Collision Course

Good morning from New York City. Much of this city and most of the state and country are focused on influencing next Tuesday’s Election (or at least eagerly awaiting or dreading the results), but first, a quick look at local government, as a new bill backed by Mayor Zohran Mamdani and the New York City Council is causing quite a commotion, especially for Amazon, UPS, and other similar companies. Known as the Delivery Protection Act, the proposed legislation would prohibit companies from using independent contractors for last-mile deliveries in New York City and would levy a $500,000 penalty per worker for companies that do not comply. A coalition of business groups, including the Taxpayers Protection Alliance and the American Consumer Institute, outlined their concerns in a recent letter to New York City Council Speaker Julie Menin and asked for her help blocking the bill.

The letter argues that “these requirements would impose substantial costs on businesses while doing little to address the underlying safety concerns the legislation purports to solve.” The National Urban League has also come out in opposition, with President Marc Morial offering, “People should separate Amazon from this and look at what you have, which is an ecosystem of dozens of Black businesses who have hired people to do this work that are building businesses and family wealth. This is a bad policy choice, and the New York City Council should step back.” 

The bill’s proponents argue that the existing subcontracting delivery system exploits last-mile delivery workers while shielding companies like Amazon from corporate liability. Speaking to reporters last week, Mamdani shared, “This is legislation that would not only make our streets safer, but would also protect the workers who create so much of the profits that a company like Amazon reports, not only across the city, across the country, but across the world.”

The bill, sponsored by Council Member Tiffany Cabán, has 35 cosponsors, giving it a veto-proof majority as long as it moves from committee to a vote before the full 51-member council. To be continued.

Meanwhile, Albany's Common Council passed a controversial commuter tax last week that would deduct 0.3% from non-resident paychecks to help bridge a looming budget gap. The measure was met with immediate backlash from fellow Democrats, including Albany Mayor Dorcey Applyrs, who offered, “I greatly appreciate the members of the Common Council who are working to find solutions to our fiscal challenges. However, the non-resident commuter tax currently being discussed does not have the necessary support at the state level to move forward at this time. While a commuter tax is not a viable solution to our budget challenges, the discussion raises important questions that deserve our attention.” Assemblymember Gabrielle Romero, one of Albany’s representatives in the state Assembly, was less diplomatic, offering, “The council’s proposed resolution calling for a commuter tax is not the right approach. Publicly introducing this resolution without first consulting your state partners, whose support is required to make it happen, is not serious policymaking. To be very clear, I reject this proposal.” Governor Kathy Hochul, who would ultimately also have to sign-off on the new tax, succinctly offered, “Not happening” on social media. 

Hochul is focused instead on modernizing state rules and regulations, taking a break from the campaign trail to announce the second phase of her ‘Express New York’ initiative. Last fall, Hochul asked state agencies and the public for input on overly burdensome or outdated state regulations to right-size and modernize state government operations. The final report lists 75 actions, including reducing nursing home bed census reporting from weekly to monthly, modernizing the Department of Labor payroll system, and changing state liquor laws to allow charitable fundraising solicitations on beverage labels. You can read about all 75 actions across 17 different state agencies here. 

In another forward-looking break from campaigning, Hochul took time last week to continue her push for a joint Lake Placid-New York City Olympic bid for the 2042 Winter Games, with members of the exploratory committee meeting for the first time. Advocates of the joint bid have pointed to the most recent Winter Games in Milan and Cortina as a model that New York would follow for a dispersed Olympics. The nearly 90-member exploratory committee is tasked with evaluating the feasibility of a formal bid and identifying potential barriers that could prove prohibitive. At the opening meeting, Hochul declared, “New York is an Olympic State. We have the history, we have the venues, and we have a passion for sports that’s second to none. Today, I’ve assembled a team of the best and the brightest in sports, government, business, and community leadership from all corners of the state to ensure we are in the best position possible to build a roadmap to bring the Olympic flame back to New York.” Color us as believers and boosters of this bid. Special shout-out to Exploratory Leadership Committee Member (and friend of the firm) Assembly Member Bobby Carroll, who has been the leading champion of the bid. The full list of exploratory committee members is here.  

