Horse Race

Post-Presidential Debate Bounce, Cuomo in the Hot Seat, House Budget Setback

Author

Jack O’Donnell
September 16, 2024

Good morning from Watkins Glen, New York where Chris Buescher makes a last-lap pass to win NASCAR’s Go Bowling at the Glen at Watkins Glen International.

The first, and likely only, debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump took place last week in Philadelphia. The debate was the first time the two had ever met in person, and a key opportunity for both candidates to make their case to the American people, with over 67 million people tuning in live. 

TV Ratings: Harris-Trump Debate Draws 67M Viewers, Soars Past June Biden Face-Off

ABC produced the event, which was simulcast on multiple networks.

Objective analysts—and even many Republicans—recognized that Harris won the night, successfully baiting Trump into trivial issues including crowd size at his rallies and migrants eating household pets. Harris, who still presents more ‘unknowns’ for voters compared to Trump, laid out a handful of policy proposals, including a $6,000 child tax credit, $25,000 in down payment assistance for qualified first-time homebuyers, and reaffirmed her support for the stalled Senate bill that would increase personnel and resources at the Southern border. In a show of confidence, the Harris campaign immediately called for another debate which Trump rejected, contending that he won the debate and that there is no need for another one. In a lengthy post on Truth Social, Trump said, "Because we've done two debates and because they were successful, there will be no third debate. Too late anyway, the voting has already begun.” 

O’Donnell & Associates, LLC on LinkedIn: Is Kamala Harris ready to be President?

Our Jack O’Donnell joins the team at News 4 Buffalo for debate analysis.

While it is too early to tell what impact, if any, the debate will have on swing states or national polling, the contrast between Harris’ and Biden’s respective debate performances continues to fire up already energized Democrats. The Harris campaign announced it had raised $47 million in the 24 hours following the debate from nearly 600,000 grassroots donors. In a statement, Campaign Chair Jen O’Malley Dillon offered, “While our fundraising program continues to show historic strength, this momentum cannot be taken for granted. We cannot underestimate the strength of Team Trump and their strong fundraising and organizing efforts intentionally designed to divide and sow doubt among Americans. We cannot let up until we defeat Trump once and for all this November.” 

With just 49 days until Election Day, and with early voting already underway in some states, Harris and Trump remain in a statistical dead heat in national polling averages. There is still a long way to go and every day brings new endorsements, bizarre revelations—some true and many not—and, again yesterday, violent threats all the while nefarious actors continue to sow doubts about the safety and validity of the voting. Any hope for a substantial discussion of issues may be out of reach, but here’s hoping for the safety of all candidates and everyone participating in this political process.

Meanwhile, former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo was in Washington, D.C. last week testifying before the House Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Pandemic. Cuomo accused Republicans on the panel of holding the hearing for political gain, but even fellow Democrats had harsh words for Cuomo’s mistakes and the lack of transparency surrounding his Covid-era nursing home policies. The top ranking Democrat on the panel, Rep. Raul Ruiz (D-Calif.) offered, “Any public official who sought to obscure transparency or mislead the American people during the Covid-19 pandemic should answer to the American public—regardless of political party.” Cuomo largely laid the blame at the feet of Donald Trump saying, “His lies and denials delayed our response, let the virus spread and this country never caught up” and later adding, “This subcommittee, run by Republicans, repeats the Trump lies and deceptions.” Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) leaned into the opportunity to spar with Cuomo, telling him, “You will never hold elected office again,” in reference to the reports that Cuomo is considering a run for New York City mayor (see Quote of the Week). 

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“Any public official who sought to obscure transparency or mislead the American people during the Covid-19 pandemic should answer to the American public—regardless of political party.”

Rep. Raul Ruiz (D-Calif.)

Also in Washington, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) was forced to pull his six-month short-term Continuing Resolution—a spending plan that would punt the funding issue to March 2025—after a number of Republicans announcing their opposition (combined with unanimous opposition from House Democrats) demonstrated that the measure would fail on a floor vote. The funding measure also included a policy add-on that would require proof of citizenship in order to vote in federal elections, which Democrats have said is repetitive (you already have to be a citizen to vote in elections) and will lead to voter suppression. While Johnson knows Democrats will not support the policy add-on, he is hoping that the threat of a government shutdown on October 1st will force Democrats to abandon their demand for a funding plan that expires in December while they still control the White House and Senate. 

Speaker Johnson postpones vote on a bill to avoid a partial government shutdown.

A December deadline is more likely given that Johnson’s only leverage in pushing for the March deadline—the threat of a government shutdown—is something neither side wants. Even in the best case scenario for Republicans in November, they will not win the supermajority that would be needed to pass a full appropriations package without some measure of bipartisan support. Some defense-minded Republicans would prefer a shorter-term funding bill, citing concerns about keeping military funding flat for the next six months. There are also political considerations for Johnson who must weigh the impact a government shutdown on the eve of an election would have on his vulnerable members. 

