Pressure Cooker

In Washington, D.C., the government shutdown is soon to make history, already the second longest, and closing in on the record set by the 35-day government shutdown during the first Trump administration.

With no end in sight, Republicans are discussing a new, extended continuing resolution (CR), one that would keep current government funding totals flat through at least December 2026, well beyond the November 21st target date set by Republicans at the beginning of this standoff. Some members are leaning towards an even longer-term CR, with House Ways and Means Committee Chair Jason Smith (R-Mo.) explaining, “I’ve been hearing this conversation from senators, from House members, that a CR not just for a year, but to Dec. 1 of next year. I strongly support a longer-term continuing resolution. I would support that until Dec. 1. I think that would allow more stability for our economy, stability for the American people.”

It is worth noting that a CR through December 2026 would punt most funding decisions—and the subsequent political cost—past November’s midterm elections. Some fiscal hawks are on board with a long-term CR, arguing that keeping funding levels flat will amount to a cut when considering inflation, but defense hardliners are worried about the impact on the Pentagon. Of course, any discussions on the length of a bill to reopen the government will take a backseat to the ongoing standoff between Democrats and Republicans over the fate of expiring healthcare subsidies.  

Meanwhile, Senate Republicans met with President Donald Trump over lunch at the White House, presenting a very public united front.

Trump said that Republicans "will not be extorted" into giving in to Democrats' demands, an indication that any end to the shutdown remains far off.

Democratic leaders dismissed the lunch as a "pep rally" and reached out directly to the president in the hopes of kick-starting negotiations over a potential deal to extend health care tax credits.

Nonetheless, remarks by Texas Republican Rep. Beth Van Duyne on a GOP conference call, have opened calls for a change in strategy, a change House Speaker Mike Johnson may be about to heed, as he acknowledged the GOP’s messaging is getting "old" and a change in strategy might be necessary. Duyne joined others in urging Johnson to bring the House back to Washington. Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries is bringing his conference back this week, so expect some theatrics.

Whomever wins the messaging on the shutdown (and hopefully a future reopening) will have a leg up heading into next year’s midterms, but so will whichever party wins the redistricting game. North Carolina Republicans successfully passed a new congressional map that is all but guaranteed to flip one of the state’s four blue districts to the GOP. The changes primarily affect the state’s 1st Congressional District, currently held by Democrat Don Davis, which Trump narrowly won in 2024. Under the new district lines, Trump would have won by 11 points. In a statement, Davis said, “Since the start of this new term, my office has received 46,616 messages from constituents of different political parties, including those unaffiliated, expressing a range of opinions, views, and requests. Not a single one of them included a request for a new congressional map redrawing eastern North Carolina.” Democratic Gov. Josh Stein has no power to veto the map, but Democrats are certain to file a myriad of legal challenges to block or delay the implementation. Similarly, the Trump administration has tried pressuring Indiana Republicans to undertake a mid-decade redistricting project of their own, but GOP lawmakers in the Hoosier state have so far rejected the partisan gamesmanship. A spokesperson for Senate President Pro Tempore Rodric Bray said last week, “The votes aren’t there for redistricting.” This is looking like a rare defeat for Trump/Johnson redistricting strategy.

Democrats are not waiting, either. In California, and more recently Virginia, they are moving forward with a strategy Vidar would approve of: fighting partisan redistricting with partisan redistricting. Last week, former President Barack Obama joined California Governor Gavin Newsom to rally support for Proposition 50—the ballot measure allowing California Democrats to neutralize the gains made by Texas Republicans. On the call, Obama said, “There’s a broader principle at stake that has to do with whether or not our democracy can be manipulated by those who are already in power to entrench themselves further,” he said. “Or whether we’re going to have a system that allows the people to decide who’s going to represent them.” Earlier this month, a survey from the Cook Political Report found 50% of registered voters in support compared to 35% opposed. Though light on details, Virginia Democrats announced late last week that they will also enter the national redistricting battle to see off the GOP gains in North Carolina. Speaking on the condition of anonymity, one Virginia Democrat said, “We are opening up the process reluctantly because of this aggressive midterm redistricting by Republicans in response to Trump across the country.” 

Also in Virginia, Republican lieutenant governor candidate John Reid held a debate with an AI-generated version of his opponent, Ghazala Hashmi, after she declined to participate. Could this be the future?

In New York, early voting opened on Saturday with thousands of voters heading to the polls. There was a massive turnout in NYC on the first day, where a total of 79,409 New Yorkers cast their ballots in the 2025 General Election, according to the city's Board of Elections.

The Erie County Board of Elections on Saturday reported 4,253 ballots cast on the first day of early voting for the Nov. 4 General Election, according to the Board of Elections Commissioners. Of those, 1,003 ballots were cast in the City of Buffalo.

Want to vote early? Find your site here.

-Jack O’Donnell

OD&A was there as Torn Space Theater hosted a celebratory ribbon-cutting ceremony last week, unveiling the latest phase of its transformative capital renovations. The theater's performance facility is located in Buffalo's historic Broadway-Fillmore neighborhood. Read more about the event here.

The law requires that Members of Congress be paid during a government shutdown. Do you think their pay should be withheld like other federal workers?