Big Bill Burnout

DC Voting Grind, Mamdani Rallies, Game On for Governor

Author

Jack O’Donnell
July 07, 2025

Good morning from Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.

249 years ago—tomorrow—Colonel John Nixon addressed a crowd in the State House Yard, reading the bold declaration passed only days earlier by the twelve colonies (New York had abstained).

Meanwhile, in New York City, the mayoral race continues to play out, beginning with official results from the Democratic Primary as ranked-choice voting results were released. Those results solidified Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani’s resounding victory. Mamdani officially prevailed on the third ballot, defeating former Governor Andrew Cuomo by over 12 points! In a statement, Mamdani declared, “Last Tuesday, Democrats spoke in a clear voice, delivering a mandate for an affordable city, a politics of the future, and a leader unafraid to fight back against rising authoritarianism. I am humbled by the support of more than 545,000 New Yorkers who voted for our campaign and am excited to expand this coalition even further as we defeat Eric Adams and win a city government that puts working people first.”

New York Democrats have been lining up behind Mamdani. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, one of the most prominent New York Democrats to support Mamdani’s campaign before votes were cast, wrote, “Congratulations, @ZohranMamdani! Your dedication to an affordable, welcoming, and safe New York City where working families can have a shot has inspired people across the city. Billionaires and lobbyists poured millions against you and our public finance system. And you won.” Attorney General Letitia James, another early supporter, posted, “His was a campaign powered by the people, and the people made their voices heard. New Yorkers are ready for a city we can all afford. Now it is time to bring our city together and win!” Rep. Jerry Nadler, the dean of New York’s congressional delegation, endorsed Mamdani, as did many in labor, the Hotel and Gaming Trades Council, 32BJ SEIU, and the Central Labor Council.

Mamdani Heads to Harlem After Stunning New York City Primary Results

The campaign continues to solidify establishment support with Mamdani making his first official general election campaign stop at the Rev. Al Sharpton’s National Action Network Harlem headquarters. Joined by filmmaker Spike Lee, he delivered a speech focused on economic justice and met afterward with Black clergy leaders in what Sharpton called a “frank and candid conversation.” In addition to his planned sit-down with the business community that we mentioned last week, the Democratic nominee is scheduled to sit down with House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and both of New York’s United States Senators.

One Democrat who is not waiting to get on the bandwagon: Lt. Governor Antonio Delgado, who endorsed Mamdani—after Primary Day—as the LG gears up for a primary race of his own, claiming Mamdani’s victory as “confirmation” of his own candidacy. Delgado offered: “A big reason why I’m challenging the governor is because I believe the status quo is broken, because I believe the way in which it’s currently being managed and has been managed is not about changing anything. It’s not about bold ideas, it’s not about transformational ideas, it is merely about protecting entrenched systems of power that reinforce economic inequalities.” It is worth watching how committed Delgado is—or will be—to a policy platform that matches Mamdani's or that can earn the support of the Working Families Party and Democratic Socialists of America.

The results and continued developments in Washington had the opposite effect on Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-NY), who had been teasing a gubernatorial run as a moderate alternative to Hochul. Last week’s results changed that calculus. “I’m unlikely to run for governor,” Torres said on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” program. “Like the assault that we’ve seen on the social safety in the Bronx is so unprecedented, so overwhelming that I’m going to keep my focus on Washington, D.C.” Torres’s district is one of the most reliant on Medicaid in the nation. 

Hochul, meanwhile, has been looking for the middle ground between supporting the nominee popular with Democratic voters, but an anathema to many moderates and all conservatives. Last week, she called out President Donald Trump and Senator Kristin Gillibrand for their treatment of Mamdani. Specifically regarding Gillibrand’s comments, Hochul said, “No one should be subjected to any comments that slur their ethnicity, their religious beliefs, and we condemn that anywhere it rears its head in the state of New York.” Nevertheless, Hochul declined to endorse Mamdani, saying instead, "Obviously, there are areas of difference in our positions, but I also think we need to have those conversations. But in the meantime, I truly am not focused on the politics.” It is a tightrope.

