Battle Lines

Today marks both Columbus Day and Indigenous Peoples’ Day, two observances that reflect different perspectives on American history. Explore the origins of these traditions, how they have evolved, and what each day represents here.

Last week, we highlighted Governor Kathy Hochul’s massive cash advantage heading into the final weeks of the gubernatorial campaign, but further details—gleaned from public campaign filings by the Bruce Blakeman campaign with the New York State Board of Elections—demonstrate the incumbent’s lead is even more dramatic than initially thought.

Compared to Hochul’s $19 million, County Executive Blakeman has just $178,000 cash on hand, less than many state legislative campaigns. Blakeman has spent close to $10.5 million so far, but will need more resources to get his message out across the state in the 22 days left. He certainly still has work to do; two polls released last week, the Marist Institute for Public Opinion and Emerson College Polling, found Hochul with a double-digit lead, similar to other public surveys over the past couple of weeks. 

Low on campaign funds, President Donald Trump was in Syracuse on Friday for a rally with Blakeman, hoping to boost Republican enthusiasm ahead of the midterm elections. Attacking Gov. Kathy Hochul and Democrats over immigration, crime, and the economy, Trump declared, “Kathy Hochul and the radical Democrats have turned New York into a national embarrassment.” Blakeman echoed Trump’s criticism of the state’s economy and immigration policies, while thousands of protesters gathered nearby to oppose the president and his administration’s agenda.

The Trump visit may have played well in parts of Upstate and in the New York City suburbs, where Trump continues to enjoy modest popularity—the previously mentioned Marist poll found 28% of voters Upstate and 33% in the Suburbs approve of the job Trump is doing as president; the disapproval numbers were 51% and 46%, respectively—but the visit was overshadowed by the shooting of an unarmed man by ICE in New York City on Thursday night.

According to NYPD Commissioner Jessica Tisch, ICE attempted to arrest a 28-year-old man in New York City’s Marble Hill Neighborhood before firing seven rounds into his car, striking the man in the neck, but missing his 5-year-old son, who was also in the car. The episode has reignited a wave of anti-ICE sentiment, with protests and demonstrations breaking out outside of the hospital where the man is being held. On social media, Hochul shared, “Tonight, I spoke with President Trump and DHS Secretary Mullin about the shooting in Marble Hill. I expressed outrage on behalf of New Yorkers and urged them to halt ICE enforcement operations in New York. I also asked that any body camera footage of the shooting be released to the public, so we can establish the facts and get to the truth.”

New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani said he too spoke with Trump and Mullin, but was unable to convince them to release the man from federal custody. In a statement immediately after the shooting, Mamdani offered, “This is an unconscionable and incredibly serious situation. I have called the President; when we speak, I will demand that he end all ICE enforcement actions in our city. I will not stand by while ICE agents terrorize our communities. Our thoughts are with the injured New Yorker and his family tonight. We are praying for his recovery. Get ICE out of our neighborhoods. Get ICE out of our hospitals. Get ICE off our streets. Get ICE away from our children.” Democrats expect this anger at ICE, and more broadly at the Trump administration's immigration and other policies, to drive their voters to the polls in New York City and beyond. 

Three retail workers are spearheading a legal challenge in federal court to limit Governor Hochul's powers. According to Capitol Confidential, the workers are asking a federal appellate court to curb the governor's broad authority to include non-fiscal policy items in the state budget. New York has a longstanding practice of folding sweeping policy changes into the state budget. Many state legislators, including powerful Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie, have shared similar concerns. We will be watching to see if the lawsuit goes anywhere.

Last Monday was National Child Health Day, and state Senator Jeremy Cooney marked it by unveiling a bold new legislative effort to provide universal healthcare for all children in New York. At a press conference, Cooney offered, “Parents shouldn't have to choose between a doctor's visit for their children and basic necessities like groceries, rent, or utilities. And when coverage is unaffordable, preventative care is the first thing that unfortunately goes away. Consistent care means reducing chronic diseases like asthma and diabetes, illnesses that can shape a child's future if left untreated. And we know that children with consistent coverage have better academic performance, higher graduation rates, and stronger long-term financial security. When kids are healthier, they learn better and they stay in school and they thrive.” The initiative would be funded through existing federal Medicaid programs and would expand New York’s Child Health Plus plan. The issue is especially acute for Cooney, who became a dad earlier this year with the birth of his son, Aidan. 

In a year when many Democrats are running simply as not being Republicans, it is good to see some legislators still rolling out forward-looking policy proposals and contributing to the debate about where and what government should be doing.

Less forward-looking is the ongoing dysfunction of the King’s County Democratic Party. Assembly Member Rodneyse Bichotte Hermelyn and allies held a virtual meeting last week and voted in her handpicked successor, Assembly Member Nikki Lucas, as the new Chair, seemingly in violation of a court order from a state Supreme Court Justice.

