Resounding Victory

Good morning from America where former President Donald J. Trump scored an impressive election victory last week. Trump won everywhere, including all seven “swing” states, scored a very impressive win in the popular vote (the first Republican candidate to do so since 2004), and made gains across New York State, including in deep blue New York City. 

In fact, Trump outperformed his 2020 margin in New York by 12 points, winning 44% of the vote statewide. His gains in New York City were even more significant. Trump lost New York City by 37 points, but that represents a 17 point improvement from 2020 and a 26 point improvement compared to 2016. He saw a 35% jump in his vote share in the Bronx, home to a large Latino population where 71% of registered voters are Democrats, and narrowed his margin of defeat by more than 20 points in Queens—the two largest shifts among New York counties.

Jessica Ramos, a mayoral candidate and current State Senator representing Queens, offered, “The frustrations of Latino voters, and may I add Asian voters and even perhaps some Black voters, is the Democratic Party’s inability to deliver on bread-and-butter issues. They feel like they work and work and work, and it doesn’t really bear fruit. They came to this country to buy a house and provide for their families and well, that’s getting harder every year.” Rep. Ritchie Torres, a Democrat representing the Bronx in Congress, had a similar take saying, “When you are college-educated and higher income, you can be concerned with issues like democracy and culture. But when you are struggling to put food on the table, the cost of living is existential.”

Trump flipped five counties that Biden won in 2020—Nassau, Broome, Clinton, Rockland, and Essex—and only underperformed his 2020 margins in one county statewide, Yates. That partisan shift did not translate directly to candidates running at the state level—there will once again be 144 Democrats and 69 Republicans in the State Legislature. Republicans picked up one seat in the State Senate, enough to rob Democrats of their supermajority while Democrats gained one seat in the Assembly. In the 17th Senate District, which includes parts of southwest Brooklyn, New York City Police Department Sergeant Steven Chan (R) defeated incumbent Senator Iwen Chu (D) by nearly 10 points, representing the only Senate seat the GOP was able to flip, while in the Assembly, Democrats flipped three seats compared to Republicans’ two, with one of the bigger surprises coming from 143rd Assembly District in Western New York where Incumbent Democrat Monica Wallace lost her reelection bid to Republican Pat Chludzinski, a military veteran and current Lieutenant with Town of Cheektowaga Police Department. 

How did we get there? The finger pointing and blame game is well underway with the Democrats, a party famous for their circular firing squads. It begins with blaming President Joe Biden and his famously insular inner circle who would brook no dissent on his decision to run for a second term despite clear (and alarming) signs of his mental decline, as well as flashing red signs of voter disillusionment and discontent. One Harris aide told the Washington Post: “Joe Biden is reason one, two and three why we lost,” noting that Biden was “totally underwater” in the polls when Harris replaced him.

In fact, Biden—the only one who actually defeated Trump—became a punch line by the end of the campaign with Trump campaign aides joking that Biden was their best surrogate, donning a Trump hat, calling for Trump to be “locked up… politically,” and smearing Trump supporters as “garbage” on the same night Harris delivered her closing speech.

Team Biden, of course, is having none of it. Complaining that it was griping from Obama-era loyalists who derailed his candidacy in the first place and then helped steer the Harris campaign into defeat. Others placed the blame on Harris campaign chair Jennifer O’Malley Dillon, who took control of the Harris campaign after leading Biden’s successful effort in 2020. 

The reality is that Americans did not approve of Biden’s presidency; for all of the good done by the Bipartisan Infrastructure Act or the Inflation Reduction Act, voters did not see it, hear it, or most importantly, feel it. The voters thought the country was heading in the wrong direction, a fact that required Democrats to offer a new direction, one that the Harris campaign and Democrats never figured out how to offer. Around the Democratic Convention, Harris toyed with economic populism and teased a path with her Opportunity Agenda, but that soon took a backseat to a more corporate friendly path which even included Mark Cuban as a top surrogate and a return to a key assumption of many party strategists during the Biden years—that the central force in American politics was the backlash to the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade and a focus on Democracy, along with the rejection of MAGA politics and Trump’s personal failings.

There will be more soul searching, but there is an emerging consensus that Democrats failed to understand the average voter and their concerns, instead focusing too much on Trump.

