The New Order

GOP Leadership Wrangling, Congestion Pricing Returns, NY Braces for Second Trump Era

Author

Jack O’Donnell
November 18, 2024

Good morning from Syracuse, New York. 

Elections have consequences and we are watching closely as that plays out between Congressional leadership elections and Cabinet nominations from President-elect Donald Trump.

House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) easily won his party’s nomination to continue as Speaker, helped in large part by a Trump endorsement and call to unite the notoriously factious GOP Conference. There was more drama on the Senate side in the race to replace Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) who has led the Senate GOP for nearly two decades. The contest was between three Senators—John Thune of South Dakota, John Cornyn of Texas, and Rick Scott of Florida—with the latter the candidate of the Trump wing of the party. Significantly, Senate leadership elections are conducted by secret ballot, but that did not stop an army of Trump-aligned social media influencers from launching a public pressure campaign on behalf of Scott. Tucker Carlson took to Twitter to write, “Rick Scott of Florida is the only candidate who agrees with Donald Trump. Call your senator and demand a public endorsement of Rick Scott,” with Elon Musk, Vivek Ramaswamy, and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. posting similar messages of support. Trump allies have pointed to past comments from Thune and Cornyn about Trump as disqualifying, and believe Scott would give Trump more latitude in getting his priorities through the Senate. In the end, Scott failed to advance to the second round of voting and Thune was elected the next Senate Majority Leader by a close 29 to 24 vote over Cornyn. 

Thune wasted no time in aligning himself with Trump, saying there was “no daylight” between him and the president-elect, and pointed to his role in passing the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act in 2017 and his work to advance Trump’s agenda through the Senate as GOP whip in 2019 and 2020. 

Thune also expressed support for “recess appointments,” a major priority for Trump which would allow him to short circuit the arduous Senate confirmation process in order to fill executive and judiciary branch positions by fiat. Trump avoided making a public endorsement in the race, but stipulated, “Any Republican Senator seeking the coveted LEADERSHIP position in the United States Senate must agree to Recess Appointments, without which we will not be able to get people confirmed in a timely manner.” When asked if he would be willing to sidestep the Senate’s “advise and consent” duty by permitting recess appointments, Thune said, “[What] we’re going to do is make sure that we are processing his nominees in a way that gets them into those positions, so they can implement his agenda. How that happens remains to be seen.” 

Trump privately backed John Thune in tight leader race, Sen. Steve Daines suggested.

Thune won his election the old-fashioned way, assembling a coalition that began with other GOP allies from similarly small states, defeating big-state, big-money rivals from Texas and Florida. The night before, Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-ND) told reporters that Thune could immediately count on the support of the three other senators from the Dakotas and Sen. Jerry Moran (R-Kansas), who won a House seat in 1996 alongside Thune and became one of his closest friends: Thune had five votes to start from three states with a combined population of less than 5 million people. In contrast, Cornyn could not even guarantee the support of his home-state colleague, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), who announced that he would support Scott on the first ballot.

Thune’s victory served as a reminder, perhaps only a brief one, that the Senate can often times serve as an independent body somewhat immune from presidential pressure. Certainly, Thune spent the past several months trying to reassure the Trump forces that he would be a loyal soldier for an agenda—securing the border, lowering taxes, getting tough on crime—that matches up with Senate Republicans’ own plans. In the news conference for the new leadership team, Thune’s remarks included a reference to a “mandate election” and a vow to keep the Senate in session for lengthy stretches to confirm Trump’s Cabinet selections.

However, when asked about filibuster rules that force 60-vote hurdles on most legislation, Thune retreated into Senate-speak by referring to the Chamber’s tradition of being a “place where the minority has a voice.” That’s his way of trying to say that should Trump reach a point at which he wants to pass legislation by blowing up the filibuster, Senate Republicans intend to oppose him. Republicans continued their almost 40-year run of choosing leaders from relatively small states, beginning in 1984, when Robert J. Dole of Kansas won a hotly contested race to become majority leader.

