On the Line

Redistricting in Court, NY's Battleground, Clean Slate

Author

Jack O’Donnell
November 20, 2023

Good morning from Buffalo, New York, the center of the political universe last week as the New York State Court of Appeals heard oral arguments in a redistricting case that could very well determine who controls Congress in 2024. The seven-judge panel will now decide whether to keep the current Congressional lines drawn by a court-appointed Special Master in 2022 or kick it back to the Independent Redistricting Commission (IRC) to draw new lines.  After the original IRC map was found unconstitutional, the Special Master drew boundaries that encouraged competition, a major factor in Republicans adding four House seats in New York in 2022. 

Democrats argue the 2022 map was merely a temporary fix and now the process should be returned to the IRC. Aria Branch, an attorney for the petitioners, said in Court, “If you read the Constitution altogether as we must, it's clear that the IRC and the Legislature can draw maps at the beginning of the decade but they can also draw maps to remedy violations of law.” Should the Court of Appeals agree, the new lines would certainly be more favorable to Democrats, especially in the key battlegrounds of Long Island and the Hudson Valley. Given the small and fractured GOP majority in the House, any NY seat that Democrats can flip back will go a long way in improving their chances to retake control of the lower chamber. 

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“If you read the Constitution altogether as we must, it's clear that the IRC and the Legislature can draw maps at the beginning of the decade but they can also draw maps to remedy violations of law.”

Aria Branch, an attorney for the petitioners

New York will certainly be a battleground, the Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan political analyst, has updated their ratings:

  • NY-01: Likely Republican

  • NY-03: Lean Democrat

  • NY-04: Toss Up

  • NY-17: Toss Up

  • NY-18: Lean Democrat

  • NY-22: Toss Up

One seat that is in the middle of it, NY-03, will not have an incumbent as serial fabulist Rep. George Santos (R-NY) announced he will not be seeking reelection.  That announcement comes on the heels of a damning bipartisan House Ethics report which found “substantial evidence” that Santos violated federal law.

The report concludes that Santos “sought to fraudulently exploit every aspect of his House candidacy for his own personal financial profit through a constant series of lies to his constituents, donors, and staff about his background and experience.” One episode of note was a $50,000 transfer of campaign funds to Rep. Santos’ personal account which were then used to pay off personal credit card bills, make a $4,127.80 purchase at Hermes, and for a number of smaller purchases on OnlyFans and at Sephora. 

The report concludes that Santos “sought to fraudulently exploit every aspect of his House candidacy for his own personal financial profit through a constant series of lies to his constituents, donors, and staff about his background and experience.”

Santos escaped an expulsion vote earlier this month as members on both sides of the aisle had concerns over the precedent of removing a colleague without a decision from a court or a finding by the Ethics Committee.

Now that the Committee has released their findings, Republicans are likely to move forward with another vote to expel Santos after the Thanksgiving recess. A number of Democrats and Republicans who voted against expelling Santos have now said they will vote in favor of expulsion as a result of the ethics report, including Rep. Jeff Jackson (D-N.C.) who said, “Rep. Santos has received his due process. This report is fully damning. I will vote to expel him.”

If Santos is expelled or was to resign, New York would be looking at two special elections. In Buffalo, longtime Congressman Brian Higgins has announced he will be stepping down from Congress in February. 

He has not announced his next steps, but credible reports indicate he will lead Shea’s Performing Arts Center in Buffalo after 19 years in the House. Once Higgins formally steps down, the Governor has 10 days to call a special election, and it must be held within 70-80 days of that announcement.

In the meantime, the government will remain open for the immediate future as Congress passed a short-term Continuing Resolution (CR) last week to fund the government at current levels in the short term. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) moved forward with a “laddered” CR that bifurcates funding: the Agriculture, Transportation, Housing and Urban Development, and Veterans Affairs Departments are funded through January 19th while the rest of the government is funded through Feb. 2nd. The proposal passed by a margin of 336-95 and ultimately garnered more support from House Democrats than Republicans. The Senate voted overwhelmingly to pass the measure and President Biden signed the bill on Thursday while in San Francisco for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit. 