“It’s very simple: If you try to win elections by talking to the elites of this country, you’re going to get your ass kicked—there are not enough Beyonces, Oprahs or Hollywood elites to elect anyone,” offered Chris Kofinis, a former chief of staff to Sen. Joe Manchin III (I-West Virginia). “Trump is not the disease. He is the symptom. The disease is political, cultural, and economic elites who keep telling the public what they should think, feel, and believe—and guess what they told them on Tuesday: Go to hell.”

Trump made gains with nearly every demographic group, especially with Latinos, first-time voters, and lower- and middle-income households, positioning him to win all seven battleground states and the popular vote.

That said, in addition to dropping her economic focus, there were three clear tactical mistakes by Vice President Harris and her campaign that stand out for me:

1. Focusing on Republican voters; The decision to elevate former Republican congresswoman Liz Cheney as a top surrogate for the campaign. In late October, Harris and Cheney did a joint tour of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan in an effort to win over Republican-leaning and independent voters, particularly women. But the voters who found Cheney’s message appealing were already going to vote for Harris—she did very little, if anything, to move undecided voters.

2. Comments Harris made during the 2020 Democratic primaries—where, in the words of one Harris aide, Democrats competed for the party’s progressive base by saying “absolutely bananas stuff”—came back to haunt her in a different environment and a general election campaign. Specifically, her support for using tax dollars to provide gender-affirming surgeries for federal prisoners and detained immigrants provided the Trump campaign with one of its most devastating lines of attack against her and one that made for a devastating campaign commercial. Trump advisers could not believe how well the ad tested. “Kamala is for they/them; President Trump is for you,” intoned the narrator on the Trump campaign’s ad that tested best. The campaign was prepared to push back on this during the debate, but when it did not come up then, they did nothing to counter it later.

3. Harris tells “The View” that there is nothing she would do differently. When asked if she had any disagreements with Biden, she said she could not think of any. For an electorate looking for space between her and Biden, this was fatal. When Harris became the nominee, some aides wanted her to distance herself from Biden—believing she could not win unless she drew sharp contrasts with the unpopular president. She was not interested in moving away from Biden, even though there were weeks of conversations about doing so. Vice President Hubert Humphrey made the same mistake and lost, too.

Of course, Team Harris and some other Democrats argue that the breadth and depth of the Trump wave were so high that no gaffe by the Vice President and no strategic decision by the campaign would have changed the outcome. Perhaps, but this was a close race in so many ways and everything makes a difference.

In fact, Democratic donors spent more on this presidential election than ever before—around $2 billion. Harris built a campaign with massive financial advantages, a larger volunteer footprint, more ads, and a smaller battleground than any election in recent decades. Make no mistake, the campaign had an impact: A Cook Political Report analysis found a three-point swing to Trump across the battlegrounds between 2020 and 2024; across the other 43 states, the swing was nearly seven points.

Trump, for all his weaknesses, was consistently rated by voters as better for the economy, but also on the other important issues, including crime and immigration, and even foreign policy. He was able to motivate low propensity voters and some first-time voters to participate and they turned to him in overwhelming numbers while attracting a record number of Latino voters. 

Somewhat ironically, Trump’s discipline may have made the difference. The former and now future president is well known for his eclectic approach to campaigns, something obvious over the close of the campaign. Nonetheless, Trump was consistent in acknowledging and appreciating America’s economic frustration and, more importantly, he promised to fix it.

Trump told voters at every rally and in every interview that Biden and Harris were responsible for inflation and promised to fix the problem. Democrats—and even economists—have doubts about his fixes, but in a country where most Americans believe things are on the wrong track, that promise was potent.

It is also worth noting that over the past year or so, the elections in Britain, France, Germany, India, Japan, the Netherlands, Poland, South Africa, and South Korea have gone poorly for the ruling parties. It reminds me, again, of Will Rogers who offered in 1924: “The more you read and observe about this Politics thing, you got to admit that each party is worse than the other. The one that's out always looks the best.”

