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Strong Headwinds
Voter Discontent, House Victory Lap, Honoring the Borinqueneers
Good morning from Waterloo, New York—the official birthplace of Memorial Day.

Politics always dominates the conversation in New York State, and a recent Siena College poll provides an intriguing snapshot into voter sentiment just about one year out from a potential gubernatorial primary election. In frustrating news for Governor Kathy Hochul, her approval rating remains largely unchanged at 44%, with a small majority of New Yorkers preferring someone else as governor. The better news for Hochul is that she continues to dominate the Democratic primary field with 46% of Democrats backing her compared to only 12% for Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado and 10% for Rep. Ritchie Torres. On the Republican side, Rep. Elise Stefanik is the solid favorite should she seek the GOP nomination. In a hypothetical three-way race, Stefanik leads the field with 35%, Rep. Mike Lawler at 22%, and Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman at 11%.
Incumbents face strong headwinds as voters across the nation, the state, and in local surveys strongly indicate their city, state, and the country are heading in the wrong direction. In last week’s Siena poll, 46% of respondents indicated their belief that New York State is headed in the wrong direction while 58% said the United States is headed in the wrong direction.
What do you think? Is New York State on the right track or headed in the wrong direction? Vote in our poll below!
Nonetheless, Hochul hopes her numbers will improve as voters begin to feel the effects of her budget policies (and hopefully give her credit for them). The poll found that 37% of respondents believe the inflation rebate check, middle-class tax cuts, and free school meals will help address affordability. According to the poll’s press release, “Three budget measures enjoy overwhelming bipartisan support. Making it easier for consumers to cancel subscriptions has support from more than three-quarters of Democrats, Republicans, and independents. Providing free meals to all public school students is supported by nearly two-thirds of Republicans, nearly three-quarters of independents, and more than nine in ten Democrats. And restricting K-12 students’ smartphone use during the school day has the support of 66% of Democrats, 67% of independents, and 68% of Republicans.” President Donald Trump’s favorability rating in New York is 38-59%, a slight change from April’s 40-55%. On individual policies, voters believe Hochul is right to push back on the federal government’s attempts to end congestion pricing by a margin of 46-36%, though a plurality of voters believe New York should assist the federal government with deporting individuals living in New York without legal status.
Speaking of pushing back, Hochul—and New York—had a big win with Empire Wind, a $5 billion wind farm project off the coast of New York, apparently back on track after the federal government lifted a stop-work order issued initially back in April.
1,500 union jobs.
500,000 homes powered by wind.
That’s what Empire Wind 1 will deliver.
I’ve been working with President @realDonaldTrump to save this project & today learned we’ve been successful. Grateful for his partnership on projects that create jobs here in New York.
— Governor Kathy Hochul (@GovKathyHochul)
11:11 PM • May 19, 2025
In a statement, Hochul crowed, “After countless conversations with Equinor and White House officials, bringing labor and business to the table to emphasize the importance of this project, I’m pleased that President Trump and Secretary Burgum have agreed to lift the stop-work order and allow this project to move forward. Now, Equinor will resume constructing this fully permitted project that had already received the necessary federal approvals. I also reaffirmed that New York will work with the Administration and private entities on new energy projects that meet the legal requirements under New York law.” As part of the potential deal, the Trump Administration will reportedly revive plans to build the Constitution natural gas pipeline from Pennsylvania to New York. On Twitter, Burgum offered, “Energy Dominance is the foundation of America’s economic and national security. I am encouraged by Governor Hochul’s comments about her willingness to move forward on critical pipeline capacity. Americans who live in New York and New England would see significant economic benefits and lower utility costs from increased access to reliable, affordable, clean American natural gas.” Hochul has tried to walk a fine line between affordability concerns and environmental legislation like the HEAT Act, meant to catalyze the state’s transition away from fossil fuels while balancing working WITH the Trump administration and standing up TO the president.
Sam Sutton. Senator-elect, talks about achdus and how the entire Jewish community came together around shared community values of chesed during his victory speech tonight.
Real Kiddush Hashem.
— David G. Greenfield (@NYCGreenfield)
2:11 AM • May 21, 2025
Democrat Sam Sutton won a special election last week for the 22nd State Senate District replacing former Senator Simcha Felder who resigned earlier this year to join the New York City Council. The district includes parts of Brooklyn that voted overwhelmingly for Trump last November, and Felder, a conservative Democrat, routinely ran unopposed on both the Democratic and Republican Party lines. Still, Sutton defeated Republican attorney Nachman Caller by a nearly 2-1 margin.
