Growing Divide

Good morning, and g'mar chatima tovah to our friends observing Yom Kippur. 

Could it be an election year? Governor Kathy Hochul announced that energy rebate checks for 8.2 million eligible New Yorkers will begin hitting mailboxes next week. The state budget, passed in May, included $1 billion in funding for a Protecting Our Wallets Energy Rebate (POWER), providing $200 to joint filers with incomes under $150,000 and $150 to joint filers with incomes between $150,000 and $300,000. Single filers with incomes under $150,000 will receive $100. In a statement, Hochul declared, “As Washington Republicans continue to send the cost of everything from utility bills to gas and groceries soaring, I'll never stop working to address the rising cost of living for New Yorkers. Too many families are struggling with rising household energy bills and soaring gas prices at the pump—and that's why we're putting money directly back in New Yorkers' pockets by sending energy rebate checks to millions of families as part of our affordability agenda.”

Checks will be automatically sent to individuals who filed a timely New York State Resident Income Tax Return in 2024, were a full-time resident, reported income with qualifying thresholds, and were not claimed as a dependent on another taxpayer’s return. 

In the face of strong opposition, Hochul is charging ahead with plans to opt into a new federal school tax credit. The new program, called the Education Freedom Tax Credit, was created by Congress in last year’s HR1 spending bill and provides for a $1,700 tax credit for donations made to qualified organizations offering scholarships. Significantly, public, parochial, and private schools are eligible to participate. The intense pushback is being led by the politically potent New York State United Teachers (NYSUT). The teachers' union, joined by other public school activists including the NAACP, Al Sharpton’s National Action Network, and the NYCLU, held a rally in Manhattan last week. At the press conference, Michael Mulgrew, president of the United Federation of Teachers, said, “In every state where any of this has happened, we have had nothing but problems, and public schools have been severely hurt despite the fact that 90% of the children in America go to public schools.” American Federation of Teachers president Randi Weingarten criticized the program as meant to “take money out of public schools.” At the rally itself, Mulgrew led a chant, “Public Schools Shout, Hochul Opt-Out!”

A spokesman for Hochul, Jonah Allon, said, “Governor Hochul’s priority is making sure every student receives an education that best meets their needs, which is why she wants the federal scholarship tax credit to benefit all New York students . . . These credits have the potential to expand academic opportunity for public and private school students across our state without diverting resources from public schools or state and local budgets. All stakeholders should work together to ensure this program can be implemented to maximize benefits for all New York schools, including our public schools.” Her office also insisted that the program will not divert public funds from public schools because it is funded by donations from private individuals, not by state or federal funding, and therefore no funds are diverted from public schools. Hochul’s support has been very well received by supporters of Catholic and Jewish schools, especially New York’s Orthodox Jewish population.

Meanwhile, in Brooklyn, a group of party reformers looking to unseat Kings County Democratic Party boss Rodneyse Bichotte Hermelyn is one step closer to that goal after a judge ruled in their favor last week. Anticipating a contested chair election after a series of political defeats this year, Bichotte Hermelyn forced a vote to expand the Executive Committee, allowing her to install loyalists to shore up her support and presumably outvote the reform coalition led by Julio Peña III.

In her decision, Brooklyn Supreme Court Judge Jill Epstein wrote, “Given that the votes of these outgoing members made the difference in the passage of the rule change at the meeting, the court finds that the rule changes must be declared a nullity and a permanent injunction enjoining the implementation of these amended rules is thus warranted.” The infighting has drawn the attention of high-ranking Democrats such as Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, who would prefer to see the party presenting a unified front heading into November. The Brooklyn Democratic Party said in a statement that it plans to appeal, but under the party’s bylaws, the chair vote must take place by October 6th. 

New York Assemblymember Alex Bores, on his way out of office after losing a competitive primary for Congress this year, announced the launch of a $30 million organization aimed at uniting Democrats across the country around regulating technology and AI. Bores has emerged as one of the leading voices in the country advocating for responsible AI policy after passing a first-in-the-nation AI regulatory framework, known as the RAISE Act, in Albany last year. His new group, called “Who Decides,” will build on that momentum and support candidates pursuing similar legislation.

In a press release, the group said, “Who Decides’ goal is that by 2028, Democratic candidates from the top of the ticket on down run with a common AI safety agenda. That means addressing the harms people already see and the broader danger that increasingly powerful and out-of-control systems could destabilize our economy, our democracy, and our safety.” According to the website, Who Decides plans to be active in South Carolina, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Michigan, Virginia, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. OD&A is proud to have worked with Bores and Senate sponsor Andrew Gounardes to pass and sign the RAISE Act, and to continue advocating for successful implementation and the next steps in this existential fight.

The United States Supreme Court rejected a last-minute attempt from the Trump administration to restrict mail-in voting last week, with early voting already underway in some states. Trump signed an Executive Order in March ordering a slew of federal agencies to create state citizenship lists that would be cross-referenced with an online portal at the U.S. Postal Service, sending ballots only to voters whose information matched both lists. Opponents argued that the hastily constructed lists and underfunded Postal Service would inevitably lead to widespread disenfranchisement, and the Supreme Court ultimately agreed. Justice Brett Kavanaugh joined the majority, however, indicated that had the decision not been so close to the midterm elections, the ruling may have gone in Trump’s favor.

