The Real Deal

We are watching the dust begin to settle in Albany after a whirlwind end to the 2026 Legislative Session.

Thanks to our friends at Capitol Confidential, we have a tally of which lawmakers were most effective in passing legislation. Assemblymember Amy Paulin, Chair of the Assembly Health Committee, led the way with 46 bills passing both the Senate and Assembly. Senator James Skoufis was a close second with 40 bills passing both Chambers, followed by Senator Michelle Hinchey at 34, Senator Monica Martinez at 31, and Senator Pete Harckham at 30, rounding out the top five. All but 13 members of the legislature—11 Republicans and 2 Democrats—had at least one bill that passed both Chambers. 

Governor Kathy Hochul officially approved the state budget last week, and in a bit of a surprise, the accompanying budget financial plan revealed that the total price tag of the budget will now be $277 billion! That’s a lot of money, and the total is up, significantly, from the $268 billion previously announced. According to the Department of Budget, the upward adjustment was due to additional access to federal funding, not higher state spending. Much of the additional $9 billion comes from a federal trust fund that will help offset the costs of New York’s expanded Medicaid program, known as the Essential Plan. The financial plan also provided less rosy projections for New York’s out-year budget gaps, now projected at $6.4 billion in 2028, $10.5 billion in 2029, and $14.7 billion in 2030. Those increases are largely attributed to the enhanced benefits to the Tier VI pension system that Hochul and lawmakers negotiated as part of the budget process, as well as growing school aid projections.

The Citizens Budget Commission, New York’s respected nonpartisan fiscal watchdog group, offered a deep analysis on the financial plan, writing in a statement, “What’s crystal clear is that despite very strong revenues, the State squandered the opportunity to stabilize its fiscal future. It kept its rainy day reserves virtually flat, even amid mixed economic currents. It layered billions of dollars of spending on top of a base it already could not sustain. This year’s total budget comes in at $277.0 billion. Adjusted State Operating Funds spending—what comes directly from New Yorkers' pocketbooks—reaches $174.1 billion, a 9.7 percent increase. Over the past decade, State spending has grown $40.6 billion higher than inflation.” The reality of an election year—like this—certainly helps make this next year’s problem, but what of next year? Combined with the chaos that the midterm elections could unleash in Washington, budget negotiations in 2027 could make 2026 look like fun . . . let’s just say that next year, the OD&A team will not be making vacation plans in April (or May or June). 

In Washington, D.C., the four-month partisan standoff over funding for Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and Border Patrol has officially ended after the House passed a $70 billion funding package last week to fund those agencies for three years. Democrats had refused to include the funding in the larger spending bill passed earlier this year without major reforms to ICE, prompting Republicans to use the budget reconciliation process to circumvent Democratic opposition. Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin, who was brought in to replace Kristi Noem after questions were raised about her control over the agency and her ethically dubious procurement processes, assured lawmakers that DHS agents would now be seeking judicial orders to enter private residences and would be subject to more rigorous training, but it was not enough to get Democrats to drop their opposition. During a hearing earlier this month, Mullin told Democratic appropriators, “You would never get to ‘yes,’ and so we walked away and did reconciliation.” 

President Donald Trump has called on Republicans in Congress to take up another reconciliation bill this summer to provide an additional $350 billion to the Pentagon, among his other priorities. However, many Republicans, especially in the Senate, are not jumping at the opportunity to provide further funding for an unpopular war in Iran. Another reconciliation package would risk further highlighting the divides within the GOP after Trump’s proposed amendments to the last reconciliation bill—funding for a 90,000-square-foot White House ballroom and his $1.8 billion “anti-weaponization” fund—led to Republican infighting before being dropped from the final package. Senator John Cornyn (R-Texas), unburdened after losing his primary challenge to a Trump-endorsed challenger earlier this month, said of another reconciliation bill, “It’s going to be an enormously heavy lift in this environment to get that done, particularly with just Republican votes.” In addition to the fiscal hawks who oppose reconciliation, Senators facing tough general election races worry that the reconciliation process would give Democrats an opportunity to offer amendments that would force them to take tough votes. Senate Majority Leader John Thune was noncommittal when asked about the prospects of another reconciliation vote, telling reporters, “We know we’ve got to do more for defense. The question is, ‘What would the Democrats be for?’ We’ll find out. One of the theories of the case is that Democrats are not going to be willing to support additional funding for national security.”

Trump also wants his Safeguard American Voter Eligibility (SAVE America) Act, which would require people to show documented proof of citizenship when registering to vote, to be included in the next reconciliation bill, though the measure failed to gain a simple majority when it was offered as an amendment to the last reconciliation bill. Senator Mitch McConnell, the former Senate leader, offered his thoughts at an Air Force appropriations hearing: “I think it’s safe to conclude there will not be another reconciliation bill. So it’s really not an option.” The Appropriations Committee Chair, Senator Susan Collins, facing a challenging election, concurred, saying, “I agree with that assessment.”

Farewell to the great historian Gordon Wood. Wood’s books made the Founding Fathers—and the entire American Revolution—come alive for me.

These works were a big part of a semester in law school studying the time period and, more specifically, the actual fight within the states to ratify the Constitution.

 -Jack O’Donnell