Primary Test

Good morning from Utica, New York. On this day in 1848, antislavery Democrats from various states gathered here to nominate former president Martin Van Buren for another run for president. The delegates were unhappy with the National Democracy’s selection of a prominent advocate of popular sovereignty, United States Senator Lewis Cass of Michigan, to lead the ticket.

Van Buren was never supposed to win, but his almost 25% in New York helped throw our Electoral Votes to the winner, Whig candidate Zachary “Old Rough and Ready” Taylor (his running mate, Millard Fillmore, helped in New York as well).

In more policy-focused news, we are watching as lawmakers in the New York City Council follow the lead of their colleagues in Albany with a pair of bills to protect consumers from surveillance and dynamic pricing. The first bill would prevent companies from using personal data to set individualized prices in real time, known as surveillance pricing, while the other measure would prohibit grocery stores from increasing the price of an item more than once in a 24-hour period. Speaking on the proposed legislation, Council Speaker Julie Menin said, “New Yorkers should be protected from this type of price inconsistency and unpredictability, and more importantly, they deserve to understand how and why it's happening.” Some advocates, however, believe the City bill, unlike its state counterpart, lacks the teeth necessary to achieve the legislative intent, with Jeremy Espinosa of the United Food and Commercial Workers offering, “We believe this bill is too permissive. Laws that prohibit price gouging, but not the technology that makes it possible, create loopholes that companies can easily exploit.” More to come here.

Statewide, we have been watching New York’s transition and consolidation of the Medicaid consumer-directed personal assistance program, also known as CDPAP. The United States Justice Department is suing the Hochul administration over the issue. The civil suit alleges that New York Health Commissioner James McDonald and Medicaid Director Amir Bassiri made false or misleading statements regarding their handling of the transition from hundreds of fiscal intermediaries administering the CDPAP program to just one—Public Partnerships LLC. The CDPAP transition dates back to 2024 when lawmakers agreed on the consolidation to reduce the state’s Medicaid spending by $500 million, but the process was marred by false starts, confusion, and pushback from some of the 200,000 New Yorkers who rely on the home healthcare program. In a statement, Assistant Attorney General Brett Shumate said, “New York’s failure to police a favored vendor that unlawfully siphoned millions of dollars of Medicaid funding is egregious and betrays the public trust. The Justice Department is acting to ensure that federal laws regarding truthful statements and fair dealing in federal health care programs are upheld.”

The Hochul administration has pushed back on those claims, arguing that the lawsuit is yet further politicization of the Justice Department to target Trump’s political foes. A spokesperson for the New York State Department of Health offered, “This baseless complaint is the latest attempt by Washington Republicans to score political points at the expense of vulnerable New Yorkers. It is inexcusable and completely lacking in merit. The fact of the matter is, this administration saved CDPAP from a fiscal crisis by removing hundreds of wasteful administrative middlemen. In the process, we reduced costs for state and federal taxpayers while protecting home care for those who need it.”

PPL, the financial services company that was ultimately selected to administer the program, also pushed back on the allegations from the GOP, saying in a statement, “PPL was selected through a transparent, competitive process to strengthen and modernize New York’s CDPAP program, and we are proud of our work to deliver greater accountability, consistency, and support for the hundreds of thousands of New Yorkers who rely on it.’ Worth noting, the transition has drawn considerable scrutiny from Democrats in New York, as well, especially in the New York State Senate.

Long Island welcomed Vice President J.D. Vance last week to ostensibly promote the Trump administration’s efforts to root out waste, fraud, and abuse, but the appearance quickly transmogrified into a campaign rally for Mike LiPetri, the Republican favorite to win tomorrow’s primary election to run against Democratic Rep. Tom Suozzi. From behind the Vice Presidential seal, Vance said, "I'm not asking you to vote for Mike LiPetri because you're going to agree on every single issue, I'm asking you to vote for him because, unlike Suozzi, he's going to fight for you,” before dramatically adding that Suozzi is “the worst congressman in the entire United States.”

Vance’s superlative-filled rant did not end there, calling “Katie” Hochul the “worst governor in America” and labeling New York City “one of the most dangerous cities in the world.” Suozzi appeared in the parking lot of the event after Vance had left to push back on Vance’s litany of grievances with him, telling reporters, “He said I was the worst congressman in the United States of America! He also said I was an anti-Semite! He also said I was crazy! He also said a lot of absurd things! The bunting, the stages, the personnel, the seats, everything was paid for with outside vendors. This was paid for with federal money. This was billed as a federal official event to talk about fraud. Instead, it was a 100-percent political hit job.” Assuming LiPetri prevails tomorrow, the General Election will be a rematch of 2024, where LiPetri came within 4 points of flipping Suozzi’s seat. 