That delicate dance is also evident in a new Siena College poll. Just under a year out from the primary election, the poll shows that Democratic voters favor Hochul (49%) over both Delgado (18%) and Torres (10%). The poll also found that Hochul maintains a substantial margin in the general election, leading Rep. Elise Stefanik 47-24%, Rep. Mike Lawler 44-24%, and Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman 44-19%. Hochul supporters will be quick to trumpet her strong standing in the head-to-head polling, but opponents have pointed out that she does not hit the “magic number” of 50% support. Both positions have plenty of validity, but any politician would rather be in Hochul’s position. That will also be reinforced next week when we see fundraising numbers from the candidates.

If the race for NY governor were held today, which candidate would you support? Take our poll below!

On the Republican side, neither Stefanik nor Lawler has officially declared themselves a candidate, but both have been running shadow campaigns for months. The latest polling shows Stefanik with a 17-point lead over Lawler among GOP primary voters with much stronger name recognition than her colleague from Westchester. Another important consideration is that Republicans will feel much more confident about winning Lawler’s very purple district with him on the ballot, while almost any credible Republican can hold Stefanik’s very red district.

Speaking of Stefanik, she joined Congressman Nick Langworthy (R-NY) for an event in West Seneca last week where she said, “It’s not a question of if—it’s a question of when I announce, at the time and place of my choosing. So I want to ask you all today to join us in this effort to save New York State once and for all—and fire Kathy Hochul in 2026, starting right here in Erie County.” Langworthy reiterated the importance of a strong GOP showing, saying Erie County will be “ground zero” if Republicans are to win statewide next year. Stefanik will be looking to improve on Republican candidate Lee Zeldin’s 2022 performance, which was better than expected, where he came within 6 points of becoming New York’s first Republican governor since George Pataki. Stefanik and Langworthy have not always seen eye to eye, so this joint appearance was a big deal and a sign of how strong Republican Party unity may be heading into 2026.

In Washington, D.C., Republican leadership—and President Trump—are quite pleased having passed their “Big Beautiful Bill,” though it was a long, winding road.

The Senate pulled an all-nighter last week to advance the bill out of the Upper Chamber and send it back to the House for final passage. The 50-50 vote required Vice President J.D. Vance to break the tie after Republican Sens. Susan Collins of Maine, Rand Paul of Kentucky, and Thom Tillis of North Carolina joined Democrats in voting no. Shortly after his no vote, Tillis announced he would not seek reelection next year. Tillis has been the loudest voice in warning about political problems with the bill.

For Senate Majority Leader John Thune, getting the bill across the finish line meant overcoming the challenge of the Senate’s strict reconciliation rules. To win over Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, one of the last remaining holdouts, Thune tried to lessen the impact of Medicaid cuts to “noncontiguous states,” but the Senate parliamentarian ruled that any carve-out would run afoul of the reconciliation rules. In the end, Murkowski voted for the bill after winning concessions on clean energy tax credits for her state, a delay in cuts to food assistance, and increased revenues for Alaska from oil and gas drilling leases. After her vote, Murkowski said, “I held my head up and made sure that the people of Alaska are not forgotten in this, but I think that there is more that needs to be done, and I'm not done.” Murkowski hoped both chambers would go to the conference to continue to work on the specifics of the legislation rather than accept the Senate version, but House Speaker Mike Johnson had other plans. 

Johnson’s job was made somewhat easier by the Senate including the new $40,000 cap on state and local tax (SALT) deduction in the tax bill. The increased cap was a major sticking point for a handful of GOP House members from blue states disproportionately affected by the current $10,000 cap, though the current version also limits who can actually benefit from this new threshold.

The Senate went back and forth, but ultimately struck a ban on state-specific AI regulation, a ban poised to create problems in the House. The original proposal, which would have placed a 10-year ban on state regulatory action over AI, was met with public, bipartisan rebuke from governors and other state officials not keen to cede their authority to the federal government. 

Here's What's in the Senate's Version of the 'Big, Beautiful Bill'

The legislation for Trump's agenda on taxes, health care, immigration, energy, and more would add $3.3 trillion to the deficit over a decade, according to the Congressional Budget Office.