.@SpeakerJohnson (R-LA): "It's finally morning in America again … Today, the House has passed generational, truly nation-shaping legislation."
— CSPAN (@cspan)
3:58 PM • May 22, 2025
In Washington, D.C., House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) once again defied the odds to pass the “one big, beautiful bill” before Memorial Day. . . again with a key assist from President Trump. Johnson invited Trump to the Hill to encourage fiscal conservatives and moderate holdouts to get on board with the megabill. Trump’s message to GOP hardliners who want deeper cuts to address the federal budget deficit was simple: “Don’t fuck with Medicaid.” Trump was equally dismissive of concerns from blue state Republicans looking to remove the cap on state and local tax (SALT) deductions, reportedly telling Rep. Lawler, “I know your district better than you do; if you lose because of SALT, you were going to lose anyway.”
President Trump visits Capitol Hill to push for his tax bill reut.rs/3GXjmnM
— Reuters (@Reuters)
9:05 PM • May 20, 2025
Trump’s last-minute push worked magic. The House voted almost entirely along party lines—215 ayes to 214 nays—to advance the bill early on Thursday, with Republican Reps. Thomas Massie of Kentucky and Warren Davidson of Ohio joining Democrats in opposition, Freedom Caucus Chair Rep. Andy Harris of Maryland voting present, and Andrew Garbarino of New York not voting at all. Speaking from the floor, Johnson declared, “After a long week and a long night, and countless hours of work over the past year—a lot of prayer and a lot of teamwork—my friends, it quite literally is again ‘morning in America.’” Trump also took a victory lap, posting on Truth Social, “This is arguably the most significant piece of Legislation that will ever be signed in the History of our Country! Great job by Speaker Mike Johnson, and the House Leadership, and thank you to every Republican who voted YES on this Historic Bill!” Several compromises contained in the 42-page amendment attached to the original bill, combined with Trump's arm-twisting, ultimately won over many of the last-minute holdouts, including a provision to move up the start date for Medicaid work requirements from January 1st, 2029, to December 31st, 2026. The “SALT Republicans” did not achieve a full repeal, but the bill raises the cap from $10,000 to $40,000 per household with a $500,000 income limit. Lawler is selling the increase as a win, posting on Twitter, “SALT was my number one focus in Washington from Day One, and I’m proud to deliver tax relief for middle class and working families in New York this morning.”
Why did Garbarino, a leader in the SALT negotiations, not vote? Garbarino “fell asleep in the back, no kidding. . . I'm going to just strangle him,” Johnson jokingly told reporters after the vote, “but he's my dear friend.” In a statement issued by his office after missing the key vote, Garbarino said he would have voted for the bill. “I fought to lift the cap on SALT and ensure hardworking Long Island families see the benefits of this important legislation. . . I was moments away from the House floor, to vote 'yes,' when the vote was closed. While I am frustrated that the vote was closed before I was able to cast my vote, I am proud of the work we accomplished to deliver huge results for Long Island,” he concluded. Hmm.
The bill now goes to the Senate, where Republicans are likely to seek significant changes to the House version, especially the provisions included to win over GOP hardliners. It will require similar magic from Senate leader John Thune and persuasion from Trump to get it over the finish line.
Farewell to my dear friend Patrick NeMoyer. Patrick was as smart as anyone I have ever met in politics and incredibly generous in sharing that knowledge, wisdom, and experience. Beginning with my first job in politics, his advice helped me to succeed. |
Even when, or especially when, people rejected politics, Patrick was proud to call himself a politician and well-pleased with his part in the political process. That work made Buffalo and Western New York a better place. He also made me a better politician. Godspeed Patrick.
In honor of Memorial Day, a special thank you to State Sen. Nathalia Fernandez and Assemblymember Jon Rivera for providing seriously overdue recognition of the U.S. 65th Infantry Regiment, known as the Borinqueneers.
The 65th Infantry Regiment was the only all-Hispanic unit in the U.S. Army, serving in World War I, World War II, and Korea. The soldiers have been collectively awarded a Congressional Gold Medal, more than 2,700 Purple Heart medals, 250 Silver Stars, and 606 Bronze Stars. Well done. | ![]() “The Borinqueneers” were the largest, longest standing Latino military unit in U.S. history. |
![]() Thomas O’Donnell | Congratulations are in order for Junior Associate Thomas O’Donnell. Thomas, a saxophone player, was named Band Student of the Year! With respect to Bruce Springsteen and Clarence Clemons, everything changed when the Big Man joined the band. Well done, Thomas. I'm gonna sit back right easy and laugh. |
Finally, whither the once mighty semicolon? Usage of punctuation is down almost half in two decades. | ![]() |

