Power Shift

Good morning from the New York City Board of Elections, where the staff is preparing to run the Ranked Choice Voting at noon tomorrow after no candidate received 50% in the first round of counting. While the official results are not yet available, it is clear that 33-year-old Democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani defeated former Governor Andrew Cuomo and the rest of the crowded primary field to be the Democratic nominee for mayor in November. Mamdani, a three-term state assemblyman, won 43.5% of the first-place vote compared to Cuomo’s 36.3%. Speaking to his supporters at a victory party, Mamdani offered, “We have given our city permission to believe again. I pledge to you that we will remake this great city, not in my image, but in the image of every New Yorker who has only known struggle. In our New York, the power belongs to the people."

Mamdani's victory challenges the status quo of the New York Democratic Party, which is essential as Democrats look for a path forward following their devastating losses last year. The local dynamics reflect the broader divide amongst Democrats across the region—an inexperienced, young socialist endorsed by Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez against a ‘mainstream’ former governor endorsed by the Clintons and Jim Clyburn. It was a race few saw coming, especially as much of the establishment supported Cuomo, including so many willing to invest millions in him from across New York’s establishment.

Standing firm against a rising tide, one New Yorker was unwilling to buy into Cuomo, and that was Tish James. James spoke loudly and proudly at the Working Families closing ceremony declaring, “We cannot engage in amnesia, we must remember the past, we’ve gotta move past it, which is why we cannot rank Andrew Cuomo!” James turned out not to be alone. She was joined by hundreds of thousands of New Yorkers who embraced Mamdani’s Happy Warrior message. More from James, who said the energy around Mamdani’s campaign was reminiscent of another young, up-and-coming politician, offering, “It really represents the excitement that I saw on the streets all throughout the City of New York. I haven’t seen this since Barack Obama ran for president of these United States.” 

Mamdani’s optimistic message—centered on affordability and increasing city services—resonated with a wide swath of racially and economically diverse voters who have traditionally made up winning Democratic coalitions. Mamdani’s platform was simple and spoke to New Yorkers’ most pressing concerns—free buses, rent freezes for stabilized apartments, taxes on the wealthy, free childcare, and $8 halal.

Mamdani, who would be New York City’s first Muslim mayor, was also able to overcome allegations of antisemitism in the city that is home to the largest Jewish community anywhere in the world outside Tel Aviv. Give an assist here to New York City Comptroller Brad Lander, who cross-endorsed Mamdani and appeared regularly with him over the last weeks of the campaign. Lander finished a distant third in the election day polling and later appeared with Mamdani at his victory celebration. 

Business is not happy. Kathy Wylde, CEO of the Partnership for New York City, believes Mamdani will have to moderate if he is to be a successful mayor, saying, “This is a capitalist city with a historic relationship with Israel. Should he win the primary, he will have to deal with that. Or there will be a serious surge to try and prevent him from becoming mayor.” Dan Loeb, an investor and hedge fund manager, posted on Twitter, “It’s officially hot commie summer.” Nonetheless, Wylde is convening a meeting for business leaders and the Democratic nominee later in July.

This turmoil has clearly energized Mayor Eric Adams, who launched his reelection campaign on the steps of City Hall. Adams came out swinging, calling Mamdani a “snake oil salesman” in an interview on “Fox & Friends” and declaring, “Let’s be clear: They have a record of tweets. I have a record on the streets.” Adams contrasted his roots with Mamdani’s, talking about how his mother had cleaned houses while the Democrat is the son of a filmmaker and college professor and has acknowledged that he grew up in relative privilege. Will Adams' campaign be the bulwark that businesses want to stop Mamdani?

And whither Andrew Cuomo—who has the “Fight and Deliver” ballot line—and Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa?

What will Governor Kathy Hochul do? On Election Night, she posted a friendly tweet, but she has not joined national leaders, including Sens. Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders or local officials, including Assembly Member Rodneyse Bichotte Hermelyn, the influential chair of the Brooklyn Democratic Committee, in endorsing Mamdani. Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie had positive things to say about Mamdani from his time in the Assembly and indicated there are policy areas where the two can work together, specifically on taxes. 

Hochul continues to be a leading moderate in the Democratic Party, leading on public safety, fighting for no new taxes, and more recently, nuclear power. Those are just three issues seemingly at odds with much of Mamdani’s left-wing base, mainly since many of his campaign promises rely on increased revenue from a tax hike on the wealthiest New Yorkers.

The New York GOP is also trying to tie Hochul to Mamdani, hoping to peel away some of her support from moderate Democrats and independents. Rep. Mike Lawler (R-NY) posted on Twitter, “Paging @GovKathyHochul: do you endorse @ZohranKMamdani for New York City Mayor?” Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) joined in, offering, “Hochul is the leader of the NY Democrat Party and fully embraced the antisemitic, Communist nominee. She owns this catastrophe.”