Notably, Thune’s comments on nominations were made before Trump announced some of his more controversial Cabinet appointments, including nominating Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fl.) for Attorney General. Gaetz, who had been under investigation by the House Ethics Committee for inappropriate conduct on the House floor, sexual misconduct involving a minor, and illicit drug use, has been one of Trump’s most loyal supporters dating back to 2016, but has not shied away from sparring with fellow Republicans. Given that history, he could face an uphill battle in being confirmed.

Senator Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) was not impressed with the choice saying, “We need to have a serious attorney general,” with Senator Thom Tillis adding, “At the end of the day, Congressman Gaetz, he’ll have a hearing, but I’m all about counting votes and I would think that he’s probably got some work cut out for him to get a good strong vote.” Equally puzzling to some Republicans was the nomination of former Rep. Tulsi Gabbard to serve as Director of National Intelligence, the top job in our nation’s intelligence community. Gabbard is particularly polarizing among those in the intelligence world for her defense of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, and her past refusal to condemn Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad’s use of chemical weapons against his own people. Sen. John Cornyn, who’s influence looms large as a senior member of both the Senate Judiciary and Intelligence Committees, appeared visibly uncomfortable when informed by reporters of Gabbard’s nomination and said, “We’ll do our job and vet the nominee.” 

How these nominees fare in the Senate and how comfortably the Senate abrogates its role in vetting these nominees is something we will be watching closely in the next couple of months.

New York will be well represented in Trump’s Cabinet, with House Republican Conference Chair Elise Stefanik's nomination for U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, former Republican Rep. and gubernatorial candidate Lee Zeldin tapped to run the Environmental Protection Agency, and former New York State police officer Tom Homan as “border czar.” State Senate Minority Leader Rob Ortt said the appointments show the strength and talent of Republicans in New York, despite being a minority in the state, offering, “You’ve got to have a strong personality to be here and survive here, especially with Democrats being as numerous as they are here. That makes a certain kind of Republican come out of New York.” Stefanik, who Trump noted was the first Member of Congress to endorse him, has limited foreign policy experience, but has emerged as one of Israel’s staunchest defenders in the House. Zeldin’s better-than-expected performance in his challenge to Governor Kathy Hochul in 2022, while notably refusing to repudiate the former president, gained him notoriety in Republican circles, and, according to Trump, “[Zeldin] has been a true fighter for America First policies.” 

Stefanik’s ascension will further narrow the GOP’s already slim projected majority in the House and will set up a Special Election to fill the remainder of her term in the 21st Congressional District. Once Stefanik formally resigns, Hochul has 10 days to call for a Special Election, which must occur within 70-80 days from the resignation. The district was once represented by Democratic Rep. Bill Owens, but has become a GOP stronghold for the better part of the last decade. The county party committees that make up the district will appoint their respective candidates for the Special Election, though potential candidates have already expressed interest in running for a full-term in 2026. Paula Collins, the Democrat who lost to Stefanik this past cycle by 80,000 votes has already declared her candidacy, arguing that consistency and name recognition are needed for Democrats to close the vote gap. On the Republican side, Assembly Member Chris Tague, currently representing the Schohaire area in the state Assembly, has been floated as a potential replacement for Stefanik, and he said he is “seriously considering” a run. Other potential Republican candidates include Sen. Dan Stec, Assemblyman Robert Smullen, Rensselaer County Executive Steve McLaughlin, and even former Congressman Marc Molinaro who lost a nearby seat in this year’s election.

A Special Election Scramble to be Elise Stefanik’s Successor

Do Democrats have any chance in this deep-red district? Our Jack O’Donnell weighs in.

New York Republicans are not the only ones eyeing promotions. Senator Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) has put herself forward as a candidate to lead the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC), the campaign arm tasked with securing a Democratic majority in 2026 and beyond. Gillibrand has cited her party’s success in flipping back three Congressional seats in New York, and believes she can replicate that success countrywide saying, “For the last two years, we've been organizing, listening to voters, listening exactly [to] what their top of mind issues were, and then making sure we had an agenda and things that we've done and things we hope to do on those very topics.” Gillibrand has conceded that the prospects of Democrats gaining a Senate majority in the near future is unlikely saying, “I think it'll take at least two cycles, but I'm willing to do the work.” Gillibrand is so far the only Senator to publicly volunteer for the role. 

