Closing Arguments

Good morning from Buffalo, New York. The Queen City was the home of Grover Cleveland who was elected President on this day in 1884. It was his first of two nonconsecutive terms. Will we see nonconsecutive terms again? This week will tell.

Both the Harris and Trump campaigns spent the weekend delivering their respective closing arguments before voters head to the polls tomorrow. Vice President Kamala Harris was in the crucial swing states of Arizona and Nevada, hoping to capitalize with undecided Latino voters after a speaker at former President Trump’s Madison Square Garden rally referred to Puerto Rico as a “floating island of garbage.” Harris used the opportunity in Arizona to address border security and immigration, two of the biggest issues for her campaign, and attempted to draw a contrast between herself and Trump on issues affecting Latino voters saying, “He insults Latinos, scapegoats immigrants—and it's not just what he says, it's what he will do. If elected, you can be sure he will bring back family separation policies, only on a much greater scale than last time.” Trump lost Arizona in 2020 by less than 11,000 votes, and the GOP is hoping that a state ballot measure making illegal border crossings a state crime will help drive turnout among their base. Democrats, however, have a ballot measure of their own that would enshrine the right to an abortion in the state’s constitution, a tactic that has effectively driven Democratic turnout elsewhere in the post-Roe era. 

In Nevada, Harris held rallies in Reno and Las Vegas where she was introduced by Jennifer Lopez who also took issue with the comments at MSG saying, “At Madison Square Garden, he reminded us who he really is and how he really feels," Lopez said. "It wasn't just Puerto Ricans that were offended that day, okay—it was every Latino in this country.” Harris’s final weekend push also included a Friday night rally in Wisconsin and stops in Georgia, Michigan, and North Carolina before wrapping up her campaign today with a set of rallies in Pennsylvania, including in Allentown where more than half of the population is Latino. 

This Latino outreach all comes after a major speech from Harris in the Ellipse, the same location where Trump kicked off January 6th events that culminated in insurrection and bloodshed. Harris has been trying to strike a balance between warnings about the rival she calls a fascist and an optimistic, forward looking vision for the presidency. 

“It’s really a reminder of the gravity of the job, how much a president can do for good and for bad, to shape the country and impact people’s lives,” said Harris Campaign Chair Jennifer O’Malley Dillon. “But it’s also a stark visualization of probably the most infamous example of Donald Trump and how he’s used his power for bad, really focusing on himself and spreading division and chaos and inciting a mob to try to maintain his own power and put himself over the country.”

The speech was an attempt to reach a critical segment of the electorate the Harris campaign calls “conflicted voters,” those who may have concerns with Trump’s conduct, but who are not yet convinced Harris is a candidate of change who can get the country on track.

The goal was not to raise new issues as much as to frame the stakes of the race and highlight the deep contrast between Harris and Trump.

It is not without controversy. The leading super PAC supporting Harris’ candidacy raised concerns that the Harris campaign was too closely centering its closing message on calling Trump a fascist. “This topic is not as persuasive as contrast messages featuring Harris’ economic plans, and her promise to protect reproductive rights,” the group warned in an email to Democrats about messaging in the final stretch of the campaign.

Nonetheless, Harris’ advisers believe there are moderates who will be swayed by the links between Trump and fascism, particularly when raised by his former top aide, John Kelly.

More broadly, the Harris team views the closing days of the campaign as an opportunity to capitalize on the widespread exhaustion and frustration at Trump’s chaotic brand of politics by shining a spotlight on that chaos and offering a clear alternative. She also found time to appear on Saturday Night Live:

Team Trump is offering its own closing arguments, first by fighting garbage with garbage after some ill-timed comments from President Joe Biden, where he appeared to be calling Trump supporters “garbage.” Trump responded by taking questions from reporters while sitting in a garbage truck in Wisconsin and later wore a neon reflective vest at his rally to further drive home the point, offering, “How stupid is a man to say that. How stupid is a man to say that. But she believes it, too.”

Trump also traveled West, appearing in Glendale, Arizona with conservative commentator Tucker Carlson on Thursday and making a stop in New Mexico, a state that has not voted for a Republican presidential candidate since 2004. Speaking to a crowd in Albuquerque, Trump summed up his campaign’s thinking by saying, “I’m here for one simple reason: I like you very much, and it’s good for my credentials with the Hispanic or Latino community.” Trump followed up his western swing with a rally in Dearborn, Michigan—the nation’s largest Arab-majority city with many residents upset with the Biden/Harris Administration’s handling of the war in Gaza—as well as stops in Wisconsin and North Carolina. Trump is campaigning in Pittsburgh today.

While trying to distance himself from the slur on Puerto Rico and his own comments on Liz Cheney, Trump has been trying to get back to his own best closing argument: he opened a rally in Henderson, Nevada by repeating his closing message, one that surveys show resonates with voters across the political spectrum. “Are you better off now than you were four years ago?” he asked Thursday. The crowd, anticipating the question, erupted with boos and shouts of “No!” The question worked for President Ronald Reagan and is exactly why some voters are “conflicted.”

