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Trump in New York, MTA Budget Hole, Albany's for the Birds

Author

Jack O’Donnell
September 23, 2024

Good morning from Buffalo, New York where the 0-2 Jacksonville Jaguars take on the 2-0 Buffalo Bills. Go Bills!

Meanwhile, in Albany, the State’s Opioid Settlement Fund Advisory Board, the group overseeing how New York spends billions of dollars in opioid settlement money, met last week ahead of the release of a report that will offer another set of policy recommendations for state officials. The 23 member group, first formed in 2022, still have practical disagreements about how to best use funding and how aggressive the Board should be in their approach. Some members, many of whom are facing the end of their two-year term, are demanding a bolder approach to tackling the opioid crisis; the group debated whether to recommend Governor Hochul declare a public health emergency which would allow, among other things, the use of overdose prevention centers throughout the state. Advisory Board member Justine Waldman offered, “I think it’s important that we are the leaders and say, 'This is what needs to change.’ We want to see health inequities disappear, and we want to see the Office of Addiction Supports and Services actually get more money than just the opioid settlement dollar funds for their budget. And I think we already know the outcome is that very little of what we say will be followed, but it’s still important that we put those policies into words.”

Opioid Advisory Board Clashes Ahead of Third Report to Hochul

The advisory group tasked with overseeing how New York should spend billions of dollars in opioid settlement cash will soon proffer another set of recommendations.

Hochul has so far rejected overdose prevention centers, that is, sites where individuals can use illicit drugs in the presence of trained medical staff. The practice remains illegal on the federal level, but two centers in New York City have operated without legal consequence for years. While support for opioid prevention centers is politically fraught, particularly in Upstate New York, advocates believe they can be a strong tool in combatting overdose rates. Based on the terms of the original settlement, New York is slated to receive another $200 million in settlement money this year, but funding will begin to fall off starting in 2025. Expect more talk—and hopefully some policy discussions—about how to address this crisis as we look to the 2025 Legislative Session.

Former President Donald Trump was, somewhat inexplicably, in New York State last week, holding a Long Island rally presumably to help boost Republican Congressional candidates in tough reelection bids. Ahead of the rally, Trump posted on social media that he will “get SALT back,” referencing the federal deduction for state and local tax payments. The 2017 tax bill, signed by Trump, capped the SALT deduction at $10,000 which disproportionately affected tax taxpayers in blue states with higher property and state income taxes. Republicans generally support the cap, but Republicans in New York and other blue states have been campaigning on lifting the SALT cap, and even tanked a number of procedural votes earlier this year as part of an unsuccessful bid to force their party to the table on SALT reform.

Trump created the controversial $10,000 SALT deduction cap. Now Trump says he wants to end it.

Republican Rep. Mike Lawler, a freshman member from the Hudson Valley said, "I'm glad to hear that former President Trump has committed to lifting the cap on SALT... Since taking office, this has been a top priority for me.” Rep. Tom Souzzi, a Democrat who won a Special Election on Long Island earlier this year following the resignation of George Santos, called on Trump to go even further if he is committed to SALT reform saying, “If [Trump] is truly serious, he should urge 100 Republicans in the House and 25 in the Senate to join me to restore the full SALT deduction now!” The SALT discussion will only continue to ramp up as the 2017 tax bill that established the current cap is set to expire next year. Trump also vowed to win New York State. He will not.

MTA Releases Proposed 2025-2029 Capital Plan

The Metropolitan Transportation Authority (MTA) released its next five-year capital plan on Wednesday, unveiling the agency’s total budget shortfall as $48 billion after Governor Hochul’s decision to delay the implementation of a new tolling program, known as congestion pricing. The $68 billion capital plan, which will fund the MTA through 2029, focuses primarily on repairs and upgrades to existing infrastructure rather than service expansions. The new plan also assumes $33 billion in support from Albany, in addition to the $15 billion that congestion pricing was expected to fund to complete projects from the 2020-2024 capital plan. The MTA’s Chief of Policy, John McCarthy, stressed the importance of funding both capital plans separately saying, “It's very important that we do keep them separate because the 2020-2024 program shortfall that exists now is not necessarily going to be cured in the budget. It’s unclear at this point, obviously, because congestion pricing is on a pause and how that unfolds, that is separate.” 

