Mud Fight

Good morning from New York City, with just 15 days until Election Day.

In the Empire State, all eyes are on the gubernatorial contest as incumbent Governor Kathy Hochul seeks a second full term against Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman.

The two met for their first and only debate of the campaign last week, a heated clash over crime, utility costs, and immigration enforcement. Blakeman sought to portray himself as the change candidate, promising to reverse Hochul’s criminal justice policies—policies that, he argued, have let criminals go largely unpunished. On the debate stage, Blakeman offered, “In Kathy Hochul's world, you got to ring a buzzer, a store clerk has to come out, unlock a glass door for you to buy a bottle of shampoo in New York State. It’s because we have a revolving door of criminality, cashless bail, raise the age, the whole deck.” Hochul hit back, touting the investments her administration has made to combat crime, saying, “When I became governor, it was gun crime that was skyrocketing; we tackled that. Retail theft—I gave millions of dollars to our district attorneys to change the laws and give them what they need to be able to reduce those crimes.”

On energy affordability, Hochul promoted her $200 energy rebate checks—incentives currently being mailed to eligible New Yorkers—and heaped blame on President Donald Trump’s war in Iran as the real reason for rising gas prices. Blakeman took issue with that characterization, hitting back with, “Donald Trump didn't raise utility rates 48 times; you did. Donald Trump didn't increase our utility bills by 50% since you've become governor.” 

One of the testiest exchanges of the night involved immigration enforcement, with Hochul blasting Blakeman’s support for ICE and the Trump administration’s ongoing deportation efforts, efforts brought back into the spotlight after the ICE-involved shooting in New York City earlier this month. Hochul declared, “So he basically says in the state of New York he'd be fine if ICE agents shoot into cars, shoot guns into vehicles, not knowing who's inside, and could have killed a five-year-old child. If that doesn't shock the conscience of everybody.” Blakeman countered, “The question that New Yorkers have to ask is what was this guy doing in New York in the first place? It's because Kathy Hochul has made us a sanctuary state.” The debate was lively and clearly showed the policy differences between the two candidates, but it lacked the major gaffes or viral moments that might have had a meaningful impact in the final stretch of the campaign. All things considered, especially her consistent lead in the polls, scores the debate as a win for Hochul. 

The gubernatorial winner takes the helm of a state facing serious economic headwinds, according to State Budget Director Blake Washington’s annual call letter. The universally respected Washington used his letter to warn of future budget challenges, specifically highlighting the threat from the current deceleration in AI investments combined with potentially harmful federal fiscal action, a situation likely to put New York’s budget under serious strain. On AI uncertainty, Washington offered, “The extent to which this continues is uncertain: as states and local governments continue to examine the environmental, social, and economic concerns around the buildout of AI infrastructure, a slowdown of the investment may lead to a cooling of the equities market with an outsized impact on New York State’s receipts.” Washington also outlined the areas where federal action, or lack thereof, could hamper the state’s finances, writing, “The road ahead will be influenced heavily by Federal actions that have placed additional financial pressures on New York State and local governments, especially in the areas of health and human services. Stressors already facing the Federal budget, combined with persistent and elevated inflation, will likely have a material effect on the value and duration of federal support well into the future.” 

There was also some good budget news last week: tax collections have outpaced the Division of Budget’s projections by $7.3 billion in the first half of the fiscal year, with the state collecting $68.5 billion from April to September. The increase was driven by higher personal income and business tax receipts, according to state Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli. The breakdown: personal income tax receipts came in at around $2.5 billion above projections, business tax receipts were $4.1 billion higher, and consumption and use tax receipts were about $421 million higher. Much of this overperformance, according to DiNapoli’s office, is due to another record year on Wall Street.

In the 17th Congressional District, Republican Rep. Mike Lawler and Democratic challenger Cait Conley met for their second and final debate last week. Conley appeared more confident this time around as she tried to tie Lawler to some of Trump’s most unpopular policies, including the war in Iran and tariffs. Lawler did his best to keep Trump at arm’s length and flip the script by linking Conley to Zohran Mamdani—a complicated line of attack given Trump’s apparent embrace of the New York City Mayor. Prompted by a question on the Cornell rape case, Conley hammered Lawler for failing to disavow Republican Congressman Max Miller of Ohio, who is under investigation following allegations from his ex-wife of serious domestic abuse. Lawler hit back at Conley for accepting “money from Eliot Spitzer, who trafficked young women across state lines for the purpose of sexually abusing them, and you refuse to return those funds. You refuse to denounce him in any way.” Conley responded, “I do not need you to mansplain to me what domestic abuse and sexual assault against women is and the appropriate response. Don’t start. Sit over there. I do not need you to mansplain to me, Mike.” The race in NY-17 remains one of the country's most competitive and closely watched contests and could serve as an early election-night bellwether. We will be watching. 

