Good morning from New York City, proving once again that politics makes for strange bedfellows. Mayor Zohran Mamdani, darling of the Left and Democratic Socialists across America, hosted a cordial, backslapping meeting with Mr. MAGA himself, President Donald Trump, while the latter was in town for the United Nations General Assembly. Trump’s visit to Gracie Mansion was the first presidential visit since Mayor Ed Koch hosted President Ronald Reagan in 1981. Much to the chagrin of New York Republicans vilifying Mamdani on the campaign trail, the two charismatic leaders appeared quite congenial at their joint press conference. At one point, Trump even expressed his hope that Mamdani will be a “great mayor.” Mamdani, skillful as always, sidestepped leading questions from the press on topics where the two disagree, instead highlighting areas of potential collaboration, specifically the Sunnyside Yard project, an 180-acre train yard in Queens that could house thousands of apartments (if they can access at least $21 billion in federal support).

Speaking about the project, Trump offered, “You're going to need a lot of federal approvals and probably some federal money to do it. But it's always been a great location. I owned a building in Sunnyside. It was a great building. I know it very well.” Mamdani indicated that in their meeting, he raised the politically sensitive issue of temporary protected status for Haitians, a program the Trump administration recently canceled, as well as the importance of a free press after Trump’s decision to ban a handful of mainstream media outlets from covering him in the White House. Mamdani responded forcefully to criticism from the Left that he should have been more forceful with Trump—or should not have met with him at all—declaring, “I will continue to have conversations with the president, and frankly, anyone who can deliver relief to the people of this city.” 

1199SEIU United Healthcare Workers East, the largest healthcare union in the country, filed the requisite paperwork with the National Labor Relations Board last week to hold a union election among the 200,000 home care workers in New York’s Consumer Directed Personal Assistance Program (CDPAP). If CDPAP workers vote to join 1199SEIU, it would be the largest unionization of workers through a single election in U.S. history.

The CDPAP program, which underwent a major state overhaul last year, allows disabled individuals to use Medicaid funds to pay for home healthcare, usually provided by a family member or close friend. PPL, the fiscal intermediary that administers the CDPAP program through a state contract, said they would not stand in the way of unionization efforts, and representatives for 1199SEIU said they have received roughly 70,000 signed cards of support from workers, well beyond the one-third of workers required to trigger a union election. Yvonne Armstrong, president of 1199SEIU United Healthcare Workers East, said in a statement, “These are essential workers doing work families cannot live without, yet they are struggling to put food on their own tables.”

The unionization effort comes as Medicaid faces substantial cuts from the Trump administration, but supporters hope 1199SEIU’s political clout in both Albany and Washington will help insulate the CDPAP program from the effects. The transition from roughly 600–700 independent fiscal intermediaries (the middlemen processing payroll and records) to a single entity, PPL, was controversial among patients and caregivers who reported administrative delays, confusion, and non-payment issues following the rollout. The Trump administration has since sued New York health officials, alleging a “sham bidding process” and that PPL was “pre-selected.” Hochul has denied any wrongdoing or impropriety in the process, saying the lawsuit is a “sad attempt... to weaponize the justice system.”  

In the fast-changing world of AI—aka “Super Intelligence”—and amidst terrifying headlines, Governor Kathy Hochul announced the next steps in New York’s continuing effort to establish responsible guardrails to protect New Yorkers. Hochul announced Marc Gilman will serve as the deputy director for Responsible Artificial Intelligence Safety & Education (“RAISE”) under the State’s new Office of Digital Innovation, Governance, Integrity and Trust, also known as DIGIT, that will be responsible for overseeing the implementation of the RAISE Act. As part of that effort, the State will require large frontier AI developers to register through a state portal, enabling them to report critical safety incidents within 72 hours. Developers of frontier models will also be required to publish safety and security protocols to prevent severe harms as prescribed by the RAISE Act. In a statement, Hochul laid down the law: “Donald Trump and Washington Republicans may be standing still as AI grows more unpredictable, but New York will not. When companies are building some of the most powerful technology in the world, people deserve to know what they’re doing to keep it safe, and those companies should be held accountable when things go wrong. As this technology continues to evolve, I’ll continue working on additional steps to protect New Yorkers.”

