Heavy Turnout

Good morning from Buffalo, New York where I am speaking to 400 K-8 students this morning about elections. Wish me luck.

Speaking of elections. . . Election Day is just a week away, but voting is happening now. Over 40 million mail-in or early in-person votes have been cast nationally, with 42% coming from registered Democrats, 40% from registered Republicans, and 18% from unaffiliated voters. Requests for mail-in ballots from registered Democrats far outpaced requests from Republicans, with 45% of the 59,680,168 requests coming from Democrats, compared to 25% from Republicans. In Pennsylvania, where Vice President Kamala Harris held a rally yesterday, Democrats maintain a 2-1 advantage over Republicans in mail-in and early voting, though that trend is largely in line with previous election cycles. 

What will happen? Well, election officials in key swing states are warning voters that definitive results may not be available for days—and possibly weeks—after November 5th. Each state has different laws as to how and when mail-in ballots can be counted while the growth of mail-in voting has increased the time needed to project winners on Election night. In Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, two swing states that could sway the presidential race (and Senate control), election officials will not start processing absentee ballots until the morning of November 5th and votes cannot be officially tabulated until polls close at 8 p.m. local time. Arizona allows mail-in ballots to be counted as they are received, however, ballots left in drop boxes cannot be collected and counted until after the polls close. A handful of states, including Michigan, North Carolina, and Nevada, enacted changes following 2020 allowing ballot counting to be started earlier which election officials hope will lead to more timely reporting. Have your refrigerators stocked, it might be a long wait.

You can check your voter registration and find your polling precinct here. 

Presidential election years often contain an “October surprise”—an event or news story that the other campaign hopes will shake up the race in its final days. Most voters have their minds made up about former President Donald Trump after he has dominated the American political arena for the last decade, but the Harris campaign is hoping recent comments from Trump’s former Chief of Staff can help peel away some of his less enthusiastic supporters, especially among moderate Republicans. John Kelly, a retired U.S. Marines Corp general and Trump’s longest-serving Chief of Staff, said in a pair of interviews that his former boss was “certainly an authoritarian” and likely met the definition of a fascist, before sharing numerous first-hand accounts where he witnessed Trump’s worst tendencies.

The Harris campaign seized on the opportunity, quickly executing an unplanned press conference outside her Washington, D.C. residence where Harris said, “Donald Trump is increasingly unhinged and unstable. And in a second term, people like John Kelly would not be there to be the guardrails against his propensities and his actions. People who once tried to stop him from pursuing his worst impulses would no longer be there.” The campaign also tied in U.S. Army Brigadier Gen. Steve Anderson and retired Army Reserve Col. Kevin Carroll to a press call where they made the case that it is Trump’s former advisors—not just Democrats—who are warning of his authoritarian instincts. Jim Messina, the former campaign manager for Barack Obama’s 2012 reelection campaign, took to Twitter to offer, “This Kelly story on Trump wanting to be Hitler is as close to an October surprise as you can get. Trump's own former top aide issuing a dire warning. Never seen anything like it.” The pool of truly undecided voters is increasingly small, but the razor thin margins mean that any movement—in either direction—could easily determine the election. 

Our friends across the pond have officially entered the fray of American presidential politics after Donald Trump filed a legal complaint with the Federal Election Commission last week against Britain’s Labour Party. The complaint was in response to a now-deleted LinkedIn post from Labour’s Head of Operations, Sofia Patel, where she said, “I have nearly 100 Labour Party staff (current and former) going to the U.S. in the next few weeks heading to North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. I have 10 spots available for anyone available to head to the battleground state of North Carolina— we will sort your housing.” Foreign nationals are allowed to volunteer on U.S. political campaigns as long as they are not compensated, and the Labour Party has insisted that any of their staffers traveling to the U.S. are “[doing] so at their own expense, in accordance with the laws and rules.” Federal election law prevents foreign volunteers from spending more than $1,000 helping candidates, and the Trump campaign has contended that the offer to “sort your housing” would put Labour Party volunteers well above that threshold. In the letter to the FEC, the Trump campaign called on the agency to immediately launch an investigation and wrote, “Those searching for foreign interference in our elections need to look no further than [the] LinkedIn post. The interference is occurring in plain sight.” A spokesperson for Labour later added, “It is common practice for campaigners of all political persuasions from around the world to volunteer in U.S. elections.”  Tempest in a tea cup, as they say. 

In New York, a pair of GOP Assembly candidates are dealing with self-created October surprises. Phillip Wang, running against Democratic incumbent Ron Kim in a very competitive Flushing-based Assembly district, has made ending the “30 Days Squatting Law” a centerpiece of his campaign, despite recent reporting from a Chinese-language news publication that he himself has been sued by his landlord for nearly $1 million in unpaid rent. When asked for comment, Wang said, “I hope there is no smear campaign against me before the election because I will press charges, no matter who says it. I reserve the right to file a lawsuit if there's any misinformation that's been reported. I have many lawyers, Jewish lawyers.” Wang later clarified that his comments were not antisemitic, because “Jewish attorneys are, in general, the best attorneys in the whole entire America. That's what the Chinese people believe.” Wang is running a close race against Kim in the predominately Asian district that has become much more competitive for Republicans in recent election cycles. 