More broadly, Democratic candidates outran the top of the ticket in many Senate races. In fact, they did so in every competitive Senate race except West Virginia and Maryland. Senate Democratic candidates did better than Harris by roughly 13 points in Montana, 8 in Arizona, 7 in Ohio, 4 in Nevada, 2 in Wisconsin and Michigan, and less than 1 in Pennsylvania with the votes still being tallied in some places. That was not enough for Democrats in Montana, Ohio, and Pennsylvania and Republicans will take control of the Senate in January. That will certainly be a boon for Trump Administration efforts to fill a Cabinet and to enact policies. 

Here is a breakdown of those races: 

West Virginia

• Jim Justice (R): 69%

• Glenn Elliot (D): 28% 

Pennsylvania

• David McCormick (R): 49%

• Bob Casey* (D): 48.4% 

Ohio

• Bernie Moreno (R): 50%

• Sherrod Brown* (D): 46%

Michigan

• Elissa Slotkin (D): 48.6%

• Mike Rodgers (R): 48.3% 

Wisconsin

• Tammy Baldwin* (D): 49.4%

• Eric Hovde (R): 48.5% 

Arizona

• Reuben Gallego (D): 50%

• Kari Lake (R): 48% 

Nevada

• Jacky Rosen* (D): : 48%

• Sam Brown (R): 46%

Still, a small glimmer of hope for Democrats, and a source of personal vindication for Governor Kathy Hochul, was the performance of House candidates in New York. After the GOP flipped five seats in 2022, many Democrats including former Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, were quick to blame Hochul, whose own gubernatorial margin was closer than several previous races. This cycle, Democrats were able to win back three of those seats and successfully defend two others, giving them control of five of the seven competitive House Districts. Hochul committed significant resources to these races, including raising money to fund an extensive field campaign under the auspices of the New York State Democratic Committee. State Senator John Mannion, who scored a very impressive nine point victory over incumbent Brandon Williams in Central New York, was quick to credit Hochul. 

It is certainly possible to overstate the role of Hochul and the state party in races that also saw significant Democratic Congressional Committee, organized labor, and various Super PAC investments, but if Hochul was blamed in 2022 then she deserves credit in 2024.

Here is a breakdown of those House races: 

1st District: Suffolk County

• Nick LaLota* (R): 55.7%

• John Avlon (D): 44.3% 

3rd District: Nassau and Suffolk Counties

• Tom Suozzi* (D): 51.5%

• Mike LiPetri (R): 48.5%

 4th District: Nassau County

• Laura Gillen (D): 51%

• Anthony D’Esposito* (R): 49%

17th District: Rockland, Westchester, Putnam, and Dutchess Counties

• Mike Lawler* (R): 52.4%

• Mondaire Jones (D): 45.6%

18th District: Dutchess, Ulster, and Orange Counties

• Pat Ryan* (D): 56.7%

• Alison Esposito (R): 43.3%

19th District: Hudson Valley and Southern Tier, including Binghamton and Ithaca

• Josh Riley (D): 50.6%

• Marc Molinaro* (R): 49.4%

22nd District: Central New York, including Syracuse

• John Mannion (D): 54.1%

• Brandon Williams* (R): 45.9%

Despite the gains here in New York, the GOP appears poised to retain control of the House. As of now, nineteen House races remain uncalled, and Republicans have to win just five of them to hang on to control of the Lower Chamber. The closest races, where the Republicans could all but clinch a victory in the House with an incumbent sweep, includes those of Republican Reps. Michelle Steel, Ken Calvert, and John Duarte in California, and David Schweikert and Juan Ciscomani in Arizona. Also in California, the seat that former Rep. Katie Porter gave up to run for an open Senate seat appears to have flipped to the GOP, though the race remains too close to call.

Next week, both House Democrats and Republicans will hold elections to nominate members for key leadership posts. Current House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) formally announced his intent to seek reelection with House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) and House Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-Minn.) as his deputies. In his letter, Johnson wrote, “To truly make America great again, we will need to begin delivering for the people on day one. In preparation, we have worked diligently for the past year to be ready with a priority list of key conservative policy wins that we can achieve together with our Senate Republican colleagues, working hand-in-hand with the new Trump Administration. We can secure our borders, prioritize the needs of Americans above foreigners, promote investment and opportunity through the tax code, return to American energy dominance, dramatically reduce regulations, expand school choice, end the woke agenda, and restore fiscal sanity to Washington—among other pressing items.” Johnson will likely win the nomination easily, but could face some headwinds in securing majority support on the House floor when the new Congress convenes on Jan. 3. Given that Democrats will vote for their own candidate, and possibly similarly slim margins on the GOP side, Johnson will need near unanimous support among his conference to be reelected Speaker. 

