Speaker At Last

New Speaker, NY Economy, Remembering Camille

Author

Jack O’Donnell
October 30, 2023

Leader McConnell and Speaker Johnson

Good morning from Washington, D.C. where after 22 days and three failed nominees (nominee #3 House Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-Minn.) made it only four hours!), the House of Representatives has a new Speaker: Mike Johnson, a mild-mannered conservative Republican from Louisiana serving only his fourth term in Congress. Johnson, previously a Deputy Whip and Vice Chair of the House Republican Conference, has been a member of the House Judiciary Committee as well as the Select Subcommittee on the Weaponization of the Federal Government.

A well-liked member of leadership, Johnson is seen by his colleagues as policy focused as well as a principled conservative. Among the various Republicans who sought the Speakership, Johnson has the most accomplished legislative record, having 6.5% of his sponsored bills become law. A social conservative, Johnson has been a vocal opponent of gay marriage and a supporter of banning abortion. He typically votes in line with his Republican colleagues and has a 92% rating from the American Conservative Union and 90% from Heritage Action and is known for placing his Evangelical Christianity at the center of his political life and policy positions.

In addition to the sighs of relief from Republicans and many of us across America, you may have heard shouts of joy from the Trump wing of the party. Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla), who started all this with his motion to vacate against then-Speaker Kevin McCarthy, said, “If you don’t think moving from Kevin McCarthy to ‘MAGA Mike Johnson’ shows the ascendance of this movement and where the power in the Republican Party truly lies, then you’re not paying attention.”

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“If you don’t think moving from Kevin McCarthy to ‘MAGA Mike Johnson’ shows the ascendance of this movement and where the power in the Republican Party truly lies, then you’re not paying attention.”

Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla)

Former President Donald Trump also labeled the new speaker as “MAGA Mike Johnson” in a social media post. Johnson was a leading voice supporting Trump’s claims to have won the 2020 election, that COVID was a hoax and vaccines are dangerous, and even described the January 6th insurrection as a “legitimate protest.”

That may be a problem for the more moderate Republicans, especially vulnerable New York Members. In fact, as Republican Rep. Mike Lawler cast his vote for Rep. Mike Johnson for Speaker of the House, Rep. Nydia Velázquez yelled out “bye-bye.”

To be clear, Republicans of every stripe were united behind Johnson, both to get the House back to work and because Johnson is, as Lawler tweeted, “unfailingly kind, smart, principled.”

In fact, some moderates argue the new Speaker is their opportunity to shape the Republican agenda: “We have to speak up,” said Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R-Ore.). “We’re a strong voice as majority makers. Now’s the time to express it with a new Speaker.” Rep. Mike Garcia (R-Calif.) said his vote for Johnson was not a “concession to the far-right.” He wants to see Johnson make a concerted effort to listen to those in purple districts. “It’s critically important we message correctly,” Garcia said. “We have to be mindful that there are still those in swing districts that need to be able to navigate some of these issues.”

Rep. John Duarte (R-Calif.) offered a distinction between conservative fiscal policy and social policy saying, “If the conservative majority starts to feed us things that are socially conservative and messaging bills that we don’t want to sign on to, well, then they’ll get some pushback.”

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“If the conservative majority starts to feed us things that are socially conservative and messaging bills that we don’t want to sign on to, well, then they’ll get some pushback.”

Rep. John Duarte (R-Calif.)

With 18 Republicans representing Congressional Districts won by Biden in 2020 to only 5 Democrats in Trump districts that will be important if Republicans are to hold the House in 2024. As of this week, the Cook Political Report rates 14 Republican seats as toss-up races compared to 5 for Democrats.

The other big issue that may influence more votes than tying endangered incumbents to Johnson’s socially conservative views, is what Johnson does as Speaker. Government funding runs out in 19 days though Johnson has proposed a continuing resolution through January 15 or April 15 to avoid being jammed by the Senate at the end of the year while also pledging the House will finish the 7 remaining appropriations bills by November 17th.

Government funding runs out in 19 days though Johnson has proposed a continuing resolution through January 15 or April 15.

That said, effective governing will require Johnson to work closely with GOP leaders in the Senate, some of whom did not even know the Louisiana Republican before this week. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has never even met Johnson while others have raised doubts about Johnson’s ability to work across the aisle. “To pass anything, you have to get Democratic votes. You don’t have to be Einstein’s cousin to figure that one out,” said GOP Sen. John Kennedy, a fellow Louisianan. “I just don’t know how he’s going to handle it. [Nov.] 17 is coming, the world’s on fire, the border’s open and inflation continues to gut the American people like a fish… All this has to be addressed.”

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“To pass anything, you have to get Democratic votes. You don’t have to be Einstein’s cousin to figure that one out.”

Sen. John Kennedy (R-LA)

Senate Minority Whip John Thune said, “We need somebody to work with and somebody who could get the House functioning again.”