Trump’s forthcoming return to power has also forced Hochul’s hand on congestion pricing—the paused tolling program that would charge drivers a fee to enter parts of Manhattan. Hochul delayed implantation of the program just weeks before it was scheduled to go into effect in June, citing the increased financial burden on New York City residents at a time when the local economy was still recovering. Now, if congestion pricing is not implemented before Trump’s return to the White House, it may not be implemented at all. Hochul’s proposal will lower the base tolling fee from $15 to $9, the lowest price point possible without conducting a new environmental impact report. The new plan, if approved by the Metropolitan Transportation Authority (MTA) Board, will still need federal approval, but legal experts have said the Trump Administration will have a much tougher time reversing the program if it is already in effect. “As I said from the start, a $15 toll was just too high in this economic climate. That’s why our plan cuts the daytime toll to $9 for cars,” Governor Hochul said. “By getting congestion pricing underway and fully supporting the MTA capital plan, we’ll unclog our streets, reduce pollution, and deliver better public transit for millions of New Yorkers.” Although the toll was reduced, MTA officials still expect to be able to raise $15 billion through a bond sale, although some observers are questioning that assumption. Every dollar is essential; the MTA new five-year capital plan calls for an additional $33 billion in investment.

The new plan, if approved by the Metropolitan Transportation Authority (MTA) Board, will still need federal approval, but legal experts have said the Trump Administration will have a much tougher time reversing the program if it is already in effect.

Still, there remains a long way to go. Opponents have filed nine lawsuits against the program, including New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy and the Trucking Association of New York. Those lawsuits are still pending and some of these opponents are continuing the fight. This week, five House Republicans representing parts of New York City and its suburbs wrote to President Trump calling on him to block the program. “We request your commitment to ending this absurd congestion-pricing cash grab once and for all,” wrote the lawmakers, Representatives Nicole Malliotakis, Mike Lawler, Andrew Garbarino, Nick LaLota and Anthony D’Esposito.

The rush to implement congestion pricing illustrates the difficult place New York—and New York’s leaders—are in as we enter the second Trump Era. There will be significant pressure from Progressives for the state to move further to the left politically in order to demonstrate progressive values and leadership. There will be a real political price to pay for that in Washington where Republicans hold all branches of government and New York is not represented in the Senate Majority and our role in the House Majority has shrunk. There is also pressure on more moderate Democrats, especially those in swing seats, to move the party and our state more to the center as they watched so much of New York’s vote turn either purple or outright red. That pressure is particularly real on Governor Kathy Hochul who has sought to govern as a law and order, no new taxes moderate, especially as attention turns to her reelection campaign in 2026.

One particularly tough area where Hochul and her colleagues will be tested is Trump’s promise to drastically ramp up deportations and immigration enforcement across the country and specifically in New York City. New York City Mayor Eric Adams said he would work with Trump, but said, “No matter who is president or what party controls Congress, this city will always stand up for the rights of women, our immigrant brothers and sisters, our L.G.B.T.Q.+ community and millions of others,” and later added “Mass deportation—that is not going to happen in New York City.”

Will Hochul Fight Trump’s Plan for ‘Mass Deportations’?

Hochul, a Democrat, would be naturally inclined to push back on wide-scale deportations and invasive immigration enforcement. Nonetheless, the clear message from voters supporting Trump’s immigration policies adds to the pressure on Hochul, who has a history on this issue, to thread the needle more carefully, especially where it comes to law enforcement. When a viral video from earlier this year showed a group of migrant men fighting New York City police officers, Hochul took a firm stand saying, “I want them arrested, tried, and if convicted, I want them to spend time in New York jails before they are deported. Get them all and send them back.” There will be considerable pressure on Hochul to formalize cooperation agreements between state law enforcement and federal immigration authorities, which largely currently coordinate on an ad hoc, county-by-county basis. 

