What's Next?

Good morning from Washington, D.C. where for the first time since 1968, an incumbent president has chosen to forego reelection. President Joe Biden’s decision, while not a surprise, is nonetheless astounding. Until Biden’s bombshell social media post, the campaign had been defiant as the calls for Biden to drop out had grown louder, including twelve Congressional Members on Friday alone. 

In addition to those public calls were private entreaties from Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) who reportedly met with Biden at his Rehoboth Beach House in Delaware for a “blunt conversation” about withdrawing from the race and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) who also had a private chat. Both had remained publicly supportive, but the coordinated leak of those stories as well as press about concerns from former President Barack Obama and former Speaker Nancy Pelosi (coupled with public announcements from many of her closest allies) showed a concerted effort from the Democratic Establishment to force Biden to this decision.

There were other low points, including damaging video footage of Biden returning to Delaware for a COVID-induced break looking even older than his 81 years and leaked reports of a Biden call with members of the New Democrat Coalition, a group of nearly 100, mostly moderate Members, intended to shore up Biden’s support with Members of Congress who should be amongst his strongest supporters. The call did not go well. According to some of those in attendance, Biden was 30 minutes late, gave “rambling responses”, and got into a heated exchange over foreign policy with former Army Ranger and current Rep. Jason Crow (D-CO) before Biden aides abruptly ended the call with multiple Members waiting to be heard, so Biden could get to Mass.

Still, many observers thought Biden remained a strong candidate while others feared the potential chaos of changing horses mid-stream.

Either way, Biden has had enough. The announcement was a surprise to most of his staff at the White House and the campaign who were laboring under the impression it was full speed ahead. There is an all-staff White House call this morning as well as a second call with all Executive Branch appointees later today.

There will be time to assess his legacy—a record of legislative accomplishment and leadership to be admired—but now is only to ask what’s next? The short answer is Kamala Harris.  

Biden endorsed her as his successor as did Democrats across the nation and here in New York including Governor Kathy Hochul. Three big questions remain:

1) Who will she select as her running mate? 

2) Will there be ballot access problems? 

3) Will there be problems at the Convention from famously unruly Democrats who will be asked to nominate a candidate who has not received a single primary vote?

One question that is already answered is about grassroots enthusiasm; the Harris campaign raised over $50 million last night from small donors on Act Blue! Impressive. 

More to come.

One convention that was not unruly was the 2024 Republican National Convention in Milwaukee last week which was a further display—if any evidence was necessary—that former President Donald Trump’s iron grip on the party continues to tighten. While he has long enjoyed the support of the Republican base and rank-and-file elected officials, Trump and his team have made a much more concerted effort to control the inner workings of the national GOP and the official party platform. Once Republican delegates arrived at the first meeting to iron out the party’s platform for November, their phones were taken and placed in magnetically sealed pouches. They were then given a draft platform and told, “This is something that ultimately you’ll pass. You’ll pass it quickly.” 

The new document—which is less than half the size of the original platform and tones down the language around politically fraught issues for the GOP including abortion and marriage equality—shows the desire of the Trump campaign to turn their attention to more moderate, undecided voters. The new platform nixed a provision about reducing the national debt, seemingly conceding that the call for fiscal responsibility is incompatible with the $8 billion that was added to the debt during Trump’s presidency. The platform also removed rigid language around abortion exceptions and removed a measure concerning gay conversion therapy. When asked about Trump’s role in forming a new platform, top campaign advisor Chris LaCivita offered, "Donald Trump has put the imprint, quite frankly, that he should have had in 2016 and 2020 on the party as a whole in 2024.”  In sum, Trump’s hold on the GOP, once tenuous and fraught, is so complete that he can pivot and look to attract new voters. It is impressive. 

The bigger news out of Milwaukee was Trump’s selection of Ohio Republican Senator J.D. Vance as his running mate and potential Vice President. Vance, elected to the Senate in 2022, is a Yale law school graduate and former Marine who gained national notoriety for his book, Hillbilly Elegy, which highlights his struggles growing up in Appalachia and the broader issues facing the rural poor.

Vance was highly critical of Trump in 2016, even calling him “America’s Hitler” before reinventing himself into one of the former President’s most ardent supporters. Given that Vance is in lockstep with Trump on nearly every issue, the pick does little to expand Trump’s chances in November the way a more moderate VP pick may have, but helps solidify the Trump hold and influence on the party past the 2024 election. The selection is a clear indication that Trump sees the 39-year-old Vance as one of the future leaders of the MAGA movement. 

Former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis—both former Trump critics themselves—also changed their tune at the RNC. Haley, who left the door open to not supporting Trump when she dropped out of the Republican primary, removed all doubt last week when she announced, “I’ll start by making one thing perfectly clear, Donald Trump has my strong endorsement, period.” DeSantis was equally laudatory, telling the crowd, “Let’s make the 45th President of the United States the 47th President of the United States.” 

The week-long convention went largely as planned for the GOP, with the only notable episode of infighting coming courtesy of former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fl.). Worth a watch here.