The other big issue is Biden’s $105 billion national-security funding request. McConnell and other Republican leaders support the idea of linking aid for Israel and Ukraine in one bill while Johnson has voted against Ukraine aid. “The question is whether — with a majority of his conference generally supporting Ukraine aid before you even go to the Democrats who also support it — what does he do?” Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) said of Johnson. “He’s going to get a chance to prove it pretty quickly.”

Speaker Johnson also faces some logistical challenges, as well. Usually, new Speakers take office having spent years in the leadership or at least on a House Committee assembling a top-flight staff, an extensive political infrastructure and a deep donor network. Speaker Mike Johnson has a staff of 12.

Eight of Johnson’s aides started working for the Louisiana Republican in 2023. He’s raised just $553,000 this year. Compare that to the $16 million former Speaker Kevin McCarthy raised in the third quarter alone.

Mike Johnson’s ascension is already sparking a cash frenzy

But there are doubts the new speaker can match Kevin McCarthy's fundraising prowess.

In Johnson’s previous role as Conference Vice Chair, his main job was scheduling one-minute speeches on the floor and urging members to pen op-eds. Johnson created a contest whereby the best orators and op-ed writers got mini statues of historical figures such as John Adams and Patrick Henry. During football season, Johnson handed out signed footballs.

Johnson was on the edge of the House GOP leadership. He served on the Steering Committee, which chooses committee assignments, and attended the Elected Leadership Council meetings, but he was not a part of the Daily Management Meeting, the nucleus of the House Leadership.

The transition will take time and effort for Johnson to build an operation. It takes a lot of skilled people to run the Speaker’s Office including a more extensive communications operation, a member services team, and a very extensive political operation including numerous fundraisers. All while getting the House up and running and negotiating with the Senate and White House.

Members went home for the weekend, but will have votes beginning on Wednesday.

The transition will take time and effort for Johnson to build an operation. It takes a lot of skilled people to run the Speaker’s Office including a more extensive communications operation, a member services team, and a very extensive political operation including numerous fundraisers.

Back in New York, State Comptroller Tom DiNapoli issued a report with some good news regarding New York City’s recovery and what that means for all of New York State, including 43 percent of total statewide collections, nearing pre-pandemic levels.

The report showed that after a pandemic slowdown, NYC is back as the State’s economic engine. Highlights include New York City’s gross domestic product rising 8.2 percent from 2017 to 2022. There were concerns, as well, about more families in poverty and the cost of housing.

To close today’s Monday Morning Memo, I would like to share a few thoughts about my friend Camille Brandon. Most of you know by now that Camille passed away suddenly last week.

Camille was a valued member of our team. She brought an unbridled enthusiasm to everything she did, especially to representing our clients and to supporting political causes and candidates for office. Her greatest talent was with people, identifying the right candidates at the right time and then doing or helping them do what it took to win.

Here are what a few of those candidates had to say about her:

Thank you Senator Chuck Schumer for this wonderful tribute to our beloved Camille.

That talent was not reserved for candidates. She was a mentor to staffers and citizens and activists. That was clear to every member of OD&A and especially to me. When I was breaking into politics, she would introduce me to people I needed to know, share backstories (and gossip), offer advice and—as was too often necessary with me—kind corrections and suggestions for improvement. She was infallible when it came to providing “victims” for various press conferences, including seniors, college students, motorists paying too much for gas, and, well, you get the idea. She once picked up 30 pounds of White Star kielbasa at the airport and spent the night cooking it for a cook-off at the Cheektowaga Polish Festival.

Camille was a trailblazer for women in politics and accomplished amazing things inside and outside of government. She has been a fixture in Western New York politics for decades. She served as Deputy County Clerk under both former Congressman Chris Jacobs and now Governor Kathy Hochul. Camille was a key member of Erie County Executive Dennis T. Gorski’s campaigns and his administration. Her role and voice in Democratic politics included serving multiple times as a Delegate to the Democratic National Convention, as a longtime fixture on the New York State Democratic Committee, and in various leadership roles in her local party.

Camille’s influence will continue to be felt everywhere from Cheektowaga to the Capitols in Albany and Washington, especially with those of us who got to know her and were able to count her as our friend.

Camille with Buffalo Zoo President/CEO Lisa Smith

Camille thought all of our clients were amazing, carrying their concerns on her back and fighting tenaciously for them every single day. So many of you have sent kind remembrances and thoughtful messages. (You can read some of these heartfelt words on our social media platforms, including X and LinkedIn.) Thank you. I will be in touch to discuss how we cover her many responsibilities.

She was part of the OD&A team from the beginning, and we will continue to carry her with us in our hearts. In their eulogy, her children challenged us to take up one of her traits. She was the first to every event, fundraiser, and state committee meeting and always the last one to leave and we rededicate ourselves to carrying on that indominable work ethic and, like Camille, always with a smile.

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