Mamdani Machine

Good morning. Today is the anniversary of 1950’s Miracle on Green, one of the greatest World Cup upsets of all time, when the American team, not much more than a hastily assembled group of ragtag amateurs, defeated an English team dubbed the “Kings of Football.”

Here in New York City, the dust is still flying after last week’s Primary Elections sent new shockwaves through the Democratic Party. New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani and his allies in the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) won big, going 3-3 in Congressional races and picking up a host of state legislative seats as well. 

Mamdani put his political capital behind a trio of congressional candidates against incumbents and in open seats, more “establishment” Democrats backed by the Establishment, including Governor Kathy Hochul and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries. The results speak for themselves. In the 10th Congressional District, incumbent Democrat Dan Goldman lost handily to the Mamdani-endorsed Brad Lander in a race that laid bare the party’s divisions over Israel (Lander is not a member of DSA, but was a key part of the Mamdani slate).

Assemblywoman Claire Valdez, with the support of Mamdani and the DSA, defeated Brooklyn Borough President Antonio Reynoso in the 7th District, despite the endorsement of powerful retiring Rep. Nydia Velázquez. In NY-13, Darializa Avila Chevalier, a doctoral student known for participating in pro-Palestinian protests at Columbia University, defeated Adriano Espaillat, a five-term congressman and chair of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus. Mamdani framed the insurgent endorsements as an extension of his campaign promise to make life affordable by challenging the status quo, saying during a cable news appearance, “I made a promise to New Yorkers that I would use every tool at my disposal to actually transform this city into one that they could afford. And one of those tools is using your political capital to ensure that the people who will fight hardest for that same agenda are going to be there, whether it’s in Albany or whether it’s in D.C.” 

The progressive energy flowed down the ballot as well, with the DSA winning at least seven seats in the state Legislature, nearly doubling their presence in Albany. Four of those candidates defeated other Democrats to claim open seats, while three unseated incumbents. Grace Mausser, co-chair of the New York City DSA, said that the wins demonstrate the staying power of the DSA, telling reporters, “These victories prove that the democratic socialists are building a winning coalition. While the Democratic establishment and MAGA fascists ignore the needs of working people, democratic socialists are speaking to the ever-growing base of voters demanding we end the war, abolish ICE, tax the rich, and win universal healthcare.” The DSA momentum was strong enough that only one incumbent with a DSA challenger—friend of the firm Jordan Wright in the 70th Assembly District—successfully defended his seat. 

Jeffries adroitly downplayed the rift with the progressive wing of the party and the accusation that Mamdani is making enemies by challenging incumbents, telling reporters, “The mayor and I agree to strongly disagree about some of his endorsements, and he’s got work to do in terms of the conversations that he’s going to have with Members of Congress moving forward.” It should be noted that Mamdani successfully convinced the DSA to forgo a primary challenge to Jeffries this cycle, though he may not be as lucky in 2028. At the DSA victory party on Tuesday, chants of “you’re next” broke out as Jeffries appearance on CNN was aired. 

Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie took the DSA gains in his Chamber in stride, with as many as five of his conference’s incumbents losing their seats. Heastie offered, “The electorate is very uneasy. As much as they’re unhappy with Republicans, sometimes parties here in control can kind of pay a price. These are changing communities, and the voters sometimes change who they want to have represent them.”

The primary results mean roughly 10 percent of the Democratic Conference will be DSA members in 2027, but Heastie is not worried: “Current DSA members, I get along with. I get along with the mayor of the city of New York. We all vote together, we all work together, so I’m not concerned about people’s identities and how they won a primary.”

Despite not having a primary challenger herself, Governor Kathy Hochul did not emerge from Tuesday’s races unscathed. Only one of her endorsed candidates, Assemblyman Micah Lasher, won. Lasher defeated a crowded primary field in NY-12, and she, like Jeffries, was on the losing end of the contests in the 10th and 13th Congressional Districts.

At the state level, Hochul endorsed incumbent state Senator and Erie County Democratic Committee Chair Jeremy Zellner, who lost handily to Assemblyman Jonathan Rivera (more on that race later). Hochul, who leads the Democratic Party in New York, indicated she is ready to move on from Tuesday’s results and unify the party heading into November. Talking to reporters, Hochul said, “What I already spoke to the mayor about was, how do we harness this energy and this excitement about the political process … and direct that against the biggest threat to our country, and that’s Donald Trump.” 

In Brooklyn, Rodneyse Bichotte Hermelyn’s six-year reign as party boss could be coming to an end after progressive challengers associated with the New Kings Democrats won a majority of seats on the county’s 42-member executive committee. Bichotte Hermelyn did not comment on her future as the county party’s leader, instead saying she remains focused on flipping a handful of GOP-held congressional seats in Southern Brooklyn, offering, “Change is hard for many—even when it’s your own party. I believe that you embrace the winners, even those you were not with, and you move forward with change. I think yesterday’s results, all of these unprecedented victories, say that progress requires both reflection and renewal. My priority is to be supportive of our members and to continue to build a team, a party, whether I’m county leader or not."

Bichotte Hermelyn is not the only county party boss whose standing is troubled. Erie County Democratic Chair Jeremy Zellner was routed by progressive Assemblyman Jonathan Rivera in the 61st state Senate District, raising serious questions about his ability to lead the party going forward. Zellner was the incumbent after choosing himself as the candidate in a Special Election earlier this year to fill the seat vacated by Sean Ryan’s move to Buffalo City Hall. To add insult to injury, his endorsed candidate in the race for the 149th Assembly District, Karen Hoak, lost an even more lopsided race against Rivera’s endorsed candidate, Adam Bojak. Rivera’s victory was also a notable victory for organized labor, especially New York’s powerful building trades, who were firmly behind the Assemblyman while all the region’s elected officials lined up with Zellner. 

A new poll from Siena University released last week shows Hochul with a 43-44% favorability rating, up from 41-46% in April, and her job approval rating is 53-42%, up from 48-44% in April. In a head-to-head matchup with Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman, the poll shows Hochul growing her lead to 20 points, 52-32%, from 16 points, 49-33%, in April. The poll also found that a majority of voters identify the cost of living as the main issue facing New York. Significantly, a plurality of voters said the proposed mid-decade redistricting amendments are bad for New York. We will be watching this one as it is on track for a public vote in November 2027. 

In case you missed it, Hochul announced she is forming an exploratory committee to determine the viability of bringing the Winter Olympics back to New York. A special shoutout to our friend Assemblyman Bobby Carroll for making this a reality. Further good news is that he will be on the committee, helping to move this forward. 

 -Jack O’Donnell

The OD&A team was there as Council Member Mitch Nowakowski held his Pride Happy Hour fundraiser, a great evening celebrating Pride Month and supporting his re-election campaign. It was wonderful to see so many community leaders, advocates, and supporters come together to celebrate Buffalo's vibrant LGBTQ+ community and recognize the importance of building an inclusive city.