Vance was not the only high-profile Republican in New York last week; firebrand GOP Congressman and House Judiciary Chair Jim Jordan traveled to the Empire State to campaign for Anthony Constantino in the 21st Congressional District, currently represented by Elise Stefanik. In a statement, Jordan offered, "Anthony Constantino has spent his life creating American jobs and supporting Made in America businesses. While some Washington politicians and corporate special interests have shipped our manufacturing overseas, Anthony has been right here building opportunity for New York families.” Constantino will first have to get by Assemblyman Robert Smullen, who enjoys the support of the state’s Conservative and Republican Parties, in tomorrow’s primary contest. Trump’s endorsement of Constantino, largely attributed to the “Vote for Trump” sign he erected along the New York State Thruway during the 2024 campaign, put him at odds with party officials in New York who had hoped to clear the path for Smullen. Democrats are counting on bitter feelings after the Primary and a divided electorate to put the seat into play in the General. We shall see.

Tomorrow’s primary contests will test the political power of some of New York’s most prominent Democrats, many of whom are on opposite sides of contested congressional primary races. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, tasked with protecting incumbents as Democrats try to regain control of the lower Chamber, has endorsed Rep. Dan Goldman, who is in serious danger of losing to Mamdani’s endorsed candidate in NY-10, former NYC Comptroller and mayoral candidate Brad Lander. The two are also at odds in NY-13, where Rep. Adriano Espaillat, Chair of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, is facing a tough primary challenge from progressive and DSA-backed Darializa Avila Chevalier. Jeffries has worked overtime to promote Espaillat, including brokering a political truce between the district’s Black and Dominican power brokers to counter the influence of the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA). Rep. Greg Meeks, who represents Queens and Chairs the Queens Democratic Party, said to reporters, “Our communities aren’t going to gamble on untested leadership. That’s why Adriano has my support and the backing of leaders Harlem trusts like Cordell Cleare, Jordan Wright, and Yusef Salaam.” That race in particular has drawn a tidal wave of outside spending, with BOLD America, a group backing Hispanic candidates, spending $2 million on ads boosting Espaillat, and American Priorities, a super PAC opposing AIPAC, spending nearly $1 million supporting Avila Chevalier. Mamdani’s hope that his base will propel progressive challengers to victory is predicated on voter turnout levels that match or surpass the turnout for his election last year, but early voting results have shown that the surge of younger, more progressive voters has not materialized in this election cycle. Will it?

In the latest primary news, Georgia Rep. Mike Collins won the GOP runoff against former college football coach Derek Dooley to take on incumbent Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff in one of this year’s most competitive Senate races. The primary contest became a political proxy war between Trump, who provided a last-minute endorsement to Collins, and Georgia Governor Brian Kemp, who supported Dooley’s campaign. The real winner of the extended GOP primary was Ossoff, who spent the intervening months aggressively fundraising and bolstering his national profile. At the end of April, Ossoff had $32.5 million on hand compared to Collins’ $1.7 million. Trump and Kemp were on the same side in the gubernatorial runoff, although it was not enough to lift their preferred candidate, Lt. Governor Burt Jones, past billionaire businessman Rick Jackson. Jackson, a healthcare executive, poured nearly $100 million of his own money into his campaign and will now face Democratic nominee Keisha Lance Bottoms in the November General Election. 

In Oklahoma, GOP Rep. Kevin Hern won the primary race for the state’s open Senate seat after former Sen. Markwayne Mullin was nominated to serve as the Department of Homeland Security Secretary. However, it was not smooth sailing for Trump’s other endorsed candidates in the Sooner State. In the 1st Congressional District, Rep. Mark Tedford bested Trump-endorsed candidate Jackson Lahmeyer, but since neither candidate received more than 50% of the vote, the two will head to a runoff on August 25th. Similarly, Oklahoma Attorney General Gentner Drummond narrowly beat Trump-endorsed former state Sen. Mike Mazzei in the gubernatorial primary, though those two will be headed to the August runoff as well. 

In Alabama, former Judge Everett Wess won the Democratic Senate runoff last week for the Senate seat vacated by Sen. Tommy Tuberville, who is running for governor this year. Wess will now run against Republican Rep. Barry Moore, a Trump ally, who easily defeated his primary challenger. 

Maryland is officially entering the national redistricting wars following last week's announcement that Democratic leaders plan to call a Special Session after tomorrow’s primary elections to pass a constitutional amendment that will go before voters in November. Maryland’s current delegation is a 7D-1R split, but Democrats are clamoring for an 8D-0R map to counter GOP efforts elsewhere. State Senate President Bill Ferguson, a Democrat, killed any hope of enacting a new map for 2026, but appears to have dropped his opposition for 2028 in the aftermath of the Supreme Court’s decision to gut the Voting Rights Act. A primary challenge that materialized after he blocked the 2026 redistricting likely also impacted his decision to stand down.  

 -Jack O’Donnell

OD&A was there as Assemblymember Karen McMahon held her campaign kickoff fundraiser. Since her election in 2018, McMahon has represented the 146th Assembly District, serving Amherst and Williamsville after a distinguished three-decade career as a law clerk in both state and federal courts.