Just outside of Schenectady, Scotia Village police announced they have officially opened an investigation after video surfaced of what appeared to show GOP Assembly candidate Joe Mastroianni stealing his opponent’s campaign mail from a local resident’s mailbox and replacing it with his own. Mastroianni, a current Rotterdam Town Board member who is running against incumbent Democratic Assemblyman Angelo Santabarbara, held a news conference, but did not address the accusation and did not take questions, telling reporters, “I will not be taking questions as I have the People’s business to attend to and will be responding to questions at a later time.” The Chair of the Schenectady County Democratic Committee, Frank Salamone, has called on Mastroianni to resign from the Town Board and cease campaigning adding, “It’s a federal crime, but it’s also antithetical to our process of election. It’s really disheartening.” Santabarbara echoed similar sentiments, saying in a statement, “Stealing mail marks a new low and crosses an unacceptable line. The actions shown in the video reflect extremely poor judgment and are far beneath the dignity expected of anyone seeking or holding public office.”

New York Governor Kathy Hochul is feeling optimistic about her party’s chances in key House races after polling news last week. A Siena College poll has Democrat Laura Gillen leading incumbent Republican Congressman Anthony D’Esposito in Long Island’s Fourth Congressional District by a margin of 53-41%. D’Esposito defeated Gillen by 3.6 points in 2022 and was one of the five seats that the GOP flipped in New York, leading Democrats to a frantic attempt to win the seat in 2024. In the First Congressional District, that encompasses eastern Long Island, incumbent Republican Congressman Nick LaLota leads local political commentator John Avalon by 3-points, but the race is within the margin of error and the same poll found Harris leading Trump by 1 point in the district. Speaking to reporters, Hochul offered, “Races that were viewed as lean Republican or toss-ups, we’re in a very good place. We take nothing for granted. I believe we’re going to have a number of pickups that I really believe are going to be transformational.” Hochul has a lot riding on New York’s House races after Nancy Pelosi publicly blamed her for Democratic losses in the State’s last cycle, saying in a 2023 interview, “The governor didn’t realize soon enough where the trouble was.” Hochul appears determined to avoid a similar outcome this time adding, “We’ve been out there raising the money, giving them the resources, building the ground game. Now we’re seeing the results.” 

Underlying Democratic hopes is a strong pivot on border issues, especially on Long Island. Starting at the top of the ticket, Democrats are offering a major shift on border and immigration issues as a result of Republican attacks. If they lose the White House—and in bids to control the House and Senate—those GOP attacks, supported by hundreds of millions of dollars in ad spending from Donald Trump and across the ballot, will be a major reason why.

Presidential nominee Kamala Harris and many fellow Democrats have focused heavily on the bipartisan border bill earlier this year that faltered in large part due to opposition from Trump. That said, it is unclear if the message that Trump and the GOP are not serious about solving the problem is enough to counter the onslaught. Progressives are holding the line; saying border security should only be embraced as part of a comprehensive immigration reform effort that includes a path to citizenship for the undocumented. President Joe Biden’s recent emphasis on border enforcement has them deeply uncomfortable. Rep. Delia Ramirez (D-Ill.), a Progressive whose husband is undocumented, said Democrats need to stay the policy course and do a better job matching GOP messaging. "This is not something that has been in the making over the last year,” Ramirez said. "Republicans have been really good in discipline, in making every single committee hearing, every conversation, come back to the same issue, which is [the] border."

Others, including Rep. Greg Casar (D-Texas), acknowledge that Democrats need to pivot right in order to win tough races. “I think Democrats need to campaign to win right now,” he said. “And many of my colleagues are just dealing with a political narrative as it has been set before this election. … Our whole country needs to do better, Democrats included, in rebutting Trump Republican lies on this issue.”

More moderate lawmakers worry that is not enough: Democrats actually have to get more serious about border security policy, whether or not it is part of a comprehensive bill that also addresses the status of undocumented immigrants. Rep. Don Davis (D-N.C.) says those GOP “open borders” attack ads will continue, and be effective, unless and until the border is addressed. “I've been a steady voice on this issue,” said Davis, who’s running to the right on border security to keep his seat. “I actually traveled to the border not too long after I was sworn in that first year, and obviously continue to take interest in the topic. … And really taking the time to do this has really helped better inform me.”

Long Island Democrats agree. Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-N.Y.) said “even a lot of Democrats and consultants” were opposed to him putting the border center-stage when he ran last year in the Long Island special election to fill the seat of expelled GOP Rep. George Santos. But he instead “ran into the issue,” he said, and won a comfortable victory. “A good elected official is someone who talks about what the people are talking about already,” he said. “So we certainly emphasized the need to secure the border.” We are seeing similar messaging from his fellow Long Island Democrats and that may be what is driving those latest Siena numbers in New York.

On the other hand, swing states are tightening for Trump and Republican Senate candidates are gaining on their opponents, and over and over, Democrats are afraid that nothing they do gets through to Trump-leaning voters. Nothing “moves the needle,” especially on the economy. To Team Biden/Harris, the economy should be a selling point. Inflation is down, manufacturing jobs are up, and the U.S. economy is the envy of the world—at least in the world of Democratic operatives in Washington.