Democrats, bracing for another cycle in the minority, are poised to reelect House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, Minority Whip Katherine Clark and Democratic Caucus Chair Pete Aguilar. They are, however, waiting to organize committee assignments until there is more clarity as to who will be in the majority, and with what margins. In a statement, Aguilar said, “While control of the House has not yet been decided, I am writing to share with you the details of our upcoming Caucus leadership elections. We must prepare to continue our work to put People Over Politics in the 119th Congress while the process of counting every vote continues. . . Please note that organizational business pertaining to Committee Chair or Ranking Member elections will occur at a later date.” 

The Senate will also hold leadership elections, with Sens. John Thune (S.D.), John Cornyn (Texas), and Rick Scott (Fla.) as the declared candidates. Scott was the winner in a Twitter poll by Elon Musk, and was the first to offer support of Trump’s plan for ‘recess appointments,’ temporary appointments without the formal appointment from the Senate. On social media, Trump offered, “Any Republican Senator seeking the coveted LEADERSHIP position in the United States Senate must agree to Recess Appointments (in the Senate!), without which we will not be able to get people confirmed in a timely manner.” 

Congress will be in session for five weeks for the ‘lame duck’ session, the period in between the Election and the end of the Congressional session on December 31st. The top item for lawmakers will be funding the government, with the short-term Continuing Resolution (CR) passed in October set to expire on December 20th. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has not said whether his conference will push for a full-year spending bill, or pass another short-term CR and kick the full-term fighting to the next Congress. McConnell offered, “We are going to have to figure out how to finish up the year and that always involves a conversation between Senator Schumer and myself. As to how we wrap it up. But those conversations haven’t started yet.” More on that next week.

Trump’s victory also has Democrats in New York discussing their own special session to Trump-proof New York. State Sen. Gustavo Rivera has been pushing, telling City & State NY: “I sincerely believe that we should assume that he's going to do everything that he says he's going to do,” Rivera said. “That is going to be disastrous to communities across the country, and certainly in New York.” He also said that he’s open to a series of executive actions if not a special session in the next two months. Several other legislators agree and the idea has been percolating, especially at Somos, though neither Governor Hochul, Speaker Carl Heastie, nor Majority Leader Andrea Stewart Cousins has committed to the idea. 

Another idea getting a lot of talk is congestion pricing. Reports are that Hochul is looking to revive the concept, but at $9 per ride rather than the original $15. The idea is no more popular with opponents than when Hochul “paused” it in June, but all indications are that the lower fee could be instituted without any further action by the Legislature or the United States Department of Transportation.  Much more to come on this.

President Joe Biden also has his own priorities for the remaining days of his presidency, saying at a press conference last week, "We have 74 days to finish the term, our term. Let’s make every day count. That’s the responsibility we have to the American people.” Among Biden’s priorities are assisting hurricane victims, passing the National Defense Authorization Act, and getting his final slew of judicial nominees confirmed. The White House has also expressed a desire to negotiate a new aid package for Ukraine, as well as continuing to pursue an end to the war in Gaza. One of Biden’s final acts, which has become customary among outgoing presidents, will be issuing a final round of presidential pardons and commutations, though he reiterated that his son, Hunter, will not be on the list. 

-Jack O’Donnell

Client News

OD&A client, Niagara Falls Redevelopment is taking the next steps on a plan to build a massive data center campus in downtown Niagara Falls, despite an ongoing eminent domain fight. [Read more.]

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This Day in History

November 11, 1921: The Tomb of the Unknown Soldier is dedicated at Arlington Cemetery in Virginia during an Armistice Day ceremony presided over by President Warren G. Harding. It serves as a symbolic grave for all war dead whose remains have not been found or identified.

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‘An Earthquake’ Along the Border: Trump Flipped Hispanic South Texas

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As Trump Joined the Podcast Revolution, Legacy Media Got Left Out

How Harris Won at TikTok But Lost the Election

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