In a statement, New York Attorney General Letitia James said, “Today, the Supreme Court protected one of our most fundamental, inalienable rights—the right to make your voice heard at the ballot box. This last-minute change could have thrown our elections into chaos, and I am truly relieved the Court granted this reprieve. Voters should never have to wonder whether a ballot they legally cast will be counted because the federal government suddenly changed the rules. We will keep fighting to make sure every eligible ballot is counted come November.” Go Tish! 

According to a new poll from the New York Times and Siena, Trump is right to be worried about the midterms. On the generic congressional ballot, Democrats lead by nearly 9 points, the same margin as in 2018, when Democrats picked up 40 House seats. The poll found that Democrats enjoy an 8-point advantage on the cost of living, a 7-point advantage on the economy, a 24-point advantage on healthcare, a 7-point advantage on immigration, and a 10-point advantage on the deficit. Those numbers suggest strong Democratic enthusiasm, but also show signs that moderates and even some Republicans have become disenchanted with Trump. The poll found that only 54% of Republicans strongly approve of Trump, compared to 2016, 2020, and 2024 when that number was 70%.

Perhaps most surprisingly, New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani is viewed more favorably than unfavorably among registered voters across the country despite the GOP’s efforts to depict him as a socialist boogeyman. Among the poll’s respondents, 20% had a “very favorable” view, and 15% had a “somewhat favorable” opinion of the mayor. On the other hand, 4% had a “somewhat unfavorable” view, and 27% had a “very unfavorable” opinion of Mamdani.  

A Battleground District Project poll, conducted for The Cook Political Report by Democratic firm New River Strategies and Republican firm GS Strategy Group, tested the country's most competitive House districts and had similar findings to the Times poll: Democrats are in a strong position to flip control of the chamber this fall. Further, they found an electorate eager to see a new Congress do more than simply hold President Donald Trump to account, also looking for Democrats to make fundamental changes to the political system. This poll surveyed voters in the 37 districts Cook Political Report rates as Toss Up, Lean Republican or Lean Democrat. In those competitive districts, which Trump won by an average of five points in 2024, Democrats now hold a two-point advantage on the generic congressional ballot, 49% to 47%. That is, a district that Trump carried by five points in 2024 would have a Democratic advantage of two points today—a seven-point swing in Democrats’ favor.

Polls are only snapshots in time, of course, but unless circumstances change radically and quickly, it will be a very bad night for Trump. New reports suggest, at least in private, that he “has become sober about the gravity of the political situation.”

Of course, those results would also mean an exceptionally good night for Democrats. Democrats, of course, have their own headaches. Democratic Reps. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez of Washington and Jared Golden of Maine voted again to advance a package of GOP bills in a procedural vote that was otherwise on track to fail—the second time they have crossed party lines to help out House GOP leaders in recent weeks.

Earlier this month, the pair were decisive on a rule vote that allowed Republicans to advance a resolution helping lobstermen in their respective states. The move outraged many of their fellow Democrats and led to calls for House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries to dole out consequences. This time, Gluesenkamp Perez and Golden enabled GOP-led votes on bills that would give President Donald Trump new authority to sanction Russia’s trading partners, as well as measures rolling back EPA regulations. Both lawmakers cited the expanded Russian sanctions measure as the motivation behind their vote, with Gluesenkamp Perez saying in a statement, “I’m proud to represent one of the largest Ukrainian communities in America—people who have lost fathers, mothers, sons, and daughters in the fight to defeat fascism. I’ll always stand with my community’s values, and am grateful for the 86 senators who voted to send this bill to the House. My vote today gets us one step closer to enacting these sanctions into law, and I look forward to voting tomorrow to cut off the flow of Russian oil money fueling this war.” When the duo jumped ship the first time, Jeffries promised a “serious response,” though none has been apparent. Jeffries will be hoping for as large a majority as possible. 

-Jack O’Donnell

OD&A was on hand as Assemblymember Karen McMahon made her first visit to Heritage Christian Services in Amherst, learning more about the agency’s work serving people with intellectual and developmental disabilities across New York. The Heritage team also thanked the Assemblymember for championing the 2.7% cost-of-living increase in the current state budget, which helps offset rising operational costs and provide wage increases for Direct Support Professionals.

O’Donnell & Associates was there as the New York League of Conservation Voters (NYLCV) held its Buffalo Cocktail Party, bringing together business leaders, elected officials, and community partners committed to clean air, clean water, and environmental protection. NYLCV is New York’s only statewide environmental organization focused on advancing clean water, clean air, renewable energy, and open space through political action.

OD&A’s Ralph Ortega joined the United Way’s evening of “partnership, progress, and gratitude” in Albany and was welcomed by Therese Daly. Not just the president and CEO of this incredible organization, but also his good friend and ally. Time for advocacy! Let’s get to work!