GOTV

Good morning from Buffalo, New York. 

Early voting across New York wrapped up Sunday ahead of tomorrow’s Election Day. Over 700,000 early votes were cast in the New York City mayoral contest, far surpassing previous General Election totals.

In a small glimmer of hope for former Governor Andrew Cuomo, voters over age 50 have accounted for roughly 57% of the early vote total, though voters under 50 have been steadily closing the gap by turning out in record numbers. The younger turnout can be attributed mainly to Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani’s impressive field campaign, which saw 2,200 volunteers canvassing the city last weekend, with another 800 making calls to undecided voters. Mamdani’s focus on establishing a strong ground campaign with a reliable network of volunteers paid off in spades in the Primary Election when the now 34-year-old front-runner defeated a crowded field of more experienced candidates. Since that decisive win, Mamdani’s campaign has added another 40,000 volunteers to help run through the General Election finish line. Mamdani remains the prohibitive favorite.

Elsewhere, all four of Upstate New York’s largest cities, will hold elections for mayor, with three of those being open contests as a result of term limits or retirements. Buffalo will have its first open mayoral contest in nearly two decades after long-serving Mayor Byron Brown left office last year. State Senator Sean Ryan defeated Acting Mayor Chris Scanlon in the June Democratic Primary and faces Republican James Gardner and independent candidate Michael Gainer. Gardner has invested substantial resources in running a late-breaking, spirited campaign though Ryan remains tough to beat. In Syracuse, independent Mayor Ben Walsh is term-limited after eight years and is hoping to hand the ball off to his Deputy Mayor, Democrat Sharon Owens. She is running against Republican attorney Thomas Babilon, and independents Timothy Rudd and Alfonso Davis. Further east down the I-90, Democratic Albany City Auditor Dorcey Applyrs is running to replace incumbent Kathy Sheehan, who chose not to run for a fourth term. Applyrs is running against Republican entrepreneur Rocco Pezzulo. Incumbent Mayor Malik Evans of Rochester is cruising to reelection after a decisive Primary victory.

At the state level, there is a Special Election for the North Country’s 115th Assembly District, encompassing Clinton, Franklin, and part of Essex County. The seat had been held by Assemblyman Billy Jones, the lone Democrat representing the North Country for the last decade, who left office earlier this year in order to take a private sector role. Republicans are hoping their candidate, retired State Police Major Brent Davison, can flip the seat and help chip away at the Democratic supermajority in the lower chamber. Davison is running against Democrat Michael Cashman, who has served as the Plattsburgh Town Supervisor since 2016.  

Speaking of the North Country, New Yorkers will also have the chance to vote on this year’s only statewide ballot proposal to amend the New York State Constitution. The amendment would permit the New York Olympic Regional Development Authority to expand winter sports facilities on the Mount Van Hoevenberg complex near Lake Placid, currently protected land of the Adirondack Forest preserve, as laid out in the “forever wild” clause of the state Constitution. If adopted, the state would be required to purchase 2,500 acres of land to donate to the Adirondack Park to offset the roughly 350 acres that would be developed. 

The New York Division of the Budget released a mid-year update last week showing an improved fiscal picture for New York. Yay! The state’s projected budget deficit next year has shrunk from $7.5 billion in June to $4.2 billion, largely thanks to higher-than-expected tax receipts. The report found, “The economic outlook has now improved significantly from DOB’s previous forecast, reflecting strong wage growth, continued stock market strength fueled by expected growth in the technology sector, and slower than expected impacts from the tariffs.” The DOB also found that the controversial change to a single fiscal intermediary for the state’s Consumer Directed Personal Assistance Program (CDPAP) will exceed the initial savings estimate of $500 million. Nonetheless, the DOB continues to urge fiscal prudence, especially as the effects of federal funding cuts have yet to fully materialize. 