At the impromptu meeting, Lucas received votes from only 13 of the 42 District Leaders, but support from 21 of 26 members of the expanded Executive Committee, leading her to declare victory. In a statement, Lucas said, “I am deeply honored by the vote of confidence from my fellow District Leaders and our Executive Committee. This is bigger than any one person, any one group, or any one election. Brooklyn is strongest when we work together, and I am committed to building a party where people feel welcomed, respected, and empowered to participate.” The reform faction continues to contest Lucas’s victory, insisting that Rep. Nydia Velázquez is in control of the party, and a state Supreme Court hearing is scheduled to determine whether Bichotte Hermelyn’s action constitutes contempt of court. 

The New York City Council held a landmark oversight hearing on artificial intelligence last week, featuring testimony from AI executives, safety experts, and industry whistleblowers. Among the whistleblowers was Jacob Coxon, the former Anthropic researcher who made news earlier this year when he quit his job over concerns that the technology he was helping to create could kill all humans. Coxon doubled down on those comments last week, telling the Council, “From my experience, the companies are being extremely reckless given the stakes. The companies run on a startup mindset: move fast, break things, fix them later. That works for a photo-sharing app. It does not work for building the most powerful technology ever built.” Alex Turner, a former AI researcher at Google, went even further in his warnings, offering, “A superintelligent swarm could wrest control of human civilization. It would know that we would try to stop it from achieving its priorities, so the swarm would likely wait until it’s too late to shut it off; there would be no going back. I myself would guess AI takeover chances at roughly one in three.” Following the lead of New York State, the New York City Council is considering a package of bills regulating AI, including mandating “kill switches” and providing cash incentives to industry whistleblowers. 

Republican Congressman Mike Lawler has continued to bolster his bipartisan bona fides as he runs for reelection in the contested Hudson Valley. After receiving an endorsement from Rep. Jared Golden, a retiring moderate Democrat from Maine, last month, Lawler also received an endorsement from Montebello Deputy Mayor Stacy Caridi, a Democrat. In her statement, Caridi said, “I’m a Democrat, and I’m voting for Mike Lawler. I’ve known Mike since he was our Assemblyman. He grew up in Rockland and graduated from Suffern High School. He owns a home here and pays taxes here and is raising his kids here. No one knows this community better than Mike does, and he delivers.” Caridi later cited Lawler’s defense of Israel and the $120 million in federal funding he secured for her community as the main drivers of her cross-party endorsement.

A recent poll from Emerson College found Democratic challenger Cait Conley leading Lawler by 2 points. The Cook Political report still rates that race as a “Toss-Up”; however, the nonpartisan forecasting group shifted 18 other House races across the country towards the Democrats. Four Republican incumbents previously in the "Toss-Up" column moved to "Lean Democrat,” and four races previously rated "Lean Republican" shifted into the "Toss-Up" category. These competitive races are likely to be decided by the cohort of voters who hold an unfavorable view of both parties, colloquially known as “double haters.”

This group, roughly 1 in 5 registered voters, has historically served as a bellwether in tight elections and is disproportionately driven by economic anxiety. That could be good news for Democrats, as the economic prosperity promised by the Trump administration and a GOP-led Congress has largely failed to materialize since they took control in 2024. 

That said, much of the professional political universe continues to speculate that this polling has some pro-Democratic bias—the question remains about the size of that bias and also whether it is consistent across states or even regions of the country. That comes mostly as a defensive reaction to the last few cycles, when we have seen polling misses, mistakes that specifically overestimated Democratic performance; in fairness, this is much more pronounced when Trump is actually on the ballot. Some of those concerns also come from real differences in response rates by partisan ideology and geography, especially rural areas, which will be key in several Senate races. The Washington Post has a good examination of that here. Nonetheless, it is worth noting that even if there are mistakes being made in, say, Iowa or Minnesota, that does not mean the same mistakes are being made in Maine and Michigan. We are all following the national news and environment, but these races are being run differently; candidates bring different strengths, and each “laboratory of Democracy” has its own history and quirks. Add in a very volatile and angry electorate, and well, any number of surprising things could happen! 

However the midterm elections shake out, Congress has a laundry list of tasks to complete when it returns for the lame-duck session in November. The most pressing deadline is December 11th, when the current continuing resolution (CR) funding the government expires. Congress will either pass all 12 appropriations bills that make up a federal funding package (which remains unlikely, given that the House has passed only three and the Senate has passed none) or pass another CR and punt the funding fight down the road, this time into 2027. At the same time, Congressional leaders must agree—or at least pass another temporary extension—on major provisions of the Farm Bill, including eligibility for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP). On healthcare, a temporary 2.5 percent Medicare Physician Fee Schedule payment increase and the Community Health Center Fund both expire on December 31st and will require congressional attention. Lawmakers also have to pass the annual Water Resources Development Act (WRDA), and some have suggested using the lame-duck session to enact bipartisan permitting reform. That is quite the agenda for what analysts and political reporters widely agree is the least productive Congress in history. Stay tuned! 

-Jack O’Donnell