Ramping Up

Good morning from New York City.

“We march because by the Grace of God and the force of truth, the dangerous, hampering walls of prejudice and inhuman injustices must fall.”

Much has changed since then, at least in how New York City conducts elections, and last week, the New York City Board of Elections released a tranche of data that sheds more insight into how—and exactly where—Zohran Mamdani won the Democratic Primary.

The data highlighted the impact of New York City Comptroller Brad Lander’s cross endorsement of Mamdani, who received another 85,000 votes when Lander was eliminated, compared to former Governor Andrew Cuomo’s 35,000. Nearly 60% of all voters included Mamdani somewhere on their ranked-choice ballot, with Lander, Council Speaker Adrienne Adams, and Cuomo coming in second, third, and fourth in that metric. Roughly 78% of primary voters took advantage of ranked-choice voting and ranked more than one candidate, but 37% of Cuomo voters “bullet voted,” meaning they only ranked him. Despite their thinly veiled public disagreements, Mamdani won House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries’ Brooklyn-based district with 46% of the vote in the first round and 56% in the final round. Mamdani won his election district in Astoria 76-10 over Cuomo, and Cuomo won his district in Midtown East 62-16 over Mamdani. The data showed that, in addition to Mamdani’s excellent movement-building campaign, the ranked-choice efforts of the Working Families Party—and the DREAM (Don’t Rank Evil Andrew Mayor) movement—were effective, though the left-leaning anti-Trump New York City electorate already self-selects that way, too. One fascinating analysis also shows that on the strength of those ranked-choice efforts, in addition to Mamdani, both Lander and New York City Council Speaker Adrienne Adams would have defeated former Governor and long-time campaign front-runner Andrew Cuomo. 

Mamdani’s campaign continues to focus on the General Election and has staffed up as they prepare for a broader electorate. The recent hires reflect that reality, with resumes that include past work with more “establishment” Democratic campaigns, including the House Majority PAC, Kamala 2024, the DNC, and Hillary 2016. Dora Pekec, an alum of Hakeem Jeffries’ super PAC, and more recently Brad Lander’s campaign communications director, is joining the Mamdani campaign as press secretary. Jeffrey Lerner, an Obama White House and DNC veteran, joined the campaign earlier this month and will serve as Communication Director, and a former press aide to Kamala Harris’s presidential campaign, Penelope Birnbaum, is joining the campaign as a press and digital assistant. The hires are further evidence of Mamdani’s desire to win over skeptical, more moderate Democrats such as Jeffries and Hochul, who have so far declined to endorse Mamdani. Maya Handa will take over as campaign manager from Elle Bisgaard-Church, who served as Mamdani’s Chief of Staff in the Assembly and was in charge during the primary campaign.

Handa was most recently the manager for state Senator Zellnor Myrie’s mayoral campaign and has previously worked for New York Rep. Jamaal Bowman and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren. Bisgaard-Church will become a chief adviser, focusing on long-term planning (specifically not transition work, since he first has to win in November, of course).

Additionally, Afua Atta-Mensah, an organizer formerly with Community Change and Community Voices Heard, is joining the campaign as its senior political director, and Deandra Khan, who previously advised the president of 32BJ SEIU, will become the campaign’s director of labor and intergovernmental affairs. Quite the impressive team to take Team Mamdani into November.

While one campaign is ramping up, another is winding down with the announcement from Rep. Mike Lawler (R-NY) that he will not run for governor in 2026 despite months of hints and public bravado. During a Fox News appearance, Lawler offered, “After months of deliberating, I've decided the right thing to do for me and my family and my district is to run for reelection.” Lawler also pointed out that his seat is one of only a handful of GOP seats across the country that Kamala Harris won in 2024, and that his reelection would be “determinative” of control of the House in 2026. The decision comes after an hour-long meeting with Trump last week, where the president urged Lawler to remain in the House and seek reelection to bolster the chances of keeping a GOP House majority.

The Hochul campaign is projecting an air of confidence and would seemingly welcome a possible Stefanik challenge, according to a conveniently “leaked” campaign memo. The document, prepared by Hochul’s campaign manager Preston Elliott, is simple in its message: “Governor Kathy Hochul is delivering for New Yorkers. Elise Stefanik is delivering for Donald Trump.”

Another interesting factor that could very well determine which party controls Congress in 2026 is redistricting. As discussed last week, the Texas state legislature is beginning the process of redrawing congressional districts outside of the usual 10-year cycle to give the GOP an advantage in 2026. The move has prompted other states, including New York, to explore a redistricting plan of their own to even the playing field. Hochul has indicated she will not back down from a fight with Texas or other GOP-controlled state legislatures, telling reporters, “All’s fair in love and war. We’re following the rules. We do redistricting every 10 years. But if there are other states violating the rules and are trying to give themselves an advantage, all I’ll say is, I’m going to look at it closely with Hakeem Jeffries.”

On the Democratic side, Lt. Governor Antonio Delgado continues to bash the administration he is nominally a part of as he ramps up his campaign to challenge Hochul in next year’s primary election. This time, Delgado has taken aim at Hochul’s handling of the state’s Consumer Directed Personal Assistance Program (CDPAP). Earlier this year, CDPAP transitioned from roughly 600 fiscal intermediaries to one this year, but the process has been riddled with administrative burdens and allegations of wrongdoing by the company selected to administer CDPAP, Public Partnerships LLC (PPL).

Delgado offered, “It’s been a failure of leadership from the very beginning. The incompetence and indifference in the grossly mismanaged way this has transpired have left folks behind by the thousands.” Last week, top executives from PPL and a private equity company with a stake in PPL left without much public explanation or indication of whether their departures were tied to the bumpy rollout in New York. The state Senate is scheduled to hold a hearing on the issue where executives from PPL and state government are expected to testify. 

-Jack O’Donnell

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