Listen on your favorite platform! | ![]() Jack on high-stakes legislation in Albany in his Monday Morning Minute podcast: 🎙️Early release of inmates to ease stressed prison system 🎙️Why businesses are fighting the Packaging and Recycling measure 🎙️Will the Medical Aid in Dying Act pass? 🎙️Need for the NY Center for Dyslexia & Dysgraphia |

Client News

NYC Mayoral Forum on Gun Violence
![]() Our Alec Lewis with NYAGV Board Members and Staff | ![]() Students in NYAGV’s ReACTION Program |
Thank you to NYC mayoral candidates Michael Blake, Brad Lander, Zellnor Myrie, and Whitney Tilson for discussing your public safety proposals during a forum last week sponsored by OD&A client, New Yorkers Against Gun Violence, in partnership with The New School's Institute for Transformative Mentoring at the Center for New York City Affairs.
“From the green room to the grassroots—last night’s NYC Mayoral Forum on Gun Violence brought together youth leaders, policy experts, and changemakers under one roof. When we say ‘Your Vote is Your Voice,’ this is what we mean.” says Rebecca Fischer, NYAGV Executive Director.
Thank you @SenatorCooney and @NYSenator_JSS for securing these dollars to help @YMCARochester continue to serve military and veteran families through their incredible work at Camp Gorham!
@jess_scarcella
@JeremyCooneyROC— Marc Cohen🎗️ (@MarcCohenNY)
11:42 AM • May 14, 2025
New to the NYS Legislature

Assemblymember Andrew Molitor, a Republican, represents New York’s 150th Assembly District, which encompasses all of Chautauqua County. A lifelong public servant, former prosecutor, and committed community leader, Andrew brings a strong legal background and deep local investment to his role in the State Assembly.
Before his election in November 2024, Andrew served as Chautauqua County’s First Assistant District Attorney and previously held the position of President of the Bar Association of Northern Chautauqua. His legal experience provides him with a thorough understanding of New York’s justice system and fuels his commitment to restoring public safety. He is a vocal advocate for reforming bail laws, rolling back recent criminal justice changes, and ensuring law enforcement has the tools and resources needed to keep communities safe.
As a father of five, Andrew understands the daily economic pressures faced by working families. He is committed to lowering the cost of living through tax relief, reduced government spending, and opposing bans on natural gas and home appliances. He also champions affordable utility rates and robust investments in public education to support children and working parents alike.
Andrew is a longtime supporter of economic development and small business growth. He believes that reducing burdensome regulations and lowering taxes will help build a stronger economy and retain young families and entrepreneurs in Chautauqua County. He has also voiced serious concerns about proposed DEC wetland regulations and their potential impact on Chautauqua Lake, advocating for balanced environmental policies that protect local resources without burdening residents.
Beyond his professional life, Andrew is deeply involved in his community. He runs a men’s ministry and serves as a catechist at the Chautauqua Family of Catholic Churches. He lives in Westfield with his wife, Celia, and their five children, and is proud to represent the community he calls home.
OD&A in the Community
This dream team secured $59.6 MILLION for Rochester’s Convention Center!
Thank you @SenatorCooney, @SenatorBrouk, AMs @HarryBBronson, @sarahhartclark, @DemondLMeeks, Lunsford, @CountyExecBello, and Mayor @realmalikevans for working with @GovKathyHochul to make this happen!
— Marc Cohen🎗️ (@MarcCohenNY)
1:16 PM • May 19, 2025

Results of the Last Poll
Is New York State on the right track or headed in the wrong direction? |
Do you support a Constitutional Amendment in NY to rein in the Governor's power in the budget process?

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This Day in History
May 26, 1868: The U.S. Senate narrowly fails to convict President Andrew Johnson of the impeachment charges levied against him by the House of Representatives. Formal impeachment proceedings were initiated after Johnson tried to fire his Secretary of War. |
News
Worth a Read
![]() | Best Food and Drink in the Capital Region in 2025The Albany Times-Union ranks the best place to grab some grub, according to its readers. |
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