Republicans spent the week fighting the lack of spending cuts contained in the CR but also fighting… themselves. Rep. Tim Burchett (R-TN), one of the eight Republicans who voted to remove former Speaker Kevin McCarthy, claimed that the former Speaker hit him with a “clean shot to the kidneys” while Burchett was doing an interview in a Capitol hallway.

Burchett went on to say, “[McCarthy] is the type of guy that, when you were a kid, would throw a rock over the fence and run home and hide behind his mama’s skirt.” McCarthy denied hitting Burchett and said, “If I kidney punched him, he’d be on the ground.”

Across the Capitol, Senator Markwayne Mullin (R-OK) attempted to fight a witness during a committee hearing. Mullin took exception to the fact that Teamster President Sean O’Brien called him a “greedy CEO” and challenged him to fight in the Committee Room before Senator Bernie Sanders (D-VT) stepped in to deescalate.

Rep. Josh Hawley offered his take on the bad blood saying, “I will say it seems like things are maybe a little tense…. maybe it’s time for Thanksgiving.”  He is right.

Back in New York, advocates of criminal justice reform won a major victory last week as Governor Hochul signed the Clean Slate Act into law. The bill will automatically seal criminal records three years after sentencing for a misdemeanor and eight years after a person is released from prison for a felony offense.

The bill does carve out exceptions for sex crimes and Class A felonies. Governor Hochul offered, “The best crime-fighting tool is a good-paying job. That’s why I support giving New Yorkers a clean slate after they’ve paid their debt to society and gone years without an additional offense.” The measure will automatically seal the criminal records of roughly 2.1 million New Yorkers and Hochul indicated she sees the bill as an economic opportunity saying, “as our state faces a worker shortage, with more than 450,000 job openings right now, this new law will help businesses find more workers who will help them grow, expand and thrive.”

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“The best crime-fighting tool is a good-paying job. That’s why I support giving New Yorkers a clean slate after they’ve paid their debt to society and gone years without an additional offense.”

Governor Hochul

Looking to 2024, the State’s top fiscal leaders met last week for the annual “Quick Start” budget kickoff. The meeting, which includes State Budget Director Blake Washington, Senate Finance, Assembly Ways & Means, and the Comptroller’s office, unofficially begins the budget season by giving key decision makers an opportunity to align ahead of the Executive Budget release. With a looming $4.3 billion budget deficit, lawmakers will be tasked with reining in spending while also maintaining support for essential services.

Budget Director Blake Washington offered, “In the last couple of years, we made some historic investments in school aid, health care infrastructure, mental health... we want to make sure we preserve that spending and preserve those services, but also at the same time, acknowledge our receipts are not matching our spending.” Washington also reiterated that the State will not be raising taxes on the wealthy saying, “We're at our taxing limit for our personal income tax on high-income earners.” The State maintains $19.5 billion in a “rainy day fund” but both Washington and Hochul have made clear they do not intend to dip into reserves to make up the shortfall. Budget deficits are expected to persist, with the Department of Budget estimating a $9.5 billion gap next year and $7.7 billion deficit in Fiscal Year 2027. 

Budget deficits are expected to persist, with the Department of Budget estimating a $9.5 billion gap next year and $7.7 billion deficit in Fiscal Year 2027. 

Finally…

Just ask Jack…

Who has a leg up in the race to fill a WNY Congressional District? Jack is on the line with WBEN’s morning team to discuss the politicians lining up to run for the seat held by Congressman Brian Higgins who announced he is stepping down next year. Listen here.

Betta Broad

Betta Broad, Campaign Director for New Yorkers for Clean Power joins our Alec Lewis ‘From the Lobby with Jack O’Donnell’ to talk about her statewide collaborative campaign to shift to an equitable clean energy economy.

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