Despite the softening on SALT and AI regulation, the Senate version enacts deeper cuts to Medicaid and still hikes the debt limit by $5 trillion, $1 trillion higher than the House proposal. That led many GOP House members, both moderates concerned about the cuts to services and fiscal hawks concerned about the deficit, to threaten to withhold their vote unless the bill was opened up for amendments, which would have likely caused them to miss Trump’s self-imposed July 4th deadline. Trump summoned many of the holdouts to the White House on Wednesday, where, to the surprise of no one, they caved. Majority Leader Steve Scalise offered, “It became clear from the president’s meeting at the White House to further conversations later that, for all the back and forth, you know, the bill’s closed, there’s going to be no more amendments to the bill.” To sweeten the pot for hardline conservatives, Trump assured them he would strictly enforce new solar and wind tax credit rules rather than following the Senate blueprint that calls for a gradual phase-out. Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.), a member of the House Freedom Caucus, said, “What he’s going to do is use his powers as chief executive to make sure that the companies that apply for solar credits, as an example, he’s going to make sure that they’re doing what they say when they say they’ve started construction.” 

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY), lacking any real leverage, did what he could to delay passage and ended up speaking for 8 hours and 44 minutes, passing the record set in 2021 by former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.). In the end, the House passed the bill Thursday afternoon, with Trump signing it into law at the White House on Friday, saying, "It includes the largest tax cut in American history, the largest spending cut $1.7 trillion. And yet you won't even notice it. Just waste, fraud and abuse in American history."

What's in the tax and spending bill that Trump has signed into law?

Democrats, furious over the bill’s passage, launched blistering attacks, offering a glimpse into the party’s likely playbook for taking on Republicans in the upcoming midterms. “While the GOP continues to cash their billionaire donors’ checks, their constituents will starve, lose critical medical care, lose their jobs—and yes, some will die as a result of this bill,” said Ken Martin, the Democratic National Committee chair. “Democrats are mobilizing and will fight back to make sure everybody knows exactly who is responsible for one of the worst bills in our nation’s history.”

Farewell to Diogo Jota.

Anyone even tangentially following the sport had to be touched by the outpouring of support. I loved this line from the Athletic, which tries to explain why he was more than “just a footballer:”

Not Jota. He channeled the energy of Liverpool’s famously febrile home crowd, just as he had at Wolves.

He understood Liverpool as a city—a noisy, tough, and raw place where football matters more than almost anything else. But he also played the game with enjoyment, a relentless work ethic, and a drive and hunger to be the best player he could be.

We have been watching this on repeat. Fair play to Liverpool, who will retire Jota’s #20 and continue to pay out his contract to support Jota’s wife and children, and to Kylian Mbappé, who dedicated his game-winning goal yesterday to Jota.

Finally. . .

This is for fans of the Cracker Barrel, Old Country Store chain.

If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it!

TODAY: Join Jack for an in-depth discussion on two pivotal pieces of legislation reshaping the consumer protection and data privacy landscape in New York: the NY FAIR Act and the TED Bill.

Clark Hill Member Myriah Jaworski, Esq. and Jack O’Donnell of O’Donnell & Associates will explore how these laws aim to enhance transparency, accountability, and consumer rights in the digital age. Register here!

 Listen on your favorite platform!

Jack dives into the Primary Election results rattling the political landscape in our Monday Morning Minute:

🎙️How Zohran Mamdani won the NYC mayoral primary

🎙️Mayor Adams’ impact on the race in November

🎙️Why is the business community concerned over Mamdani?

🎙️Do clothes make the candidate?

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If the race for NY governor were held today, which candidate would you support?

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Results of the Last Poll

Do you support Governor Hochul's directive to build a new nuclear power plant in Upstate New York?

On the OD&A Bookshelf. . . Beach Edition!

Beach read: I just finished Careless People by Sarah Wynn-Williams, the former director of public policy at Facebook, who gives a critical account of the internal culture and decision-making practices during her time at the social media service.

Summer fun: I love New York State in the summer! My extended family has taken annual trips to the Adirondacks for as long as I can remember. We hike, canoe, golf, and go boating!

This Day in History

July 7, 1797:

The first impeachment of a U.S. Senator after the House of Representatives votes to charge Senator William Blount of Tennessee with treason and conspiring with the British.

However, this was not the end of his political career.

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