Game Time

Good morning from Buffalo, New York. Candidates across the state and across the country are making their closing arguments before voters head to the polls tomorrow.

Governor Kathy Hochul held rallies across the state to make her case directly to voters as to why she deserves another four years at the helm, offering, “My message is very clear. I’ve been so honored to be the governor of this state. It's a very diverse state, and I understand the stresses that families are going through. I lived many of them… I’m a fighter to my core, and when I have to stand up and fight... to make sure families have money back in their pockets and protect our kids, I know how to take care of people.” Hochul has also deployed arguably her most influential surrogate—New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani. The pair rallied together—twice!—in New York City recently with Hochul touting her “productive relationship” with Mamdani despite the myriad of differences between her and the 35-year-old Democratic Socialist.

Mamdani credited Hochul with helping him to deliver on many of his progressive campaign promises, notably universal childcare and increased state aid, offering, “[Voters] are excited about a new era of leadership, and the governor is instrumental in delivering that.” Hochul expanded on her relationship with Mamdani in a wide-ranging interview with Politico, saying, "I could go back to the old New York model of being at war with the mayor. Who’s the tough guy, who gets the press conference first, who makes the announcement before anybody? Withhold money because you can. And I saw that model, and it’s very destabilizing. People want to know that their leaders can actually put aside differences and work together.” Significantly, Hochul indicated she already has her eye on a third term in 2030 after a presumably successful day tomorrow, offering, “I’m not going anywhere anytime soon.” 

Hochul brought a little Halloween spirit to the final days of the campaign trail by appearing at NYC Halloween festivities alongside Mayor Mamdani and then teaming up with her husband, Bill, to hand out candy and pose for photos with trick-or-treaters on Brooklyn’s East 4th Street. Sporting leopard ears, the governor greeted families and voters as part of a final-stretch campaign push through Brooklyn and Queens.

GOP gubernatorial candidate Bruce Blakeman is also focused on Hochul’s alliance with Mamdani, but counter-wise by appealing to disaffected Democrats unhappy with the party’s lurch to the left, telling reporters, “The more Zohran Mamdani and Kathy Hochul campaign together, the more likely it is that I’ll have not only a victory, but a very, very astounding victory. The more he attacks me, the more Democrats come over to support me, the more independent voters come over to support me.”

Hochul quickly dismissed that line of attack, saying, “Those who question why I’m campaigning with him—he’s more popular than Bruce Blakeman across the damn state of New York. It’s amazing.” Hochul’s embrace of Mamdani is not by accident. In 2022, her campaign against Republican Lee Zeldin was closer than expected, largely because of lackluster turnout in New York City. Democratic turnout is unlikely to be an issue for Hochul this year, leaving Blakeman and the New York State GOP hoping for a polling error that breaks their way. President Donald Trump also renewed his endorsement of Blakeman, declaring that the Nassau County Executive will save New York from Gov. Kathy Hochul’s “failed and incompetent” leadership. During a tele-rally promoting Blakeman and other Republicans, Trump insisted, “Kathy Hochul may be the worst governor in the history of New York State and one of the worst in the nation . . . She's been a disaster, and I can tell you that Bruce has been a friend of mine for a long time.”

As the candidates spar over affordability and the state’s fiscal health, a new midyear report from the New York State Department of Budget found that the state is facing a smaller budget gap than previously anticipated, now projecting an $8.9 billion budget gap over the next three years, down from an estimated $14.7 billion earlier this year, due in large part to a strong Wall Street economy and higher-than-expected tax receipts. The projected budget gap for next year has shrunk from $6.4 billion to $2.9 billion, while the projected gap for fiscal year 2029 has fallen from $10.5 billion to $5.8 billion. Read the report here.

House Speaker Mike Johnson traveled to Orangeburg last week to campaign for Republican Rep. Mike Lawler as both parties intensify efforts in New York's 17th Congressional District, a race that polls indicate is within the margin of error. Despite his penchant for bucking party leadership, a trait that might be a net positive in this political environment, Johnson urged voters to send Lawler back to Washington “because he has been so good, because he's so effective for New York and for America, we've had an extraordinary record.” Lawler continued to draw media attention by spending an afternoon at a McDonald’s in Haverstraw meeting voters and scouting a potential job “if things don’t work out in November.”

His opponent, Democrat Cait Conley, was joined by House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries on the campaign, where she sought to contrast her military service with Lawler’s political background, offering, “Sixteen years on active duty, six tours overseas. Mike Lawler, for the same period of time, was a political operative, political consultant, oil and gas utility lobbyist, and politician.” In addition to being one of the most competitive House races in the country, it is also one of the most expensive, with both sides expected to spend more than $60 million. Many Republicans seem resigned to the fact that they will lose control of the House, but an early loss in NY-17 on Tuesday would all but guarantee it.