Another closely fought congressional race is NY-21, where Democrat Blake Gendebien and Republican Anthony Constantino are vying for the seat left vacant by Rep. Elise Stefanik. Although Republicans have a large enrollment advantage in the district spanning Saratoga to Watertown, a recent Siena poll found Gendebien leading Constantino 46-42%. Perhaps more troublesome for Constantino are the poll’s underlying numbers—85% of Democrats and 51% of independents said they would vote for Gendebien, compared to just 65% of Republicans and 30% of independents for Constantino. NY-21 is one of the 15 races that the Cook Political report has shifted from ‘solid’ to ‘likely’ Republican, reflecting the growing unpopularity of the MAGA movement that Constantino is a champion of, as well as some of Constantino’s personal limitations.

Shifting political winds also led the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) to add the race to its “Districts in Play” list in August, giving Gendebien access to a broader fundraising pool.  

On the state side, New York Attorney General Letitia James is using her political capital to help boost Democrats across the state and down the ballot, beginning with a pair of Democratic state Senate candidates looking to unseat two longtime Republican incumbents. Hoping Democratic turnout will bolster down-ballot candidates, James is campaigning for Sarah Rogerson, running against state Sen. James Tedisco, and Devin Lander, running against state Sen. Jake Ashby. In her endorsement message, James offered, “I need people in the Legislature who will write the laws, pass the budget, stand firm when Washington comes calling, when they cut back on resources as they have done. These are the perfect candidates to flip these two districts, particularly focusing on affordability, antitrust issues, consumer issues, and trying to advance the state of view.” James is making clear that she intends to be more than a political heavyweight in her own right, using her influence to strengthen her party’s position across New York.

Meanwhile, GOP leadership is making tough choices about resource allocation heading into the stretch as they weigh the writing on the wall in races once thought competitive, amid a national mood that appears to be shifting against them. The Congressional Leadership Fund, the leading House Republican Super PAC, canceled planned spending in Iowa's 1st District, where three-term Republican Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks is defending her seat against Democrat Christina Bohannan. The PAC will also pull spending in New Jersey's 7th District, where second-term Republican Rep. Tom Kean faces Democrat Rebecca Bennett. Those two races, as well as one in the Cincinnati, Ohio, area and one in east-central Michigan, have represented 12% of the CLF’s total spending through September. Another Trump-controlled Super PAC, Safety and Affordability, canceled $1 million in ad spending in Nevada’s 3rd District after Trump’s ‘no tax on tips’ policy failed to translate into support for the Republican incumbent. David McIntosh, president of the conservative Club For Growth, argued that the GOP’s looming defeat is largely self-inflicted, offering, "The economic environment has not been good. Voters are dissatisfied with their Republican majority, and the base is also dissatisfied that they weren't able to get the SAVE America Act passed. It looked like Republicans were weak, and so you've seen a lot of drop-off in enthusiasm.”

At the same time, Democrats are making a last-minute fundraising push to expand the map and press their advantage in districts that were once seen as out of reach. The DCCC announced a new $17 million fundraising drive that would let them surge ad spending in now-competitive races in Ohio, the Miami area, suburban St. Louis, Missouri, and the Little Rock, Arkansas area. Senate Democrats are so confident about Senator Jon Ossoff’s reelection chances in Georgia that they are pulling planned ad spending and will instead focus on Maine, New Hampshire, Michigan, Iowa, Kansas, Texas, Alaska, and Ohio. 

Smart moves? We will know in 15 days.

If you think you are having a bad day at work, at least you are not this GOP ad buyer. 

-Jack O’Donnell

OD&A hit the red carpet to celebrate our client, Endeavor Health Services, at a special capital campaign event and documentary premiere. Our team joined community supporters to recognize Endeavor’s growing impact and commitment to expanding access to behavioral healthcare in Western New York.