The nationwide redistricting battle continues and New York has now entered the chat. Democratic super lawyer Marc Elias and his eponymous law firm filed a lawsuit that could, possibly, maybe serve as a catalyst for the state to draw new congressional lines. The suit alleges that the districts, as currently drawn, specifically on Staten Island, illegally marginalize Black and Latino voters. The suit alleges, “CD-11’s antiquated boundaries instead confine Staten Island’s growing Black and Latino communities in a district where they are routinely and systematically unable to influence elections for their representative of choice, despite the existence of strong racially polarized voting and a history of racial discrimination and segregation on Staten Island.” Elias argues that the 11th Congressional District, represented by Republican Rep. Nicole Malliotakis, should be redrawn to include parts of Lower Manhattan to increase the number of non-white voters in the district. New York’s constitution does not allow mid-decade redistricting, but Democratic leaders have been exploring creative ways to combat the Republican redistricting offensive across the country. Democratic Deputy State Senate Leader Mike Gianaris offered, “We obviously have to get engaged and not sit on the sidelines. While red states are bastardizing the makeup of Congress, we can't allow one side to be engaging in this process without a response.” Game on.

The redistricting game is also afoot in the Hoosier State, where, after initially exerting a veil of independence, Indiana Republicans have succumbed to pressure from President Donald Trump and the White House to convene a Special Legislative Session to take up Congressional Redistricting. In a statement last week, Republican Governor Mike Braun said, “I am calling a special legislative session to protect Hoosiers from efforts in other states that seek to diminish their voice in Washington and ensure their representation in Congress is fair.” Indiana House Speaker Todd Huston and Senate President Pro Tempore Rodric Bray have been hesitant to give the redistricting ploy their full-throated support, and a spokesperson for Senate Republicans said last week, “All I have to share is the votes still aren’t there for redistricting.” Braun dismissed the comments as wishful thinking, saying, “When you hear ‘The votes aren’t there,’ that’s mostly coming from Democrats and others that don’t want it to occur. Once this goes public, you’ll have people getting off the fence, and you’re going to see the votes will be there. We think we’re close enough to where, once it becomes a public discussion… any senators that are still waffling will hear from their own constituents. I think it will convene on (Nov. 3), and there will be a lot of reinforcement for it.” One notable Republican who has expressed skepticism over the propriety and legality of mid-decade redistricting is Mike Pence, the state’s former governor and Trump’s former Vice President. 

The path for Democrats to respond in kind is increasingly narrowing. Democrats in California seem poised to pass a ballot measure on Tuesday that will allow the state to engage in mid-decade redistricting, but the party’s prospects to push back on Republicans look dim elsewhere. The Democratic President of Maryland’s State Senate, Bill Ferguson, threw cold water on the idea that Maryland could be the newest front in the national redistricting war, saying in a letter last week, “I want to… provide some additional clarity regarding why; after speaking with many of you individually, the Senate is choosing not to move forward with mid-cycle redistricting. Despite deeply shared frustrations about the state of our country, mid-cycle redistricting for Maryland presents a reality where the legal risks are too high, the timeline for action is dangerous, the downside risk to Democrats is catastrophic, and the certainty of our existing map would be undermined.” 

All redistricting fights come against the backdrop of the looming Supreme Court decision on the future of the Voting Rights Act. If the court weakens or invalidates Section 2 of the VRA, which has been traditionally implemented by creating majority-minority districts, it could lead to a wave of partisan redistricting, particularly across the South. A report by the Fair Fight Action and the Black Voters Matter Fund found that Democrats would likely lose 19 seats in Congress if the Supreme Court weakens the protections spelled out in Section 2 of the VRA.

In case you missed it, Bill de Blasio is not a fan of Zohran Mamdani… but not that Bill de Blasio. 

Also, farewell to Mrs. Fawlty. 

-Jack O’Donnell

Should House and Senate Democrats agree to reopen the government first, and then negotiate healthcare subsidies, as President Trump and Republican leaders have asked?