As we noted last week, there continue to be state lawmakers discussing the idea of returning to Albany for a Special Legislative session to shore up protections for New Yorkers before Trump takes office. Lawmakers would need a formal agenda to guide their activity during a special session, but a number of influential elected officials have expressed a desire to at least discuss what would be on that agenda. State Senator Jessie Ramos, who is also a candidate for New York City Mayor said, "I think that if we can utilize the time between now and the inauguration to pass stronger protections that are going to protect the most vulnerable communities, then that's actually our duty.” Assembly Member Karines Reyes said she believes a special session should be called to “build a wall” to protect New Yorkers from Trump’s policies, and Assembly Member Jessica Gonzalex-Rojas wrote on Twitter, “We should hold a special session to pass legislation to protect our most vulnerable New Yorkers from the expected Trump Administration. Resistance should start now.” So far, Senate Majority Leader Andrea Stewart-Cousins and Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie are not on board with Stewart-Cousins saying, “I know that people are talking about it, (but) that's not a conversation that I've had” and Heastie saying he “can’t commit to anything.” 

ICYMI: OD&A has compiled election results in races across New York State for the following:

—>Congress

—>NYS Senate

—>NYS Assembly

Read our complete summary here.

Of course, there is still work to be done from last legislative session with hundreds of bills still awaiting action from Hochul by the end of the year. Some of the more notable pieces of pending legislation include the Grieving Families Act, a high-profile bill that would dramatically expand liability for wrongful death cases. The measure passed both Chambers for the third year in a row, but has so far been vetoed by Hochul. Another bill, named the Climate Change Superfund Act, would create a $3 billion annual fund to invest in climate resiliency projects over the next 25 years, with large oil and gas companies who have operated in New York footing the bill.  

What does Congress have on its agenda for its lame-duck session?

At the federal level, lawmakers will also have plenty to do before the end of 2024. Congress passed a short-term funding bill, known as a Continuing Resolution, in late September that pushed the deadline to set a new budget to December 20th. Now, Congress will have to either pass a budget for the full fiscal year that would require sign-off from the Biden White House, or pass another CR and punt the full-year fiscal fight into 2025, when the GOP controls the House, Senate, and White House. Lawmakers are also expected to take a fresh look at additional disaster relief after Hurricane Helene and Milton devastated parts of the southeast. Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) introduced legislation that would allocate an additional $550 million to the Small Business Administration’s disaster loan program which has gained bipartisan support. The Farm Bill, a massive piece of legislation passed every five years that sets the nation’s agricultural policy, has been looming over Congress since they passed a one-year extension last year, and must be addressed before the end of the year. 

If you think New York politics is exhausting, check this out: In January, West Virginia will have four different governors in the span of ten days! On Jan 3, Gov. Jim Justice (R) will leave office to be sworn in as a U.S. Senator. Current LG/Senate President Craig Blair (R), who lost re-election, will be governor from Jan 3-8. The winner of the GOP caucus race between Sens. Tom Takubo, Randy Smith, and Eric Tarr will replace Blair as Senate President/Acting Governor from Jan 8-13. Newly-elected West Virginia Governor Patrick Morrisey (R) then gets sworn in on Jan 13.

Finally. . .

A pregnant cow created a three-hour ordeal for rescuers in the UK, when she decided to go for a swim.

OD&A Advances in Top 50 NY Lobbyist Ranking

OD&A is on the move! We are proud to be ranked #23 in City & State NY’s 2024 Top 50 State Lobbyists list, highlighting the best of the best in government relations.

Biggest achievement: OD&A is proud to have delivered results for our clients across New York! Last year’s wins included securing New York’s place at the center of conversations on artificial intelligence as well as record funding for critical infrastructure upgrades for upstate transit and utility authorities. Our success continued with significant policy progress, including implementing labor protections on renewable energy projects and enacting critical support for New York’s health care safety net. OD&A also provided essential capital and programming funds to arts and cultural institutions across the state, ensuring the growth and viability of New York’s tourism industry.

Key industries: Economic development, fintech, energy, health care, transportation

Notable clients: North Atlantic States Regional Council of Carpenters, M&T Bank, AIDS Health Foundation, Trillium Health, Regional Transit Service

How can we help you achieve your goals?

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Jack dives into Trump’s win in our Monday Morning Minute:

—>Where did he gain votes?

—>Harris's biggest misstep

—>What to expect from GOP control in D.C.

—>How will the NYS Legislature respond to a Trump presidency?

What do you think of Governor Hochul's new congestion pricing plan charging a $9 fee per car, down from $15, to drive into parts of Manhattan?

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