With both candidates making their final push, millions of Americans have already made up their mind. Over 72 million voters took advantage of mail-in or early in-person voting, a signal that pandemic era voting trends might be sticking around. This year’s early vote total falls well short of 2020 when over 101 million early votes were cast, but still far surpasses the 47.2 million early votes that were cast in 2016, and the 46.2 million in 2012. Most of the predicting and prognosticating over early voting results is based solely on demographic data—the results of who these early voters actually selected will not be available until Election Day. That being said, a few noticeable trends have started to emerge. More Republicans appear to voting early in the 20 states that track early voting party registration. In 2020, Republicans made up 30.5% of the early votes cast compared to 44.8% for Democrats.

This election cycle, registered Republicans represent 36.1% of the early vote compared to 38.9% for the Democrats. That trend could dampen the traditional “red mirage” on Election Day where the in-person voting totals, which traditionally favor the GOP, are tabulated before early ballots, which typically favor Democrats. There is also a pronounced gender gap in the six states that report early voting gender data, with 54.2% of all early votes coming from women. A factor that heavily favors Democrats.

In modern presidential politics, the gender gap has never been wider, and is particularly large when broken out by educational attainment. According to recent polling, the gender gap is 17 points, with Trump ahead 8 points among men and Harris up 9 points among women. The gap by education is 29 points, with Trump ahead 10 points among people without a college degree and Harris ahead 19 points among those with one. Finally, the gaps are driven particularly by men without a college degree and women with a college degree, with an overall difference of 43 points.

This is not a new phenomenon: college-educated women have consistently voted strongly for Democrats for years, but the divergence between non-college-educated men and college-educated women is remarkable. The shift is driven by Trump’s appeal to non-college-educated men. Years ago, Democrats could count on support from male union workers, but Trump is increasingly winning over those voters—not only because of his direct, emotional appeals to their anxiety and values, but also because Democrats have failed to offer a compelling populist economic message and to break into the media ecosystem that non-college-educated men consume. At the same time, Harris is successfully appealing to educated women. Republicans used to be stronger than Democrats with college-educated women, but that started to change in the 1980s with Ronald Reagan. As both candidates consolidate support among their base, the divide between college-educated women and non-college-educated men seems almost impossible for them to overcome, but again, we shall see more this week.

Regardless of the winner, the presidential transition will look slightly different after Congress passed the Presidential Transition Improvement Act in 2022. The new law requires the transition process to begin sooner—five days after the election—and if there is no apparent winner or “significant legal challenges,” both campaigns will have access to government funding and logistical support to prepare for a potential transition. The federal transition process, run by the General Services Administration, includes practical matters like finding office space, tech support, access to facilities and documents, and vetting political appointees, though Trump has not yet signed an ethics pledge or released required transition funding disclosures that formally unlock the resources from the federal government. The largest task in the 77 days between Election Day and the Inauguration is filling the roughly 4,000 appointed positions at government agencies. Neither side will be starting completely from scratch, though a second Trump Administration would likely look different than his first, and there is expected to be some turnover among President Biden’s appointees should Harris prevail. 

In New York, all eyes will be on the competitive House races in Syracuse, the Hudson Valley, and on Long Island where Republicans made gains in 2022. Governor Kathy Hochul said last week that she expects her party to flip a “minimum three” House seats and added, “Make sure you put Tom Suozzi in my win column. OK? I’m starting with a plus one,” in reference to Suozzi’s win in the Special Election earlier this year to replace disgraced former Rep. George Santos. Hochul’s prediction is largely in line with the polling and conventional wisdom. The Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan political rating group, lists NY-04 on Long Island as “Lean Democrat” with Democratic candidate Lauren Gillen leading incumbent Republican Rep. Anthony D’Esposito in recent polling. Democrat John Mannion is also favored over incumbent Republican Rep. Brandon Williams in the 22nd Congressional District that covers Syracuse and the surrounding areas.

Democrats maintain a steady registered voter advantage in both districts, and Biden won both districts in 2020 by over 8 points. In the 19th Congressional District, the race between Republican Rep. Marc Molinaro and Democrat Josh Riley has become the second most expensive House race in the country, with Riley slightly ahead in recent public polling. Elsewhere, the picture looks better for Republicans. Rep. Nick LaLota is expected to defeat Democrat John Avlon on Eastern Long Island’s First Congressional District and Republican Rep. Mike Lawler is poised to win reelection against former Congressman Mondaire Jones for the Lower Hudson Valley-based 17th Congressional District. If all those races hold, Hochul’s prediction of three wins will be on the money.

The New York State Court of Appeals rejected an appeal from state Republicans seeking to invalidate a 2021 law that allows absentee ballots to be processed more expeditiously. The change allowed absentee ballots to be counted as soon as polls close on Election Day, rather than having to wait the previously required three days. The high volume of mail-in ballots in 2020 led to significant delays, leading to some competitive races not being called for weeks. Republicans have argued that the expedited process hinders the ability of poll workers to review and resolve objected ballots, but the Court of Appeals disagreed. 