Hochul allocated just over $10 million in the state budget to fund the implementation of the RAISE Act, with future funding for DIGIT coming from an assessment paid by the developers the agencies oversee.

Meanwhile, as the stage is set for a challenging budget next year and amid growing calls from the Left to “tax the rich,” the Citizens Budget Commission published a new data-driven report on each state’s competitiveness in taxes and spending to level-set the conversation. Unsurprisingly, New York State and its localities are the highest-taxing and second-highest-spending governments in the nation.

The report showed that New York:  

• Collected the most taxes per capita and the second most per $1,000 of personal income in the nation;

• Collected the most personal income tax per $1,000 of income among all states;

• Collected the most corporate taxes per $1,000 of state gross domestic product (GDP) in the nation;

• Spent more per capita than all states except Alaska.

Wow.

Those top-line numbers provide context for a recent Siena poll showing nearly 50% of voters believe New York is heading in the wrong direction. Hochul has tried to assuage those concerns by touting her “affordability agenda” on the campaign trail (with some success). The poll found Hochul leading GOP challenger Bruce Blakeman 50-41%, with two-thirds of voters, including 37% of Republicans, believing Hochul will ultimately win reelection. Siena pollster Steve Greenberg summarized the poll’s findings, saying, “With six weeks until election day, voters offer good news to both Hochul and Blakeman. She now has the support of 50% of voters, and her favorability and job approval ratings have edged into positive territory. He now trails by single digits—well, nine points—in a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans by more than two-to-one. At this time four years ago, Hochul led Lee Zeldin 17-points, 54-37%, before going on to win by six points.”  

A Quinnipiac University poll also released last week painted a much rosier picture for the Hochul campaign, finding her up 19 points, 58% to 39%, on Blakeman. That difference can be explained by the fact that Quinnipiac was in the field a few days later (Sept 17–20) than Siena (Sept 11–17), capturing slightly different moments in the news cycle, and each institution uses a different formula to determine what constitutes a “likely voter.” 

Worth noting that predicted turnout can be difficult, and that the electorate remains very volatile, with many miles for the candidates to travel before Election Day.

Strange bedfellows, also, in one of the most contentious House races of this cycle: Democratic Rep. Jared Golden of Maine threw a lifeline to Republican Rep. Mike Lawler, publicly endorsing him for reelection over Democratic challenger Cait Conley, a former Army officer who was deployed six times overseas.

Golden announced his endorsement in an op-ed in The Journal News in Rockland County, writing in part, “Lobster traps, union rights, and health insurance do not have much in common, except that on all three, Lawler chose to solve the problem rather than campaign on it.” Lawler was equally laudatory of Golden, posting on social media, “Time and again when we needed bipartisan compromise, Jared was always there ready to deliver. I’m honored to have earned his support.” Golden’s endorsement of Lawler is just the latest thumb in the eye to House Democratic leadership after twice voting with Republicans on procedural votes to help advance their agenda. Despite outrage from other rank-and-file House Democrats, Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries has little recourse as Golden is not seeking reelection in November. 

While the Cook Political Report rates the race as a toss-up, the prediction market site Polymarket gives Conley a 65% chance of victory. At the national level, an Emerson College Polling survey found Democrats leading Republicans 53 percent to the GOP’s 42 percent on a generic congressional ballot, up slightly from a poll last month that found Democrats leading by 8 points. The Democratic advantage largely comes from independent and Hispanic voters who supported Trump in 2024, but now prefer Democrats by 60-31% and 64-31%. 

We are also seeing polling move races towards Democrats across the House and, quite interestingly, in the Senate as well. This week alone, Cook moved the Senate races in Kansas and South Carolina from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican.” It is bad news for the GOP if they are playing defense in those two states, not to mention Iowa and Texas.

In case you missed it, tourists have begun perfecting the art of butter smuggling. 

-Jack O’Donnell