Beltway Battle

Good morning from Washington, D.C., where the federal government is set to shut down tomorrow night as Democrats and Republicans continue to dig in their heels.

The prospects of a bipartisan deal were severely dimmed last week when President Trump cancelled a briefly agreed to meeting with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY). Trump’s Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), Russ Vought, upped the ante on Democrats last week, announcing in a memo that OMB would enact mass firings throughout the federal workforce if there is a government shutdown.

Schumer dismissed Vought’s veiled threats, saying, “This is nothing new and has nothing to do with funding the government. Their unnecessary firings will either be overturned in court or the administration will end up hiring the workers back, just like they did as recently as today.” 

Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-ND) insisted the ball is in the Democrats’ court, saying, “I think there are off-ramps here, but I don’t think that the negotiating position, at least at the moment, that the Democrats are trying to exert here is going to get you there… we’re probably plunging forward toward the shutdown.”

Congressional Democrats have, belatedly, remained firm in their demand for increased healthcare funding and an extension of Obamacare subsidies in exchange for any Democratic votes on the “clean” seven-week continuing resolution. At a press conference last week, Jeffries offered, “There’s no trust that exists between House Democrats and House Republicans at this particular point in time, given the fact that they’ve consistently tried to undermine bipartisan agreements that they themselves have reached. Any agreement related to protecting the health care of the American people has to be ironclad and in legislation.” 

Congressional Democrats are eagerly showing their base that they are willing to fight, even if that battle is likely to end in defeat. Health care has helped save Democrats' political fortunes in the past, including control of the House in 2018 with promises to protect Obamacare, a play they hope to repeat in 2026. 

President Donald Trump is making his own path and, of course, challenging political orthodoxy by making clear that this is a shutdown with a difference. Most presidents have sought to avoid shutdowns, fearing serious harm to the economy, in no small part because millions of federal employees would be put out of work, plus a litany of other wide-ranging consequences. Conversely, the Trump administration sees the shutdown as an opportunity. By forcing a shutdown, Democrats will be handing Trump the ability to push one of his major goals: A total gutting of the federal government. Through his second term, Trump has been trying—and been repeatedly blocked by the courts—to slash federal jobs, cut services, and abolish agencies. Now he is planning to use the shutdown to go even further.

That said, late Saturday night, Trump reversed course and agreed to a meeting later this afternoon with Congressional leaders. The meeting with Speaker Mike Johnson, Senate Majority Leader John Thune, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries is set to take place less than a week after Trump abruptly canceled that previously scheduled meeting with Schumer and Jeffries.

Whether the meeting will be a true negotiating session or simply an effort by everyone involved to blame the “other side” remains to be seen.

The conclave is currently scheduled for 2 p.m. Senate Republicans are expected to put the House-passed measure up for a second vote Tuesday, just hours before the midnight shutdown deadline. 

Back in Albany, attention is turning to preparation for Governor Kathy Hochul’s State of the State address and next Executive Budget proposal, but there is still plenty of business from last year’s session to work through. Hochul and her team still need to act on the lion's share of the 856 bills that passed the Senate and Assembly last session.

Among the measures under consideration is a prison reform package that was introduced in the wake of a tumultuous stretch for the state’s prison system this past year that included several high-profile inmate deaths, as well as a wildcat strike by corrections officers. If signed by Hochul, the reform package would increase camera coverage in prisons, expand the State Commission of Correction, and empower the Attorney General to investigate and prosecute corrections officers, if necessary. 

Both chambers advanced the Medical Aid in Dying Act, legislation that would allow an individual with a terminal illness to be prescribed life-ending drugs with the approval of two physicians. There was principled opposition within the Majority Conference Democrats in the Senate and Assembly, but not enough to block the bill. Hochul has not publicly taken a position on the issue. If signed, New York would become the 12th state to legalize medically-assisted suicide.  

Hochul will also have to decide what to do with the FAIR Business Practices Act, a top priority of Attorney General Tish James, which expands the powers of the Attorney General’s Office to pursue litigation against abusive or unfair business practices. Business groups united in opposition, but an amendment to remove the private right of action from the legislation ultimately helped get it across the finish line. This legislation was brought as a reaction to the dismantling of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and the movement in Washington away from any broader consumer protections.

In welcome news for the Assembly staff that crafted many of those 856 bills, the hard working men and women in the Assembly Program & Counsel Office are getting well-deserved raises. 

-Jack O’Donnell

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