Hochul has remained confident she can fill the budget shortfall stemming from the delay of congestion pricing while also funding the State’s share of the new capital plan. In a statement, Hochul said, “From the moment I took office, I’ve fought for public transit—advancing major projects like the Second Avenue Subway and rescuing the MTA from the ‘fiscal cliff’ last year. We will review the MTA’s proposal for the upcoming 5-year capital plan and fight to secure as much funding as possible. That includes pressuring Washington to deliver additional infrastructure dollars and working with our partners in the Legislature and City Hall to determine priorities and capacity during the upcoming budget negotiations.” One of Hochul’s potential funding replacements, an increased payroll mobility tax on New York City businesses, fell through in the waning days of the legislative session, and she has yet to propose another suitable plan. A wide variety of advocacy groups submitted a joint letter to leaders in the State Legislature urging them to up the pressure on Hochul to reimplement congestion pricing writing, “The Governor’s action spells disastrous consequences for transportation in the New York metropolitan region, threatens jobs and raises major questions about the State’s commitment to its accessibility, environmental justice and climate goals.”  The MTA capital plan and congestion pricing—and the jobs the capital plan funds across New York—will be big issues this budget session.

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“We will review the MTA’s proposal for the upcoming 5-year capital plan and fight to secure as much funding as possible. That includes pressuring Washington to deliver additional infrastructure dollars and working with our partners in the Legislature and City Hall to determine priorities and capacity during the upcoming budget negotiations.”

Governor Hochul

As we lurch towards budget season in Albany and the Capitol gets busier, many visitors may notice the new and improved central courtyard… ”But whether they’ll get the chance to set foot in it, is still up in the air. It’ll depend, in part, on whether the birds will allow it.”  

The new courtyard is not the only change coming to Albany.

In a sign of the times, City Beer Hall’s famous ‘free pizza’ deal is no more. 

In Washington, D.C., lawmakers will be back in session with the goal of avoiding a government shutdown on October 1st after House Speaker Mike Johnson’s (R-La.) six-month spending plan failed amid GOP opposition last week. Johnson’s plan, which would have kept funding levels flat through March 2025, also contained a policy rider, known as the SAVE Act, that would require individuals provide proof of citizenship in order to vote in federal elections. Fourteen Republicans voted against the plan, with a handful of others voting ‘present’, over concerns that static funding levels could impact military readiness. Johnson defended his plan saying, “The play that we ran tonight was the right play. And so now we go back to the playbook. We'll draw up another play, and we'll come up with a solution. I am already talking to colleagues about many ideas. We have time.” 

The Senate, however, is not waiting around for Johnson and the House GOP to figure it out. Republican Senator Susan Collins, the Senate’s top appropriator, said she intends to move forward with bicameral negotiations and has been in touch with White House budget director, Shalanda Young. At the same time, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) has been engaged in procedural maneuvering to clear a path for a placeholder bill while the two sides work out the details. Speaking from the Senate floor on Wednesday, Schumer said, "Later today, I’ll file cloture on a legislative vehicle that will enable us to prevent a Trump shutdown in the event that the Speaker does not work with us in a bipartisan, bicameral manner. Both sides are going to spend the next few days trying to figure out the best path remaining for keeping the government open.” 

Late last night, a consensus was developing around a “clean” continuing resolution through December 20, setting up a very interesting lame-duck session. Expect a vote by mid-week that will pass with bipartisan support.

Spending Deal Averts a Possible Federal Shutdown and Funds the Government into December

Also adding to the complicated appropriations fight is the supplemental funding request from the Secret Service, totaling in the “hundreds of millions” that lawmakers are considering. Following two assassination attempts on former President Trump and a contentious political climate ahead of November’s elections, some lawmakers are pushing for increased funding totals for the agency to be included in any short-term spending bill. Asked if his conference would be open to such a request, Schumer offered, “If the Secret Service is in need of more resources, we are prepared to provide it for them, possibly in the upcoming funding bill.” 

