Political Battlefield

Good morning from Buffalo, New York, where Grover Cleveland launched his meteoric political career. In 1894, as president, Cleveland signed legislation declaring Labor Day a national holiday. 

In New York and elsewhere, the politics continues. Governor Kathy Hochul released her first campaign ad, signaling at least a soft launch of her reelection campaign. The theme is, “Don’t mess with a mom from Buffalo.” The spot portrays Hochul as a tough bulwark against the Trump administration, who is not afraid of the fight. The ad features a markedly different tone than previous Hochul campaign ads, leaning into her recent tough talk towards the Trump administration, especially her dare to Trump border czar Tom Homan to arrest her. In addition to the ad, Hochul’s campaign is staffing up. Stacy Lynch, Hochul’s Chief of Staff in the Executive Chamber, is leaving that position and will serve as a senior advisor to the campaign. 

Nonetheless, Hochul’s reelection prospects are largely tied to how she governs over the next twelve months, and much of that governing will be in response to decisions made in Washington. Hochul must navigate a looming state budget challenge that projects a $34.3 billion gap through FY 2029, all while staying true to her promise not to raise taxes on New Yorkers. She will also have to deal with the associated fallout from the recently passed federal spending bill that is set to impact everything across the state, but especially in the healthcare and energy sectors. That said, some of the hardship is homegrown. According to the Empire Center, Hochul had a Medicaid spending problem long before the Trump administration took office. According to their recent report, state Medicaid spending has grown by 61% over the past five years. That spending increase has resulted in New York having the largest per capita Medicaid budget in the country, as well as the largest per capita healthcare workforce in the country, yet the state’s hospital system consistently receives low quality ratings, and the cost of home healthcare remains prohibitively expensive. Stay tuned to see whether Hochul proposes a fix in this year’s budget, if she decides to wait past reelection, or for some future help from a more friendly federal administration. 

Another challenge for Hochul is consolidating her political support within the fractious New York Democratic Party, a difficult task made no easier by Assembly Member Zohran Mamdani’s win in the New York City mayoral primary earlier this summer. Mamdani’s victory has been met with a lukewarm acceptance from most “establishment” Democrats, including Hochul, House of Representatives Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries, and United States Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer. All are trying to balance Mamdani’s undeniable appeal to younger voters with a more moderate electorate elsewhere in the state and country. New York City Mayor Eric Adams hopes to exploit that tension to boost his electoral prospects in November, telling Jeffries that his voters are not in line with many of Mamdani’s signature policy proposals. Adams offered, “Those communities don't believe prostitution should be on their streets, like [Mamdani] does. They don't believe in defunding the police, like he does. They don't believe in getting rid of all misdemeanors, like he does. It would be challenging to endorse his policies that are really anti-what working-class people want.” 

The comments were in response to a recent meeting between Jeffries, Mamdani, Rep. Yvette Clarke, and leading Black clergy at a Brooklyn church last week. This was the second meeting between Mamdani and Jeffries. Jeffries, who has not endorsed in the race, said, “I don’t think we’ve withheld an endorsement; we are engaging in a conversation about the future of New York City. I’ve raised several of the issues with him privately, as well as publicly spoken about some of the concerns that I’ve had. But at this particular moment, we’re going to keep those conversations moving forward.” A lot is at stake here.

Across the Hudson River, the New Jersey gubernatorial race is shaping up as the marquee national race of 2025. Democratic nominee and current Rep. Mikie Sherrill maintains a single-digit lead in the polls over Republican nominee Jack Ciattarelli to replace outgoing Governor Phil Murphy, a Democrat. Last week, Sherrill rejected Ciattarelli’s call to increase the number of televised debates, saying, “New Jerseyans know Jack Ciattarelli is ‘100% MAGA’ and doesn’t have the courage to disagree with Trump on one single issue. Mikie will take on anyone—from special interests to her own party—to make New Jersey more affordable, and defend our state from Trump’s attacks, and she looks forward to participating in the two general election debates as sanctioned by the NJ Election Law Enforcement Commission.” Perhaps more consequentially, New Jersey Democrats were successful in their efforts to kick a third-party candidate off the ballot, giving Sherrill more margin for error in what is expected to be a tight race. Green Party candidate Lily Benavides had a number of her ballot signatures disqualified, putting her well below the 2,000 signatures needed to appear on the ballot. 

As Republicans move forward with their national gerrymandering offensive ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, Democrats are looking to take advantage of a gift in an unexpected place. A Utah district court judge ruled last week that the state’s current congressional districts, all held by Republicans, are unconstitutional and must be redrawn. The new map could result in a new competitive seat in the Salt Lake City metro area, once represented by former Rep. Ben McAdams, a conservative Democrat. The GOP has now turned its attention to Indiana after Texas Republicans successfully passed new, increasingly partisan maps. President Trump and Vice President Vance hosted Indiana’s Republican legislative leadership at the White House last week to discuss the prospect of mid-decade redistricting to shore up a GOP majority for the second half of Trump’s last term in office. Indiana Republicans are not completely sold on the issue, and Indiana Senate President Pro Tempore Rodric Bray downplayed the prospect of restricting, saying, “While redistricting did come up and members were able to ask questions, we spent the bulk of our afternoon discussing issues like energy, immigration, and preventing waste and fraud in government.” Missouri Republicans are also getting into the game, calling a Special Session of the Legislature to address redistricting.

Another place Democrats are looking for hope? Iowa. Democrats have done well in special elections since President Donald Trump took office, most recently in Iowa. Democrat Catelin Drey defeated her Republican opponent, Christopher Prosch, in a district that Trump won by 11 points last November. Drey’s unexpected victory also breaks the supermajority Republicans currently enjoy in the state Senate. In a statement, Iowa Democratic Party Chair Rita Hart said, “Our state is ready for a new direction and Iowa Democrats will keep putting forward candidates who can deliver better representation for Iowans.” On top of that, Sen. Joni Ernst announced she will not seek reelection. A statewide win in Iowa would be an exceptionally tall order, but any open seat is, in theory, an opportunity.

-Jack O’Donnell

Which political party is more unified, Democratic or Republican?