Another Democrat who had a bad week was New Jersey Senator Bob Menendez who was convicted in a wide-ranging corruption scandal involving cash and luxury gifts by agents of the Egyptian government in exchange for undue access and influence over Menendez, then chair of the powerful Senate Foreign Relations Committee. Menendez, who resisted initial calls to step down when he was charged, has now said he plans to resign. 

In New York City, Mayor Eric Adams and his campaign are celebrating a strong fundraising cycle as shown by his most recent filing with the New York City Campaign Finance Board (CFB). The last incumbent mayor with a real challenge was Ed Koch in 1989 and while Adams maintains a strong cash advantage over his potential challengers, they are slowly, but steadily raising enough money to mount a serious campaign. Adams raised $1.1 million from 1,472 donors over the last six months, bringing his cash on hand to $3 million. Adams has also qualified for $4.1 million in matching public funds, meaning his campaign is nearing the $7.3 million primary spending limit set by the CFB. A spokesperson for Adams’ campaign offered, “I know the mayor agrees that this filing is history and the campaign team will continue tomorrow morning planning our final push, so that we will be in a position to finish all campaign fundraising by October, a full eight months ahead of the June primary.”

Despite the herculean task of unseating an incumbent and the massive cash disadvantage, three potential challengers are making a push to at least compete with Adams.  

• Former New York City Comptroller Scott Stringer, who ran against Adams in 2021, raised $425,000 from 2,113 donors and would qualify for $1.7 million in public matching funds if he hits the required donor threshold by October.  

• State Senator Zellnor Myrie raised $326,000 from 1,838 donors and would qualify for $1 million in matching public funds if he hits October’s thresholds. 

• Current New York City Comptroller Brad Lander raised $198,000 from 1,167 donors during this reporting period. He has, however, been fundraising for nearly two years which will qualify him for $2.4 million in matching funds.  

The candidates, especially Stringer, are confident that the availability of public matching funds, which match donations under $250 at eight to one, will allow them to close the gap. Stringer offered, “The beauty about the campaign finance system is it equalizes the campaign. As we go forward, (Adams) is already maxed out. Every filing, I’m going to get closer and closer until we hit $8 million. It’ll just take us a few months longer.” Adams, who is still under federal investigation for his 2021 campaign, still enjoys a prominent list of donors including New England Patriots owner Robert Kraft, New York Rangers and Knicks owner James Dolan, and education activist Meryl Tisch. 

Governor Kathy Hochul also reported another record haul as she eyes reelection in 2026. Hochul raised $5.9 million in the last six months, bringing her total fundraising since 2023 to $16.8 million. Hochul’s campaign has said part of the fundraising push is to boost other candidates down ballot, offering in a statement, “As leader of the New York State Democratic Party, Governor Hochul is making unprecedented investments in the Party with a focus on flipping the House in 2024 and building an operation that will support Democrats for years to come.”

In Albany, New York State Comptroller Tom DiNapoli released a report showing that first quarter State tax receipts were slightly higher than anticipated which will be welcome news for lawmakers as they look towards next year’s State budget. State tax receipts were $594 million higher than originally projected by the Division of Budget (DOB), and total collections were $2.2 billion higher than those through June 2023. DiNapoli expressed a positive fiscal outlook, but warned lawmakers about the potential troubles that lie ahead saying, “Economic growth is fueling higher tax collections. Record financial market levels, near full employment recovery, and easing inflation have all benefitted the State’s economy. While the State budget is currently on-track, any sudden shock can quickly reverse this position.” 

And finally, New York recently ranked second on an interesting top 5 list. 

-Jack O’Donnell

Clients in the News

If the election were held today, who has your vote for U.S. President?

This Day in History

July 22, 1937: U.S. Senate rejects FDR's proposal to enlarge the Supreme Court. How did FDR lose his brief war on the Supreme Court?

News

Biden Seriously Considering Proposals on Supreme Court Term Limits, Ethics Code

Democratic Donors Begin Mobilizing to Raise Money for Kamala Harris If She’s the Nominee

Democratic Donors Funding an Effort to Vet Potential VP Candidates

Details of Trump Shooting Security Breakdown Start to Emerge

Leaked Memo Shows J.D. Vance’s Anti-Woke Ideology on Foreign Affairs

Burgos Abruptly Announces Resignation, Effective Immediately

School Board VP Beatriz LeBron to be Charged for Allegedly Threatening Lawmaker

Man Named Literally Anybody Else Running for President

Jimmy Buffett’s Palm Beach, Florida, Homes Up for Sale

Worth a Read

As GOP Meets, Wisconsin Is in Play

How Trump Wrested Back Complete Control of the GOP

Who Is in Donald Trump’s Inner Circle? These Are His Closest Advisers

Bernie Sanders Wants Joe Biden to Stay in the Race

J.D. Vance Left His Venmo Public. Here’s What It Shows

What Does 2026 Hold for Kathy Hochul?

Restoration Done Right in Detroit

Underground Moon Cave Big Enough to Become Lunar Base, Say Scientists

America Flunked Its Test Run For the World Cup—Again

JD Vance Could Become First VP with Facial Hair in Decades