They also believe that union members should be among the most appreciative. The Biden-Harris Administration has put organized labor at the center of U.S. economic policy. There has been a deliberate attempt to avoid the Blue Wall collapse that doomed Hillary Clinton in 2016. The White House has doubled down on Trump’s tariffs and passed historic industrial policies while Biden even joined a UAW picket line. Major unions from the Teamsters to the Autoworkers won record contracts and pension help under his watch.

Still, working class support for Harris in the polls remains weak, particularly among “manual workers”—weaker than for Biden or Clinton. The Teamsters and firefighters unions declined to endorse her. Worse, on the streets, union members who are pounding the pavement for Democrats lament that their Trump-supporting colleagues are “not persuadable.” 

It is trouble with a capital ‘T’ for Democrats. Even before Biden dropped out, factory workers in Wisconsin who benefited directly from his industrial policies—and got hefty raises this year themselves—said they still perceived the economy as bad, and were leaning toward Trump. And what of Trump’s threats to rescind that law? They do not believe he will do it, despite his explicit statements.

Some observers see a deeper dynamic: voter reaction to perceived economic anxiety and uncertainty, the result of which makes people less credulous of official facts and more conspiracy-prone.

“Supporters for right wing populists may not be objectively [economically] worse off on average, but they display what the psychologists call relative deprivation—which is that they feel relative to others… that they are being left behind in some way,” said sociologist William Davies, who studies the impact of emotion on politics. “This causes status anxiety.”

There is data to support this economic anxiety divide theory. September polling showed that a majority of Trump swing-state voters say their own financial position worsened in the last year, and Harris voters were much more likely to say their situation stayed the same or improved. There were similar results when voters were asked if they considered their financial situation as “secure,” or if they expected it to get better or worse over the next year. Democrats are now the party of the economically comfortable, while Republicans are much more nervous about their finances. A historic abnormality perhaps reflecting the inversion of the traditional coalitions.

Trump and Vance have seized on this anxiety to spread misinformation about immigrants, electric vehicles, unemployment numbers, the mainstream media, and more. Davies says those emotional appeals can motivate an already anxious population much more than a facts-first approach to political persuasion. The emotional appeals “establish a sense of solidarity among [Trump] supporters” that they—and their perceived truths—”have no legitimate means of… being represented through the media or through mainstream institutions,” said Davies.

That state of elevated anxiety—or a “nervous state,” the title of Davies’ 2018 book on emotion in contemporary politics—makes it much easier for conspiracy theories and unfounded narratives to gain traction. That’s true whether it’s rumors about Haitian immigrants, Venezuelan gangs taking over apartment buildings, or the Biden administration cooking the unemployment numbers—all topics that Trump voters in Michigan brought up last month in conversations on the campaign trail.

Conversely, facts and figures—particularly presented by establishment media and politicians—are more questionable than ever. Social media, and its filtering of viewers toward content that affirms their biases and inflames their emotions, only pours fuel on the fire.

In that high anxiety environment, Davies says, people are more susceptible to emotional appeals, and often grab on to narratives that “feel right” even when they aren’t completely borne out by the facts. The Republicans seem to realize this—hence, JD Vance’s comment in September saying that he could “create stories” about Haitian migrants because they speak to a larger truth. That’s a difference in type from previous forms of misinformation, Davies said—an assertion that “‘yes, we are lying, but we are justified in doing so for the following reasons,’ is an audacious move.”

Whether the move works will largely depend on Democrats’ effectiveness in countering the misinformation. In the immediate term, Democrats largely argue they can do that by doubling down on their facts-first approach.

In response to reporting on non-persuadable Trump voters, the UAW this week released new polling that they said shows union members who are contacted by fellow UAW members about the election overwhelmingly support Harris, 62-33 percent. And Michael Podhorzer, the former AFL-CIO political director, has made a similar argument about immigration—pointing out that support for mass deportation among Latinos collapses when voters are explained exactly what Trump’s plans could entail.

That may be true, but it’s late in the game for voter education, and the Harris campaign’s message has not been very focused on these issues. After hitting Trump and Vance over manufacturing a few times in the past few weeks, Harris again reverted to warnings about Trump’s threats to democracy this week in Michigan—a subject that, while ominous, ranks much lower than the economy with swing state voters.

We shall see in a week or to the first point, some days later. Fasten your safety belt!

-Jack O’Donnell

OD&A in the Community

Thank you to the Irish Legal 100 for a wonderful celebration in D.C.!

Our Jack O'Donnell, named to the Irish Legal 100 for the second year in a row, was proud to join the other honorees for a reception at the home of Geraldine Byrne Nason, Ambassador of Ireland to the U.S.

The event also featured guest speaker Rossa Fanning, Ireland’s AG.

The Irish Legal 100 is widely regarded as the premier award for people in the legal community of Irish descent, celebrating excellence across various legal fields while fostering pride in Irish heritage.

Congratulations to all the honorees!

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