In an innovative and sure-to-be controversial move, the Trump administration announced it will use a Korean War-era law, the Defense Production Act, to unlock $42 million to complete the Constitution Pipeline, a project intended to bring natural gas from Pennsylvania to New York. The decision was made despite strong opposition from several state elected officials. Not everyone was unhappy, though; Congressman Rep. Mike Lawler applauded the move, telling reporters, "Utility rates are up 58 percent under New York’s disastrous energy policies. We need to approve the Constitution Pipeline to get gas here to this critical power plant and across New England and the region.”

The pipeline’s developer, Tulsa-Oklahoma-based The Williams Cos., has been tied up in litigation with environmental advocates who have raised concerns about the project’s impact on undisturbed natural forests. The federal funding does not even come close to covering the cost of the project, but the cash infusion provides further incentive for Williams to continue pursuing the project. The fate of the pipeline is one of Hochul’s strongest leverage points with the Trump administration, which has repeatedly attempted to strong-arm the state into approving the project.

In campaign news, another poll shows Hochul maintaining her double-digit lead; a new Quinnipiac University poll found her ahead of Republican candidate Bruce Blakeman 55-41%, up from the 11-point lead a Marist poll found earlier this month. Hochul also maintains a very strong cash advantage in the final stretch of the race; Hochul and the state Democratic Committee have raised $4.2 million in the past three weeks to bring their total cash on hand to $22 million. Blakeman’s most recent campaign finance numbers were not immediately available, but he ended September with just $178,000 in the bank. 

The national political landscape continues to shift toward Democrats—at least according to polling and pundits—as rating agencies and prediction markets project sweeping gains. The Cook Political Report has shifted 19 additional House races away from the GOP, giving Democrats 220 seats projected as Solid, Likely, or Lean Democrat. In the Senate, polling averages show Democrats leading in Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio, Michigan, Alaska, and Maine. One of the few bright spots for the GOP is in Minnesota, where former sports anchor Michele Tafoya is gaining ground on Minnesota Lt. Governor Peggy Flanagan for the Gopher state’s open Senate seat. Flanagan continues to come under fire from the GOP over widespread fraud in the state’s social services programs, while Democrats have tried to remind voters of the chaos that unfolded earlier this year when the Trump administration deployed ICE to Minneapolis.  

In Ohio, the GOP is dealing with another self-inflicted wound after a controversial ad from Republican gubernatorial candidate Vivek Ramaswamy drew bipartisan condemnation. The ad features the estranged mother of Democratic candidate Amy Acton, who says Acton “lied her entire life.” What the ad fails to mention is that Acton’s mother, Donna Arthur, lost custody of her children decades ago after her husband was indicted for raping Acton as a child. Acton correctly labeled the ad as “despicable,” and her campaign quickly released a response video where Acton’s brother provided context and accused Ramaswamy of using sexual assault as a “political talking point.”

Despite the backlash, Ramaswamy doubled down and announced his campaign would be dedicating $4 million to run the ad across the state. Outgoing Republican Governor Mike DeWine has called for the ad to be taken down, and former Republican Ohio Congressman Jim Renacci wrote on X: "The floor may have just fallen out from under the Republican campaign for Ohio Governor. And any Republican who fails to distance themselves from this ad risks taking on water as well.” Trump, somewhat predictably, endorsed the ad, posting on social media, “I suggested, on the other hand, that Vivek should keep it up, and let everyone listen to the mother of a defective, dishonest, and incapable Candidate, explain how the daughter is a DISASTER who, uncontrollably, lies, cheats, and steals! I only wish the mothers of my opponents would be so brave as to come forward and explain that their son or daughter is a liar, and much worse.” Further reports suggest that Arthur was living in a car when recruited for the ad.

Trump is doubling down on campaigning himself, hitting the road again this week for a slew of rallies intended to boost Republican enthusiasm, but significantly, all his scheduled stops are in deep-red states. Trump will be in Wichita, Kansas, later today before traveling to North Carolina on Tuesday, Ohio on Wednesday, and Iowa over the weekend. The omission of any true battleground states on Trump’s itinerary is a tacit confession from the GOP that Trump’s sinking popularity would do more harm than good for Republicans in competitive races. They continue to use their financial advantages to try to shore up teetering campaigns, and there is some indication that might be working in several Midwestern battleground seats (see Minnesota Senate above), but overall, the party has major concerns about holding either the House or the Senate and, in fact, is taking preemptive efforts to control the count. Read more here.

-Jack O’Donnell