As Republicans nationwide look to make support for Mamdani a wedge issue, pressure will only grow on Hochul—and Democratic Congressional Leaders Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries—to take a stand. In the meantime, a growing grassroots movement in New York City of Mamdani fans will be watching.

Also in New York City, Senator Brad Hoylman-Sigal defeated City Council Member Keith Powers in a race for Manhattan borough president. During his decade in Albany, Hoylman-Sigal emerged as a progressive leader focused on environmental conservation, LGBTQ rights, and tenant protections, eventually becoming chair of the powerful Senate Judiciary Committee. Speaking on his decision to move to city government, Hoylman-Sigal said, “I think I could be as effective in Albany as I was at the city level… I want to collaborate, as my predecessors like Gale Brewer did, to take a page out of her book on bringing people together to hash out the most difficult problems.” Sen. Hoylman-Sigal will be sincerely missed in Albany.

It was also a good night for the party's left wing elsewhere in New York. In Albany, city auditor Dorcey Applyrs won the four-way Democratic primary to succeed Kathy Sheehan as mayor. Applyrs, who had the backing of Sheehan, the Working Families Party, and Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie defeated businessman Dan Cerutti, Common Council leader Corey Ellis, and Albany County Legislator Carolyn McLaughlin. Much of the race centered around quality of life issues, public safety, and how to best deploy the $400 million aid package approved in this year’s state budget. Speaking to her supporters, Applyrs said, “Albany should and must work for all of us. Team Dorcey represents the best of Albany. We are diverse. We actually embrace diversity, equity, and inclusion.” 

In Syracuse, Deputy Mayor Sharon Owens easily defeated Common Councilors Pat Hogan and Chol Majok in the Democratic primary. Owens, who has served as outgoing Mayor Ben Walsh’s deputy for his eight years in office, told supporters, “What I believe I see here is our community saying we want to go to the future. We want to look to a vision we have for this community.” The general election will be a crowded affair with Republican Thomas Babilon, a former city attorney, as well as independent candidates Tim Rudd, who formerly worked as the city's budget director, and Alfonso Davis, a businessman and frequent mayoral candidate who failed to qualify for the primary ballot. 

Incumbent Rochester Mayor Malik Evans easily fended off a primary challenge from progressive East District City Councilmember Mary Lupien, ultimately defeating her by more than 20 points. Addressing his supporters, Evans said, “You elected a leader, and I want to be your leader as we continue to tackle public safety to ensure that we send a message that one shooting is way too many. That we continue to expand job opportunities to young people. To make sure that the best violence prevention program is a J.O.B. And that we understand that the power comes not from city hall, but from the neighborhoods. That the power comes not from elected officials, but from all of you in this room and all the work that you do to help transform our community.” 

In Buffalo, State Senator Sean Ryan prevailed over Acting Mayor Chris Scanlon in a crowded Democratic primary field. Ryan, who came into the race with endorsements from several powerful labor groups as well as progressive groups, received 47% of the vote compared to Scanlon’s 35%. With a comparatively low turnout—roughly 27% of the city’s eligible Democrats—Scanlon needed a much better showing in South Buffalo to overcome Ryan’s margins in the areas surrounding his current senate district.

The city’s finances dominated much of the campaign, and Ryan indicated that it would be the first issue he tackled, telling reporters, “We’re going to dig ourselves out of a deep financial hole. It's not going to happen overnight. Somebody's telling you they got a magic button for all this. There’s no magic button. It’s going to be a tough few years, but I’m confident that, if you’re straightforward, honest with the people of Buffalo, tell them what the plan is, they’re going to join in, because that’s what we do in Buffalo. We all come together.”

Scanlon declined an independent line in November and this race is effectively over. Scanlon will return to his South District Common Council seat in January. He closed his campaign with: “I am profoundly grateful to the thousands of people who believed in our vision for Buffalo and cast their votes in support of our campaign. Your trust, your hope, and your belief in the future we imagined together will stay with me forever.”

With most of the focus on politics, Hochul is getting a head start on policy by calling up 28 bills from the Legislature for her to sign or veto. Most of them are simple extenders of local law or tax codes, but a few are worth noting. There are two bills impacting New York City—one to extend the school zone speed camera program through 2030 and another to extend the tax credits for businesses that relocate to certain parts of the city or relocate to larger, older office buildings. There is also legislation to allow the state to loan the city of Dunkirk $13.7 million to prevent a looming default. The bill was hotly debated in the final days of session, but Hochul wasted no time signing the measure, offering, “Having spent years in local government, I understand the challenges our local leaders are experiencing, and this financial support to the City of Dunkirk is necessary to avoid a potentially devastating default that could ripple far beyond Dunkirk’s borders. This legislation reflects the State’s commitment to stabilizing local governments in crisis while protecting the broader financial integrity of New York municipalities.” Hochul also signed a bill that would require local governments and public authorities to notify the state when they are targeted by cybersecurity attacks and subject to ransom demands. 

-Jack O’Donnell

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