In case you missed it, a trial date of April 21, 2025 has been set in Eric Adams’ federal bribery case, just two months before the Democratic primary election where he intends to seek reelection. 

-Jack O’Donnell

OD&A News

Our Jack O’Donnell is proud to be among the top New York leaders helping Upstate chart a new course for success. Leading the pack among the state’s government relations firms, Jack once again has been named to City and State NY’s Upstate Power 100!

City and State NY writes: A former aide to U.S. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and in the state comptroller’s office, Jack O’Donnell has established himself as a top lobbyist from Buffalo to New York City. O’Donnell is president of the Buffalo Police Foundation and has rallied support for the University at Buffalo’s James Joyce Archive. O’Donnell clients include Delaware North, the Ralph C. Wilson Jr. Foundation, the Buffalo Niagara Partnership, the Monroe County Water Authority, and the North Atlantic States Regional Council of Carpenters.

Jack is honored to named along with Satish Tripathi, President of OD&A client, the University at Buffalo, Jeremy Jacobs, Chair of OD&A client, Delaware North, and Mary Wilson, Life Trustee of OD&A client, the Ralph C. Wilson Jr. Foundation.

He also joins many of the firm’s partners in government, including Governor Kathy Hochul, Senators Chuck Schumer and Kirsten Gillibrand, Assembly Majority Leader Crystal Peoples-Stokes, as well as several Members of Congress, State Senators and Assembly Members, Mayors, and leaders in labor, business, health, and higher education. View the full list here.

OD&A in the Community

Will you be participating in early voting or casting your ballot on Election Day?

This new segment to Monday Morning Memo shares with you some good reads recommended by our OD&A team! Here’s what’s on our bookshelf:

The Count of Monte Cristo: I reread this masterpiece by Alexander Dumas every few years for what it tells us about life with a particular focus on revenge and redemption. It is also a great, swashbuckling adventure! None of the various movie adaptions do it justice.

That depth, and the spectacular details, add so much color to an already rich historic canvass, but what these books say about power, specifically how it is achieved and how it is wielded, is both fascinating and enlightening.

This Day in History

November 4, 1924: American politician Nellie Tayloe Ross became the first woman to be elected governor of a U.S. state (Wyoming).

News

Anti-Puerto Rico Comments at Trump Rally Spur Outrage as Bad Bunny Supports Harris

Schumer Gives a Senate Democratic Forecast—Including a Nebraska Independent

Insiders Question Senate GOP Group’s Focus on Montana, Big Spending

A ‘Fake Family’ Photo Takes Center Stage in Battleground House Race

Clallam County Has Picked the Right President for 100 Years and It Could Swing to Trump

Albany NanoTech Named Semiconductor Research Hub

How a Hochul Parole Board Appointee Got Himself Fired

N.Y.'s Opioid Board Holds Tense Meeting Ahead of Report to Hochul

Cuomo Bridge Builder Sues Thruway Authority for Breaching Contract, Demands More Than $1B

House COVID Panel to Refer Andrew Cuomo for Potential Prosecution

Travelers Who Cut the Line Now Get Busted by American

‘SNL’ Shouts Out Mohawk Valley, Central NY Native in John Mulaney Skits

Eric William Morris and Noah Weisberg of ‘Cellino V. Barnes’ on Bringing the Real-Life Lawyers to Life on Stage

Worth a Read

How the Democrats Bungled the Politics of Immigration

Harris Makes Bet on Turnout Among Women

Harris Talks Increasingly About Her Faith But Walks a Careful Line

Tony West, Harris’s Brother-in-Law, is Corporate Insider and Campaign Adviser

Elon Musk is the October Surprise of the 2024 Election

Who is Tony Hinchcliffe, the Comedian Who Performed at Trump’s Rally?

Tim Walz Joins AOC to Play ‘Crazy Taxi’ and ‘Madden’ on Twitch

Pittsburgh Takes A Star Turn in Political Universe

The Battle for Red Nebraska’s ‘Blue Dot’

Democrat Walks A Careful Line To Hold His Seat

For this Congressman, the National Debt is the Top Issue. Do Voters Agree?

Conservative Group’s ‘Watch List’ Targets Federal Employees for Firing

Michael Cargill Overturned Donald Trump's Bump Stock Ban. But He Will Still Vote for Him

The New Dark Money: How Influencers Get Paid Big Bucks to Court Your Vote

The Real Stars of the Campaign Trail: Doritos and Diet Mountain Dew

Endorsement-Gate and the Slow Death of Daily Newspapers

How Jeff Bezos’s Growing Business Empire Increasingly Relies on Washington

Cory Booker’s Unflagging Joy

Farmer Who Wouldn't Vote for Molinaro Doesn't Live in New District

Long Ago, the Miscalculations of Men led to America’s First Female Mayor

Real Madrid Feels Disrespected After Vinicius Fails to Win Award

Hermès and The Case of the Missing $13 Billion

From Brat to Bootylicious: How Pop Changed the English Language

Why Screen Villains Always Play Golf

I Went for Meatballs at Ikea’s First Standalone Restaurant