Political Staredown

Good morning from Buffalo, New York. 

Tomorrow marks a week since the federal government shutdown, with both sides fighting furiously to win the messaging war and assign blame across the aisle. Republicans are calling it the “Schumer Shutdown” and claim Democrats are fighting for healthcare for illegal immigrants, while Democrats insist they are pushing for broader healthcare protections, as healthcare impacts in the wake of legislation Republicans passed earlier this year are soon to take effect.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) says it is up to Democrats to concede and reopen the government, offering, “I think there are a lot of Democrats who want out of this, you know, grapple that Schumer is running now, so I'm hoping that perhaps that will lead somewhere. But it all starts with what I've said before, reopen the government, and I think that's what we got to have… happen first.” Some GOP Senators have expressed an openness to addressing healthcare, but not under the threat of a government shutdown. Senator Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) said, “If you want to talk about how to hold down people’s health care premiums, I’m all for that. If you want to talk about how to protect rural hospitals, I’m here for that. But I don’t understand what shutting down the government has to do with that. I don’t get why the two things are linked.” 

Doubling down on that, House GOP leadership told rank-and-file Republican lawmakers Saturday morning that they will only come back to Washington when Senate Democrats reopen the government. Speaker Mike Johnson told lawmakers he believes the GOP is winning the messaging fight on the shutdown. The House Republican Conference largely supported the leadership's strategy on the call. House Majority Leader Steve Scalise said he will give members 48-hour notice before they have to return to Washington.

The Trump Administration is doing what it can to further exert leverage over Democrats with the announcement from Office of Management and Budget head Russ Vought that he was freezing $18 billion previously appropriated by Congress for infrastructure projects in New York City. On X, Vought posted: “Roughly $18 billion in New York City infrastructure projects have been put on hold to ensure funding is not flowing based on unconstitutional DEI principles.” The funding freeze will impact two major transportation infrastructure projects in New York City—the Gateway Tunnel under the Hudson River and the Second Avenue Subway project—a major priority for Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer.

In a statement, Governor Kathy Hochul said, “Every New Yorker should be outraged. From the construction worker who could lose their job, to the commuter stuck on a delayed train, to the families who rely on brave law enforcement officers to keep them safe. I will not sit idly by while Donald Trump defunds public safety and lets our infrastructure crumble. We will use every tool available to us to restore this funding and ensure that these critical infrastructure projects get built and keep every New Yorker safe.” 

The White House tried to squeeze New York further by withholding $187 million in counterterrorism funding, which they have since reversed following intense pressure from Hochul, the New York Police Department, and vulnerable House GOP members.

The 86% funding cut would have resulted in a $100 million cut to the NYPD, a projected $15 million cut to the FDNY, a projected $13 million cut to joint task forces, and downstream effects for sheriffs’ and local police departments. In a statement, the Department of Homeland Security said, “While FEMA’s initial allocation fully met program requirements, after consultation with federal partners and in recognition of our critical security partnership with New York, FEMA is providing access to $136 million, bringing the State Homeland Security funding to $187 million to ensure it has the resources needed to counter and combat evolving threats.” Hochul celebrated the reversal, offering, “From the moment these devastating cuts were announced, I made it clear that New York would not stand by while our law enforcement and counterterrorism operations were defunded. I’m glad President Trump heard our call and reversed course, ensuring our state has the resources necessary to support law enforcement and keep our families safe. Because of our efforts, $187 million in critical funding will be restored—a victory for public safety and for every New Yorker who depends on our brave law enforcement and first responders to keep our state secure.” 

Democrats are banking on public support—and the type of public pressure that caused a swift reversal of those Homeland Security cuts—to worry swing district House members enough to move the needle. It is early in this shutdown, and so far, relatively few Americans say either party’s positions are worth a shutdown, but many are still making up their minds, hence the frenzied messaging battles. That said, there is a little hopeful sign for Democrats in some early polling. A recent CBS News poll found that 39% of voters blame President Trump and Republicans in Congress the most for the shutdown. On the other hand, 30% placed blame on the Democrats. Worse, 31% blame BOTH EQUALLY. More here.

Early days, so buckle up for a long protracted battle here with little to no incentive for either side to move on . . . yet.

Finally, an election that’s for the birds.

-Jack O’Donnell

OD&A Managing Partner Jack O’Donnell and Senior Advisor Kara Hughes were proud to celebrate the 30th anniversary of Bruce Morrison’s groundbreaking contribution to U.S. immigration reform. As the architect of the Morrison Visa Program, Bruce opened doors for thousands of Irish immigrants, strengthening Irish-American ties and shaping national immigration policy. His legacy of public service, legal advocacy, and bipartisan leadership continues to inspire and impact communities on both sides of the Atlantic.

Do you think the Democratic Party in New York can flip seats in the House of Representatives in next year’s General Election?