Blue Wave

Good morning from Buffalo, New York. What a week!

In New York City, Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani was officially elected as New York City’s 111th mayor, ushering in a new era of progressive politics powered by generational and economic change. Mamdani won over 1 million votes! That represented over 50.6% of the electorate, ending the canard that former Governor Andrew Cuomo would have prevailed if only Republican Curtis Sliwa had dropped out of the race. Mamdani, the self-described Democratic socialist, did not shy away from his ideological views during his victory speech, opening with a quote from Eugene Debs, the socialist leader and five-time presidential candidate.

Mamdani was equally bold in remarks directed at President Donald Trump, declaring, “New York will remain a city of immigrants, a city built by immigrants, powered by immigrants, and as of tonight, led by an immigrant. So, hear me, President Trump, when I say this: To get to any of us, you will have to get through all of us.” That is sure to be a welcome challenge for Trump and the GOP, who are already elevating Mamdani as the face of the Democratic Party heading into next year’s midterm elections. 

Of course, the salience of Trump’s attacks will depend largely on how Mamdani governs once in office, and much of Mamdani’s ambitious agenda will require the cooperation—or the outright permission—of Governor Kathy Hochul and his soon-to-be former colleagues in the state legislature. Mamdani’s campaign promises of free universal childcare and free buses rely heavily on revenue from a tax hike on the wealthiest New Yorkers, a policy Hochul has shown little interest in, especially given New York’s already high tax burden.

Just days before the election, Hochul offered, “I’m concerned about outmigration of people who are the ones who are supporting our budget. I cannot make up for that with middle-class tax increases. I cannot do that to the middle class and the struggling New Yorkers. So, this is the balance…” While Hochul’s reasoning for not raising taxes may be pragmatic, there could be a political benefit, according to a new poll. The Siena Research Institute poll, commissioned by the progressive group Invest in Our New York, found 51% of statewide voters support “raising taxes on large corporations and the top 5% of wealthy New Yorkers if the funds are used for universal childcare, affordable housing, and public transportation.” When polling strictly Democrats, that number jumps to 66%. More concerning for Hochul heading into an election year of her own is the poll’s finding that just 36% of New Yorkers agree that the state is on the right track. 

It was a good night for Democrats across New York, with Democrat Dorcey Applyrs winning the race for Albany Mayor and Democrat Sharon Owens winning the race for Syracuse Mayor, both becoming the first African American woman to hold the position. Further down the I-90, Democrat Sean Ryan won handily in Buffalo, becoming the first newly elected mayor since former Mayor Byron Brown took office in 2006. There were also less-publicized wins fueling optimism among New York’s Democrats. In the Rochester suburb of Greece, Jeff McCann became the first Democrat elected to the supervisor position in over 100 years, winning 58-42%. Also in Monroe County, Democrat Jennifer Townsend defeated incumbent Republican Ciaran Hanna to become the first Democrat elected in Perinton in nearly a century. 

In the suburbs of Buffalo, Democrats swept every race in Amherst and turned a 5-2 Republican advantage on the Cheektowaga Town Board to 5-2 Democrats. In Onondaga County, Democrats won every contested seat in the County Legislature, giving Democrats a 10-7 majority and flipping the county blue for the first time in 50 years. In the Hudson Valley, Republican incumbent Steve Neuhaus was reelected as Orange County Executive, though Democrats appear to have flipped enough seats to break the GOP supermajority. Democrats won nine of fourteen contested seats on the Dutchess County Legislature, giving them a majority for the first time since 2008. Republican victories were confined mainly to the Hamburg Town Board (where Hochul served for 12 years) and on Long Island, where Republican Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman dramatically expanded his margin of victory compared to 2021. 

At the state level, Democrat Michael Cashman defeated Republican Brent Davison in the Special Election to replace outgoing Assemblyman Billy Jones in the 115th Assembly District. Republicans were hoping to flip the North Country seat to deny the Democrats their usual supermajority in the upcoming legislative session in Albany. 

Democratic victories across the country have seemingly jolted the party out of its post-2024 election malaise and shown that, whether you are a democratic socialist running in New York City or a former CIA agent running in Virginia, affordability and bringing down the cost of living are winning messages. Abigail Spanberger, the aforementioned Democratic candidate for Virginia Governor, outperformed even the most optimistic polls, defeating her Republican opponent by nearly 15 points. In her victory speech, Spanberger said, “Tonight we sent a message. We sent a message to every corner of the commonwealth—a message to our neighbors and to our fellow Americans across the country. We sent a message to the whole world that in 2025, Virginia chose pragmatism over partisanship.” Similarly, in New Jersey, Democrat Mikie Sherrill defeated Republican Jack Ciattarelli by a whopping 13 points in a race that many Republicans (and this observer) expected to be close. 

Last week’s results have also changed the trajectory of the nationwide redistricting battle ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. In a big win for California Governor Gavin Newsom, California voters approved a ballot measure, known as Prop 50, that will allow the state to redraw congressional districts to cut into the gains made by the partisan redistricting in Texas. Republicans, meanwhile, are second-guessing the utility of expanding the redistricting map after the better-than-expected results for Democrats. Given some of the margin changes we saw on Tuesday, some Republicans are worried that diluting heavily Republican districts to increase their chances elsewhere will only increase the number of competitive districts for Democrats. That was the calculation made by Kansas Republicans as they announced last week that they are forgoing plans to call a special legislative session to take up redistricting. In a statement, Kansas House Speaker Dan Hawkins said, “Planning a Special Session is always going to be an uphill battle with multiple agendas, scheduling conflicts, and many unseen factors at play.” 

Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) was seemingly undeterred by Tuesday’s results, formally announcing her run for Governor of New York, which has been months in the making. Despite months of prep, the Stefanik camp rolled out an incomplete campaign website littered with Latin placeholder text, prompting plenty of online trolling from Team Hochul. Stefanik and Hochul dropped dueling campaign videos, which you can watch here: 

Despite some of Hochul’s lackluster polling, it will still be an uphill battle for Stefanik in the traditionally Democratic state. Trump improved his margins by over 10 points in New York in 2024 compared to 2020, but still lost by 13 points. Hochul is also a prolific fundraiser, putting pressure on the statewide GOP to keep up. Finally, Hochul has the power of incumbency, a not insignificant factor and one that she has learned to wield quite effectively.

-Jack O’Donnell

Which mayoral candidate is best to lead NYC?