Back on the House side, Rep. Andy Harris (R-Md.) was elected to be the the next chair of the ultra-conservative House Freedom Caucus. The former chair, Rep. Bob Good (R-Va.), lost his primary race earlier this summer after supporting Florida Governor Ron DeSantis in the Republican presidential primary drew Trump’s ire. Harris will serve through the end of 2024, at which point the group will hold another leadership election. Harris is a former appropriator and will seek to refine the group’s strategy for influencing legislation and spending bills, particularly if the Democrats hold onto the White House and Senate in November. 

 

Whether Democrats retain control of the Senate may very well depend on the outcome of Senator John Tester’s reelection bid. The Montana Democrat has carved out a reliable base of support in the solidly red state, but still finds himself in the most difficult race of his political career. His opponent, former Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy, has pulled ahead in recent polling, and the prevalence of two third-party candidates could give apathetic voters an avenue to abandon Tester and the Democrats. The third-party problem is so acute that Tester’s campaign filed a lawsuit to remove the Green Party candidate, Robert Bard, from the ballot. The challenge failed. The Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan political rating group, lists the Montana race as ‘Lean Republican.’

The Harris campaign is following the Biden playbook of embracing and promoting independent super PACs to supplement her official messaging. While the Harris campaign has plenty of cash on hand after raising an incredible $615 million since taking over as the nominee, the network of Democratic Super PACs and grassroots organizations spread out across the country are often more effective at targeting and mobilizing specific demographics in key swing states. In a statement, Harris campaign chair Jen O’Malley Dillon said, “These groups’ efforts to register voters and mobilize our broad and diverse coalition will play a critical role in winning this November.” Among these groups are American Bridge 21st Century who are active in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan, and Priorities USA, which promotes Democratic digital ads across the country. To help mobilize key constituencies, the Harris campaign has tapped Somos Votantes, which targets Latinos; AAPI Victory, which targets Asian voters; Galvanize, which targets White women in battleground states. O’Malley Dillon has said the increased fundraising push is needed to combat the steady stream of money flowing to Republican groups offering, “We’re running against an entire army of MAGA-aligned super PACs and outside groups. Already, new, billionaire-funded soft money groups are springing up at a rapid pace, trying to make up for his lack of grassroots support by raising hundreds of millions from high-dollar donors—and they are using it to attack Vice President Harris.”

While the debate earlier this month between Trump and Harris turned contentious at some points, it remained far more cordial than a recent mayoral debate in Brazil. Watch the video here.

Finally…

Rush hour train service in Britain was cancelled after two furry passengers boarded the train and “refused to leave.” 

 The story here.

ICYMI, OD&A delved into the economic opportunities ahead for the Upstate NY Tech Hub, a Buffalo, Rochester, and Syracuse collaboration on the fast-track in the semiconductor industry after securing a $40M federal grant.

And Jack is back with our first Monday Morning Minute podcast recapping last week’s newsletter. Give it a listen!

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What’s On Your Bookshelf?

This new segment to Monday Morning Memo shares with you some good reads recommended by our OD&A team! Here’s what’s on our bookshelf:

Say More by Jen Psaki: This book by Biden’s former press secretary is a great read for anyone who loves behind the scenes glimpses of politics & gov’t. The reader takes away valuable lessons & truly grasps the gravity of this role in any organization.

The Rulebreaker: The Life and Times of Barbara Walters by Susan Page: This is a riveting look at the perseverance and ambition of Walters who broke new ground, and a few rules to forward her career in the early days of TV news when women struggled for stature and respect.

Currently reading: Bitten by the Tiger by Jack O’Donnell. Jack takes you back 100+ years in this well-researched story of NY’s only impeached governor. True to his style, Jack uncovers the most intriguing nuances of each character and proves while the names have changed, the political machine remains the same.

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September 23, 1957: President Dwight D. Eisenhower orders U.S. troops to support integration of nine black students at Little Rock Central High School in Arkansas.

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