In NY-21, Vice President JD Vance is expected to be in Rome, New York, today for a last-ditch salvage operation to benefit the campaign of Republican candidate Anthony Constantino. The Vice President’s drop-in does not promise any confidence for the GOP, given that outgoing GOP Congresswoman Elise Stefanik won the district by 24 points in 2024. Constantino, who is running against Democrat Blake Gendebien, said he welcomes Vance’s help, saying in a statement, “I am very excited to host Vice President JD Vance in Rome on Monday, and look forward to seeing lots of our supporters there. We must get every Republican, independent, and common-sense Democrat out to vote Republican to Fire Kathy Hochul and hold our Congressional Seat.” Gendebien’s campaign responded with, “You don’t fly the Vice President into a plus-24 seat the day before the election unless you know you’re losing it. Blake has spent this campaign showing up in Rome and every town across the North Country. Constantino needed a federal escort to find it.” Constantino, who hired Republican operative Roger Stone to consult for his campaign, has ruffled plenty of feathers within his own party, and is even somehow involved in a lawsuit against the New York State Conservative Party Chairman Gerard Kassar over allegations that Kassar tried to have him killed. Candidate quality matters, folks. 

On the national stage, President Donald Trump reshuffled his rally schedule over the weekend to attend back-to-back campaign rallies in Iowa and Kansas on Sunday as the GOP hopes to hang onto control of the Senate. Trump originally canceled the Kansas rally with Republican Senator Roger Marshall, saying, “I'm not going to Kansas because he's doing very well. I feel perfect.” Trump pushed back when asked whether the reversal meant he no longer felt as strongly about Marshall’s chances, saying his “friends” said, “If you can go, you would be better than a tele-rally.” In Iowa, Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek is running much closer than expected against GOP Rep. Ashley Hinson in the race to replace outgoing Republican Senator Joni Ernst. Iowa is a crucial battleground for Democrats if they hope to flip the Senate, and nearly all available public polling has the race within the margin of error. During the Sunday rally in Dubuque, Trump encouraged the crowd to get out and vote, saying, "We're not going to let the jihadists, the communists, whoever the hell ... We've got more crap running for office. We're not going to stand for it."

Former President Barack Obama was on the campaign trail last week to gin up enthusiasm among the Democratic base in Ohio, Michigan, and Georgia. Obama was not shy about criticizing Trump, even taking issue with his interior design choices for the White House, telling rallygoers, “There’s gold everywhere. What’s up with the gold? Everything—more gold! He’s got the White House looking like Saddam Hussein opened a Cheesecake Factory.” The comments were met with a degree of righteous indignation from the online Right, who accused Obama of being an out-of-touch elitist, and the White House responded by producing a list of Trump’s accomplishments superimposed onto a Cheesecake Factory menu. Responding to the faux outrage, Obama said, “These are not serious people. They don’t have solutions to actual problems,” before later mentioning raising two young daughters, which meant, “I lived at Chuck E. Cheese and California Pizza Kitchen and the Cheesecake Factory—that was my jam for about a decade.” 

As early voting continues to hit historic highs, the polls and prediction agencies are doubling down on the predictions of sweeping Democratic gains. The Cook Political Report moved House races across Colorado, Florida, Indiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, and Wyoming in favor of Democrats. Erin Covey, the House editor for the Cook Political Report, offered in a statement, “Democrats now have the potential to win their largest majority since 2009. President Donald Trump’s approval rating is underwater even in deep red seats that he won comfortably in 2024, and heavy spending from Republicans doesn’t appear to be moving the needle.” 

In these distressing times, Election Night might be a very long night and even stretch into additional days, especially in the House. In both 2022 and 2024, it took 8 days to tally all the results. You can see when states have historically reported their election results here. 

If the polling holds true, we may know who will control the Senate, especially after a federal judge yesterday dismissed a Trump administration lawsuit seeking to block certification of the Alaska Senate race if the Democratic candidate wins. U.S. District Judge Sharon Gleason ruled Sunday that the federal government cannot proceed with its claim that voters could be confused between the incumbent Republican, Sen. Dan Sullivan, and a lesser-known candidate with the same name. The Obama-appointed judge concluded that the administration offered “no workable plan” to solve the purported problem it raised—potential confusion among voters about the presence of two Dan Sullivans on the ballot. Though the Justice Department asked the court to order Alaska to set aside ballots for an investigation, Gleason said there is simply no way such an investigation could be conducted in elections that depend on the secrecy of the ballot.

On the other hand, in Michigan, Democratic Rep. Haley Stevens endorsed Republican Mike Rogers in the Wolverine State’s Senate race, a remarkable break with her party that derails Democrats’ attempts to create a united front for Abdul El-Sayed and could deprive Democrats of Senate control. Stevens’s endorsement comes only a couple of days after she said she was going to vote for El-Sayed! The two former primary rivals have been involved in a public, escalating feud over El-Sayed's and his allies' criticism of Israel. “Abdul said that I was no longer welcome in his campaign and that I should stay away. And he’s right. . . And that’s why I am endorsing Mike Rogers for the United States Senate today,” Stevens said in a video posted to social media on Sunday after appearing at a Detroit church alongside Rogers.

Wow. What will today bring?

-Jack O’Donnell

OD&A joined transportation leaders, policymakers, and industry experts at City & State NY’s Transportation Summit: Connecting Ideas and Advancing Mobility to discuss the issues shaping New York’s transportation future.

From transit investment and congestion pricing to infrastructure modernization, street safety, and equitable access, the summit highlighted the challenges and possibilities ahead. It was a great forum for exchanging ideas, hearing diverse perspectives, and exploring policy solutions to keep New York moving forward.

OD&A’s Senior Advisor for Health Care, Dr. Ellen Grant, recently took the stage as a presenter at the 9th Annual Social Determinants of Health (SDOH) Summit held in Orlando, Florida.