Dark Cloud

Trump Shooting Aftershocks, Biden's NY Troubles, DC Funding Fights

Author

Jack O’Donnell
July 15, 2024

Good morning from Milwaukee, Wisconsin where the 2024 Republican National Convention gets underway this morning under a dark cloud. Saturday night’s attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump is the latest manifestation of a political culture consumed by toxicity, vile rhetoric, and outright hate. Combined with easy access to guns, that is a lethal mix and at least one person simply participating in the political process is dead. Our political leaders—and especially the rank and file Democrats and Republicans—have a real opportunity to dial the temperature down after this, but I expect there will be more talk and very little actual action. I hope I’m wrong.

How this shooting will play out in a campaign with five months left to go remains to be seen. Both candidates are so well known—both by their supporters and the rest of the country—that much is determined and most Americans are pretty well set with their preferences. Will this change anything? Will it move the small amount of undecided voters? One thing is for sure, Donald Trump appeared very presidential—and strong—as he exhorted his followers to fight as Secret Service led him away from the stage.

Another opportunity to move opinion is in a national convention. Much of the focus has been on Biden himself and this will be an opportunity for Republicans to tell America what they stand for and offer plans and a platform, though as we have seen for a number of years, most of that plan and platform are simply Trump. 

Trump Teases his VP Pick Timing and Names 4 Finalists

The former president compared the vice presidential selection process to "The Apprentice," his reality show from the 2000s.

Barring any further circumstances, the focus today will be on whom Trump selects as his running mate and potential Vice President. The betting odds are on Ohio Senator J.D. Vance, the author of Hillbilly Elegy, whose firebrand populism has appealed to many in Trump’s base. Vance has been a close ally of Donald Trump Jr., and the eldest son’s speaking slot immediately before the VP pick is seen as further evidence that it may be Vance. Senators Marco Rubio of Florida and Tim Scott of South Carolina appear to be on the list along with North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum. Stay tuned.

What impact will the shooting of former President Trump have on his campaign?

Watch as our Jack O’Donnell weighs in on News 4 Buffalo.

The Republican National Committee and virtually the entire Republican Party have coalesced around Trump as their nominee whereas President Biden continues to deal with open revolt among some of his rank and file Democratic colleagues. Many Democrats tamped down their calls for Biden to drop out of the race this week as he hosted over 30 world leaders in Washington for the 2024 NATO Summit, but the question lingered over this week’s events. That is, at least tamped down publicly. There is much more happening behind the scenes; Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer reportedly told colleagues privately that he was open to replacing Biden, only to later release a public statement that read in part, “As I have made clear repeatedly publicly and privately, I support President Biden and remain committed to ensuring Donald Trump is defeated in November.”

While Biden was participating in the NATO summit, he dispatched Campaign Chair Jen O’Malley Dillon and senior advisers Mike Donilon and Steve Ricchetti to make the case to Senate Democrats that he is the best candidate to beat Donald Trump and that the campaign still has multiple pathways to victory. Senator Michael Bennet (D-Colo.), who earlier this week said he believes Biden is on track to lose in November, offered of the meeting with Biden’s team, “Should have had it 10 days ago.” House and Senate Leadership have remained supportive of Biden… at least publicly. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) plainly said, “No” when asked if Biden will be a drag on Democratic candidates in House swing districts, and House Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi, whose word still carries immeasurable weight in Democratic circles, said in a statement, “Speaker Pelosi fully supports whatever President Biden decides to do. We must turn our attention to why this race is so important: Donald Trump would be a disaster for our country and our democracy.” Jeffries met with Biden on Thursday to voice the concerns of his Democratic colleagues, specifically those in key swing districts, where Jeffries said he "directly expressed the full breadth of insight, heartfelt perspectives and conclusions about the path forward that the Caucus has shared in our recent time together.” 

The Biden question has been incredibly divisive among Democrats, including in New York. Governor Hochul has remained steadfast in her support, saying after a meeting with Biden and fellow Democratic Governors earlier this month, “All of us said we pledged our support to him because the stakes could not be higher.” However, not everyone on Team Hochul feels the same way: Lieutenant Governor Antonio Delgado, in a rare public break with his boss, released a statement of his own this week calling on Biden to drop out of the race. The statement reads in part, “I have immense respect and admiration for (Biden’s) deep and abiding commitment to the American people and our founding democratic ideals. He can add to his legacy, showing his strength and grace, by ending his campaign and making room for a new leader.” Delgado did give Hochul a heads-up before releasing the statement, but she was still reportedly “furious.” (Hochul did deny that she was upset with Delgado over the statement.) Former Governor and Lt. Governor David Patterson indicated that Delgado’s advanced warning shows at least some respect for his boss offering, “If he had blindsided her, believe me, he’d be buried somewhere in the North Country right now.” 

