Chopping Block

Good morning from beautiful Buffalo, New York, where summer is in full bloom.

Much of the talk in New York’s political circles has been about the “One Big, Beautiful Bill” or, as Democrats are trying to rebrand it: “Republicans’ Big Ugly Bill.” Governor Kathy Hochul held a rare cabinet meeting to highlight the legislation’s “devastating impacts on New York State.” There was also some tangential talk about the explosive issue dividing the MAGA movement, or as one reporter put it: Trump stuck in a crisis of his own making that everyone saw coming.

According to Hochul’s office, the tax and spending bill puts health care coverage for over 1.5 million New Yorkers in doubt, as well as SNAP benefits for about 3 million New Yorkers. Estimating the cuts at $13 billion, Hochul directed State agencies to “prepare comprehensive strategies to help limit the long-term damage to vital programs facing federal cuts.” More details here.

In addition to the governmental impacts, Hochul is wearing her hat as leader of the New York State Democrats, using her bully pulpit to ensure that Republicans get the blame for these impacts and promising to hit the trail over the coming months to weaken GOP support in New York. In addition to the Cabinet meeting, Hochul also rallied with Democratic Rep. Pat Ryan in the Hudson Valley, coincidentally home to primary challenger Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado, as well as the front line in the battle for control of the House of Representatives in next year’s mid-term elections (Long Island is, of course, equally important). Noting that many people did not realize the impact of a Trump administration when they voted for him, Hochul declared: “To the extent that there’s intentional infliction of pain on residents in the state, we'll be sure to make sure everyone knows about that.”

Voters appear to appreciate Hochul’s feistiness, as her job approval numbers are trending upward to 52-39% in recent polling.

These impacts to New York are only increasing the chatter about lawmakers returning to Albany for a Special Session, but Senate Majority Leader Andrea Stewart-Cousins threw cold water on that last week, revealing there is no plan to bring members back into session imminently. Stewart-Cousins offered, “We are obviously ready to come back should we have to come back, [but] at this moment, that is not what we know right now. We’re willing to come back if we must.” According to an analysis by the state Department of Budget, New York is facing a $750 million budget gap in the final quarter of the state fiscal year in January as a result of the changes to Medicaid. Senator Liz Krueger, Chair of the Senate Finance Committee, believes the gap can be addressed without a Special Session, saying, “Nothing has to be cut to deal with a $750 million gap; money can be taken from the reserve fund without legislative action.” 

If Democrats are aligned in opposition to President Trump and the Republican spending bill, they are not aligned about much else. Case in point, Zohran Mamdani’s resounding mayoral primary win last month has reenergized the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA), and the group is setting its sights on other ‘establishment’ New York Democrats.

Mamdani’s allies are openly musing about running primary challenges against House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, as well as Reps. Ritchie Torres, Jerry Nadler, Dan Goldman, and Yvette Clarke. The New York City DSA Chapter Co-Chair, Gustavo Gordillo, said of Jeffries, “His leadership has left a vacuum that organizations like DSA are filling. I think that is more important right now. To me, it often seems like he is the one picking the fight with the left, and I think he should focus on fighting the right.” The Jeffries camp has not taken kindly to the open hostilities, with a senior advisor offering, “Leader Hakeem Jeffries is focused on taking back the House from the MAGA extremists who just ripped health care away from millions of Americans. However, if Team Gentrification wants a primary fight, our response will be forceful and unrelenting. We will teach them and their incumbents a painful lesson on June 23, 2026.” Team Gentrification is reportedly the nickname the Jeffries’ team has given to many of Mamdani’s far-left supporters who tend to be more white and wealthy than the historical residents of the districts they are targeting. Jefferies and Mamdani met last week privately. More to come on this.

Mamdani also met with an influential business group, The Partnership for New York City, in an attempt to assuage their concerns surrounding some of his policy proposals. In a statement, the group described the meeting as “productive,” and included discussions on “power and potential for tech, including AI, to make city government more efficient; the importance of tech to the city economy; the candidate's management experience; and tax policy, housing; public safety, and affordability in New York.” In a subsequent interview, the Partnership’s CEO, Kathryn Wylde said her members found Mamdani to be “much less scary,” and added, “This was really an introductory meeting for them to see something beyond the caricature of him that they've seen from social media reports and negative advertising.” It remains to be seen whether New York City’s business leaders will get on board with Mamdani or throw their considerable weight behind a different general election candidate. 

-Jack O’Donnell

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