Slow Going

Good morning from Buffalo, New York, where Dyngus Day is definitely a thing.

Tomorrow, the OD&A Team will join the state legislature in Albany, where the state budget is officially five days late and the discussion centers around the length of the next short-term extender rather than the substance of the budget. Furthermore, it appears little to no negotiations have happened since the last extender was passed, although the holiday weekend certainly was a factor in the absence of real discussion. Nonetheless, with no immediate end in sight, lawmakers will need a new budget extender before Wednesday to ensure payroll and other obligations are met. 

As highlighted in last week’s Monday Morning Memo, Governor Kathy Hochul’s proposal to delay and modify emissions mandates originally adopted through the Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act (CLCPA) has been one of the main issues holding up any budget movement, yet lawmakers say they have still not seen actual budget language from the Executive Chamber, which makes it difficult to negotiate. Liz Krueger, Chair of the Senate Finance Committee, told reporters last week, “We still don’t think we have full language from the governor of what she’s actually proposing. I wish I could tell you there was a specific proposal in writing to share with everyone. But we don’t have one.”

At the same time, Hochul is holding the line on her plan to lower auto insurance costs despite skepticism from colleagues in the state legislature and intense pushback from the Trial Lawyers Association. When asked about the timing of a final budget last week, Hochul offered, “We have to be louder than the special interests who are trying to hijack my agenda, which is exclusively focused on affordability for New Yorkers. Will it be done on time? I always strive for an on-time budget. It’s due April 1, but I’m just trying to persuade people that I’m fighting for New Yorkers.” 

In addition to the CLCPA amendments and auto insurance reform, Hochul and the legislature still need to reach an agreement on issues such as immigration protections, tax increases, and public-sector pension reforms.

Even with the plethora of issues still on the table, Budget Director Blake Washington is optimistic that the process will not drag into May as it did last year. Speaking to reporters at the Capitol last week, Washington said, “Once everybody returns from the holiday season, we hit the ground running, and I don’t think it should be very long after that. I don’t see any reason it should drag into a repeat of last year. That being said, the governor has been very, very clear on what her needs are out of this process.”

Of course, Senate Majority Leader Andrea Stewart-Cousins and Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie will help dictate the timing of a final budget, and both have been lukewarm on some of Hochul’s major proposals. On auto insurance reform, Heastie offered, ”The fact that if, God forbid, you are the primary reason there is an accident, you will no longer be entitled to pain and suffering. That is a pretty serious thing for people to accept.” Stewart-Cousins did not outright reject Hochul’s proposed amendments to the CLCPA, but highlighted the need to include measures aimed at addressing rising utility rates in the short-term, saying, “Any conversation has to include things that are really going to help people, I think the Assembly put something in its one-house that would offer rebates or whatever, which we are open to.” 

The politics of an election year make negotiations a little more complicated, especially for the majority members facing primaries from their left flanks, but also as a factor for Hochul. There is plenty of speculation that Hochul is happy to travel the state talking about affordability—promising savings to ratepayers on auto insurance and preventing price increases tied to climate goals—and standing as the bulwark against personal income and corporate tax increases is a place where Hochul is very comfortable. They are not wrong. She is, in her own words, “… just trying to persuade people that I’m fighting for New Yorkers.” That eliminates, or at least limits, any urgency to have a budget done soon. Pick up a good book because it may be a bit.

There is a little more action in New York City, where federal prosecutors unsealed a 20-page indictment accusing two nonprofit leaders of fraud related to their work running city-funded homeless shelters. According to a search warrant used in the investigation, federal prosecutors are also probing whether an aide to Hochul, Debbie Louis, and New York City Council Member Farah Louis (the two are sisters) accepted kickbacks in conjunction with appropriating city dollars to BHRAGS Home Care Corp. The search warrant also names Edu Hermelyn, the husband of Assembly Member Rodneyse Bichotte Hermelyn, who also serves as Chair of the Brooklyn Democratic Party. The Louis sisters have not been formally accused of any wrongdoing, but federal investigators raided both of their residences last month, seizing cell phones and other electronics. The indictment alleges that Ronald Tirelus and Roberto Samedy, who helped lead BHRAGS Home Care Corp., stole money from the non-profit and accepted kickbacks from vendors seeking to do business with BHRAGS. In a statement, a spokesman for the non-profit said, "For more than 50 years, BHRAGS has served New Yorkers in need with integrity and the highest ethical standards, and we take the allegations against Mr. Samedy seriously.” Debbie Louis has been placed on administrative leave from Hochul’s office, while Council Member Farah Louis has not been seen at City Hall since news of the investigation was made public. 

In other concerning news, New York State’s public campaign matching funds program is off to a shaky start for its first gubernatorial race, with Hochul opting out of the program and her GOP challenger, Bruce Blakeman, being denied access because of a technicality. The Public Campaign Finance Board ruled 4 to 3 on a strictly partisan vote that Blakeman was disqualified from the program because his running mate, Madison County Sheriff Todd Hood, did not submit paperwork to qualify for matching funds. This was a new requirement introduced late in 2025, and the Board did not create a form that included spaces for the governor and lieutenant governor. Further, in the past, the Board has made other candidates aware of similar paperwork errors and has allowed them sufficient time to remedy those mistakes. That courtesy—or fairness—was not extended in this case. Republican Brian Kolb, Vice Chair of the Public Campaign Finance Board and former Assembly Minority Leader, said of the decision, “This is an abomination of trying to do bureaucratic nonsense, to try to eliminate candidates for an election and it defeats the whole purpose of a public campaign finance board to give confidence to the voters, to the donors that want to participate.” The decision is a blow to the Blakeman campaign as he tries to keep pace with Hochul, who already has $20 million cash on hand. 

While Blakeman still lags in fundraising, a new poll released by Siena University last week offered some hope for his campaign. The survey found Hochul leading Blakeman 47-34%, down from the 20-point lead she held in February. In a statement, Blakeman said, “We’re closing the gap at lightning speed because New Yorkers need real relief from Kathy Hochul’s cost-of-living crisis, and they'll get it with my plan to cut income taxes, slash utility bills in half, and make New York affordable.” Hochul’s favorability rating, 45-42%, and her job approval rating, 52-40%, remain largely unchanged, but independents now favor Blakeman by seven points after favoring Hochul by five points in past polls. Hochul’s campaign released a statement after the latest poll, saying, “Every day, Kathy Hochul is delivering for New Yorkers—lowering costs, investing billions to keep families safe, and standing up to Donald Trump—while Bruce Blakeman is offering the opposite: higher prices, Medicaid cuts, and letting Trump’s ICE trample on New Yorkers’ rights. That’s how you become a six-time loser, and it’s why Blakeman is being rejected again.” It is too early to tell if this is real movement in the campaign or a reflection of the national mood. Learn more by listening to our From the Lobby podcast this week and stay tuned.

Thanks to a Good Friday confession, calm has been restored at a pub in South West England after its beloved cuddly mascot disappeared, courtesy of one too many drinks.

 -Jack O’Donnell

WATCH: PIX11’s Monica Morales is joined by Aldrin Rafael Bonilla, Executive Vice President for OD&A client, Fund for the City of New York, for a powerful conversation on the true cost of living and why nearly half of working New Yorkers are struggling to make ends meet, plus real solutions for families right now.