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries made it clear his conference will not support the March deadline, calling on Republicans to offer a bill “that will permit us to complete the appropriations process during this calendar year and is free of partisan policy changes.” The Biden Administration has already promised a veto if the short-term bill drags into 2025 and does not include supplemental funding for disaster aid and increased funding for the VA. 

U.S. House of Representatives

The funding fight will take up most of the oxygen in DC through Election Day, but the lame duck session has the potential to be eventful. The farm bill, a must-pass piece of legislation that sets agricultural policy every five years, must be reauthorized before the end of September if a final bill is not passed by then. Another piece of must-pass legislation, the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), expires at the end of the year and the House could pursue trade measures aimed at China in the hopes of getting them included in the final NDAA. Both Democrats and Republicans are expected to continue work on their respective tax bills ahead of next year’s looming fight when the Trump-era tax cuts are set to expire. The lame duck session is also traditionally when retiring members make a last-minute push to get their policy priorities over the finish line. Among the issues being pushed by this year’s retiring class are Sen. Joe Manchin’s (D-W.V.) energy permitting reform plan and cryptocurrency regulation pushed by Rep. Patrick McHenry (R-N.C.). 

In case you missed it, thousands attended a funeral celebration for Red Hugh O’Donnell in Valladolid, Spain. 

The Prince of Donegal fled Ireland after the defeat of Irish forces at the Battle of Kinsale. He and Phillip III of Spain were planning a new invasion when O’Donnell was poisoned by an agent of the English crown.

Finally…

Farewell to actor James Earl Jones who, among other notable roles, was the voice of Darth Vader.

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OD&A in the News

OD&A’s Marc Cohen Named 2024 Albany 40 Under 40 Honoree

OD&A is proud to announce that Marc J. Cohen, the newest member of our team has been recognized as a rising star in New York State politics on City & State NY’s 2024 Albany 40 Under 40 list.

City & State NY writes: In September, political strategist Marc Cohen joined O’Donnell & Associates as vice president of government affairs. The move was momentous in more ways than one: for the first time since college, Cohen isn’t working for his longtime mentor, Greater Rochester Chamber of Commerce President and CEO (and former Lt. Gov.) Bob Duffy.

“It’s definitely bittersweet,” says Cohen, who served as Duffy’s chief of staff, representing some 1,300 members across the chamber’s nine-county Finger Lakes region. “Bob taught me a massive amount, and prepared me to take this next step.”

Cohen, 29, got hooked on politics as a child in Amherst, New York, watching “The West Wing” alongside his father. In high school, he interned for Kathy Hochul in Congress. “I was 16, and I had a house.gov email address,” he recalls. “How cool is that?”

He first interned for Duffy while studying political science at the University at Albany. He also became a politician himself, having plunged into SUNY student politics. Visiting the system’s 64 campuses as a trustee was “such a cool way to see New York state,” he says. It also prepared Cohen for his later role as a liaison between the region’s diverse businesses and the governor’s office, most notably during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Being an advocate for the upstate economy and working on projects like bringing the 2023 PGA Championship to Rochester exemplify the positivity Cohen first admired as a child watching “The West Wing.” “It showed the best of government,” he says, “and its power to do good.”

NY SMART I-Corridor Tech Hub

OD&A is back with another podcast episode on the Upstate NY Tech Hub, a Buffalo, Rochester and Syracuse collaboration on track to become one of the leaders in the nation’s semiconductor industry now that it has secured a $40M federal grant.

The major investment in the New York Semiconductor Manufacturing and Research Technology Innovation Corridor (NY SMART-I Corridor) consortium will create a globally competitive center of semiconductor workforce development, innovation, and manufacturing.

OD&A is highlighting our partners across the Upstate NY region who are participating in this exciting venture, as they join us ‘From the Lobby.’ Previous episodes include: Dottie Gallagher, President and CEO of the Buffalo Niagara Partnership and Dr. Joseph Stefko, President and CEO of OneRoc.

Listen this week as our Alec Lewis goes ‘From the Lobby’ with Rob Simpson, President/CEO of CenterState CEO, as he breaks down the tremendous opportunities the Upstate NY Tech Hub will bring to the Syracuse region and beyond.

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'No Longer the Eyesore,' Buffalo Plant Plans More Upgrades

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The new collection from OD&A client, New Era is a 50-piece line that includes a range of elevated essentials, from jerseys and outerwear to workwear, bottoms, and headwear.

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What’s On Your Bookshelf?

This new segment to Monday Morning Memo shares with you some good reads recommended by our OD&A team! Here’s what’s on our bookshelf:

Fear and Loathing on the Campaign Trail ‘72 by Hunter S. Thompson: These are the articles that Thompson wrote for Rolling Stone while covering the 1972 election campaign of President Nixon and his unsuccessful opponent, Senator McGovern.

I Am Invited to a Party! by Mo Willems: Piggie is invited to her very first party. But what will she wear? Gerald, the party expert, knows just how to help… or does he? A favorite read for my three children!

This Day in History

September 16, 1908: William Durant, a high school dropout who made a fortune on horse-drawn carriages, spends $2,000 to create future auto giant, General Motors.

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