Hudson Valley Rep. Pat Ryan, one of the most vulnerable Democratic incumbents, has also called on Biden to step down. “I’d be doing a grave disservice if I said he was the best candidate to serve this fall,” he said in a telephone interview. “For the good of our country, for my two young kids, I’m asking Joe Biden to step aside in the upcoming election and deliver on the promise to be a bridge to a new generation of leaders.” The public rebuke by both Delgado and Ryan comes on the heels of brutal polling for New York Democrats that shows Biden leading Trump by just 8 points, despite Democrats outnumbering Republicans 2-1 in the state. Rep. Jerry Nadler (D-NY), not himself in a competitive race this year, but a senior member of New York’s Congressional delegation, reportedly told his House colleagues on a call that Biden should step aside. Nadler later reversed course, saying publicly, “[Biden] has said he is going to remain in. He’s our candidate, and we’re all going to support him. At least, I hope we’re all going to support him.” 

In the midst of this maelstrom, there is also plenty of government business left to be done in New York State. Thanks to a count from Dan Clark at Capitol Confidential, we know that 805 bills passed both houses of the Legislature this year and that 611 of them are still awaiting action from the Executive Chamber. Democratic Senator Brad Hoylman-Sigal sponsored 42 bills that passed the Assembly and Senate, the most of any lawmakers. Hoylman-Sigal is the sponsor of the Grieving Families Act, high-profile legislation that would dramatically expand liability for wrongful death cases. The measure passed both Chambers for the third year in a row, but has so far been vetoed by Hochul. Keep an eye out for this and the other 610 bills that will be sent to Hochul at some point before December 31st.  Watching anything in particular?  Let us know, we can help.

There is lots to be done in Washington D.C., too. House lawmakers are working through markups of Fiscal Year 2025 appropriations bills ahead of the August recess. Many House Republicans were hoping to use the process to score quick political wins for the GOP before November, including a measure in the Commerce-Justice-Science funding bill that would have blocked the prosecution of 2024 presidential candidates before Election Day. The proposal ultimately failed in full committee, and some more moderate Republicans conveniently missed the vote, allowing Democrats to defeat the amendment by 1 vote.  

Key senators agree on spending levels for FY25.

The Senate will pursue a spending increase next year of about 3.4% for defense and 2.7% increase for nondefense programs, setting up a certain clash with the House, which is pursuing less spending in both categories.

On a broader level, Democrats and Republicans are still wrangling over spending totals, and whether increases will be commensurate among defense and non-defense programs. Rep. Rose DeLauro (D-Conn.), the top ranking Democrat on the House Appropriations Committee released a letter calling on her colleagues to, at the very least, honor the debt ceiling deal agreed to last summer that permits $786 billion—a 1% increase—in non-defense spending. In the letter, DeLauro says, “To those who believe we need more on the defense side—a sentiment espoused by many in the House Republican conference—I will say again: Every additional dollar for defense will be matched by a dollar for critical non-defense investments in American families.” DeLauro has also taken issue with Republicans for rejecting billions of dollars contained in the Interior-Environment and Energy-Water appropriations bills, and for “removing workplace training and protections.” 

Aside from the slate of annual spending bills, Congress has until the end of September to pass important agricultural legislation, known as the “Farm Bill” that must be reauthorized roughly every five years. The $1.5 trillion measure remains stalled over disagreements over whether to send aid to food producers or food consumers. Republicans have proposed a $50 billion plan to provide guaranteed minimum prices for 14 select crops, but want to pay for it by repealing a 2018 law that permits an expansion of the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP). Senator Cory Booker (D-NJ) said, “[It’s] a trade-off that none of us Democrats are willing to make” and indicated he would be open to addressing both issues outside of the Farm Bill. 

Finally…

An Ohio man was caught red-handed in leopard print pajamas with hamsters down his pants. The good news? The hamsters were not hurt. [Read more.]

 

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2024 #OneWorld Soccer Tournament of WNY

OD&A was proud to join Bridges from Borders (BFB) and the Buffalo Maendeleo Soccer Club, as well as Senator Sean Ryan and Assemblyman Jonathan Rivera for a news conference at Dobson Field in Buffalo to kick off the 2024 #OneWorld Soccer Tournament of WNY, featuring teams from a range of immigrant and refugee communities across Buffalo. The event unites and celebrates these different cultures, helping to break down barriers and bridge the gaps through friendly competition and the universal sport of soccer. 

Thank you to our media partners who highlighted this worthy event:

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