Hail to the Chief

Special Election Results, Redistricting, DC Dysfunction

Author

Jack O’Donnell
February 19, 2024

Good morning and Happy Presidents Day from Hyde Park, the home of the Franklin D. Roosevelt Presidential Library and Museum.  Always worth a visit.  

Tuesday’s Special Election for Congress in NY-03 was a major victory for Democrat Tom Suozzi over Republican Mazi Pilip.  The Long Island-based seat was vacant following the expulsion of fraudster and cameo star Rep. George Santos. The polling had the contest as a toss-up but in the end, it was not particularly close— Suozzi defeated Pilip by about 8 percentage points, or 13,109 votes. Roughly 175,000 voters braved the winter conditions to cast their ballot, down nearly 40% compared to the 2022 midterm elections. One GOP Super PAC, the Congressional Leadership Fund, even hired a plow service to clear the streets around key Republican precincts to increase voter turnout. 

Our Jack O’Donnell is on the line!

He joins the morning team at WBEN to talk about this year’s busy political calendar, featuring several special elections. Listen here.

While GOP apathy due to Santos’ antics could be a factor, the result continues the trend of Republicans underperforming in Special Elections in the post-Roe era. Suozzi offered himself as a bi-partisan deal maker and successfully undercut the GOP attacks on immigration, openly criticizing the Biden administration’s handling of the border throughout the campaign, while also attacking Republicans for scuttling the Senate’s bipartisan border deal.

Democrats see New York election win as model for tackling immigration issue.

National Democrats believe the election is a harbinger of what is to come in 2024, including Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer who offered, “The same negativity that voters had towards Donald Trump and people who follow him on their refusing to enact bipartisan legislation on the border, on their refusing to protect a woman’s right to choose, on their refusing to get the guns off the streets are going to hurt Donald Trump not just in the 3rd District, but across America.” Democrats also successfully targeted Asian-American voters as Suozzi tempered his tough border talk with an equal focus on a path to citizenship and a strong campaign assist from Congress Member Grace Meng of the neighboring district.  It worked and Suozzi won the Queens part of the district by more than 20%, a big part of his margin of victory.

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“The same negativity that voters had towards Donald Trump and people who follow him on their refusing to enact bipartisan legislation on the border, on their refusing to protect a woman’s right to choose, on their refusing to get the guns off the streets are going to hurt Donald Trump not just in the 3rd District, but across America.”

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer

The victory marks a return to Washington for Suozzi, having served 3 terms in Congress before an unsuccessful run for governor in 2022. Suozzi’s win is a welcome development for House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and House Democrats who have successfully shrunk the GOP’s already razor-thin majority. The makeup of the House now sits as 213 Democrats and 219 Republicans, with one Democratic and two GOP vacancies. 

Independent Redistricting Commission

Suozzi will have to run again in November to win a full term of his own in an election that will feature a new Congressional map. The Independent Redistricting Commission officially released their draft map of new Congressional Districts after a years-long legal fight over the 2020 maps restarted the process. Most districts, including NY-03, have marginal differences, but remain largely unchanged. The biggest differences between the current map and the proposed map are in Central New York where the 22nd District, currently represented by freshman Republican Brandon Williams, would stretch into Cortland County and Cayuga County, and include the City of Auburn.

With the changes to NY22, the Cook Political Report has changed their rating from ‘toss-up’ to ‘lean Democrat.’ There were also changes in the 18th and 19th Congressional Districts, both to the benefit of incumbents: NY18, currently represented by Democrat Pat Ryan, would become slightly more Democratic-leaning while the changes to NY19, currently represented by Republican Marc Molinaro, would shift the district to the right. 

The fate of the proposed map now rests in the hands of the Democratic-controlled State Legislature. They will either vote to adopt the map or choose to come up with their own, which is what prompted the legal fights in 2020. Before drawing their own maps, though, they would need to give the IRC a second chance and vote down those maps, as well. Lawmakers are not in session this week, meaning any potential vote would not happen until at least February 26th. 

IRC releases new congressional maps with few changes. The state Legislature will now vote on whether to accept the new maps or reject them and draw their own.

Republicans seem content with the IRC proposal as it leaves many of the districts they flipped in 2022 unchanged. Democrats, on the other hand, have seemed lukewarm about the proposal. Senate Majority Leader Andrea-Stewart Cousins said, “We plan to discuss and decide our subsequent actions soon, taking into account the election cycle calendar.” One Democratic lawmaker has publicly come out against the maps. Senator James Skoufis of Orange County said, “These maps are a disgrace and ought to be rejected by the Legislature. In fact, the most meaningful edit to the map sacrifices Orange County at the altar of partisanship, splitting the currently-unified county into two Congressional Districts in an attempt to protect one incumbent from each party.”

National Democrats will certainly be paying attention to what happens in New York given that Suozzi’s win means they only need to flip four seats in November to regain control of the House. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries shared his thoughts on the IRC-proposed maps, all but calling on state Democrats to reject them. In a statement, Jeffries said, “There is reason to be concerned with the failure of the IRC to address many of the flaws in the current map drawn by an unelected, out-of-town special master in 2022.” 

Which issues will dominate the 2024 Legislative Sessions from D.C. to Albany?

Jack lays it out in our annual Legislative Preview.

Read it here.

In Washington, D.C., the House and Senate have just two days when they are both scheduled to be in session before the first of two government shutdown deadlines on March 1st. The government is operating under the third Continuing Resolution (CR) of this fiscal year as House Republicans have refused to get behind appropriations bills that do not drastically reduce spending. One GOP aide cast doubt that the Chamber would be able to advance the appropriations bills needed before March 1st saying, “We know the deadline is in less than a month, but we’re governing like the deadline is years away. It’s the same self-inflicted wound over and over again. Standard operating procedure for this Congress.” If Congress does not come to an agreement on a spending package and fails to adopt another CR before March 1st, a partial government shutdown will follow. If the inaction continued, the full federal government would shut down on March 8th. To add another wrinkle, President Biden is scheduled to travel to Capitol Hill on March 7th for his State of the Union address.  

If Congress does not come to an agreement on a spending package and fails to adopt another CR before March 1st, a partial government shutdown will follow. If the inaction continued, the full federal government would shut down on March 8th.

One thing that did get done, after last week’s miss, was the House’s impeachment of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas. The GOP-led effort passed the House by a single vote, 214-213, and is the first impeachment of a Cabinet secretary in nearly 150 years. The impeachment articles charged Mayorkas with “willfully and systematically” failing to enforce immigration policy and cited his alleged refusal to detain migrants as grounds for impeachment. Democrats and the Biden Administration have pushed back, arguing that the charges against Mayorkas do not even come close to the high threshold for impeachment, with Department of Homeland Security spokesperson Mia Ehrenberg offering, “Without a shred of evidence or legitimate Constitutional grounds, and despite bipartisan opposition, House Republicans have falsely smeared a dedicated public servant who has spent more than 20 years enforcing our laws and serving our country.” and accused Republicans of “trampling on the Constitution for political gain rather than working to solve the serious challenges at our border.” 

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“Without a shred of evidence or legitimate Constitutional grounds, and despite bipartisan opposition, House Republicans have falsely smeared a dedicated public servant who has spent more than 20 years enforcing our laws and serving our country.”

Department of Homeland Security Spokesperson Mia Ehrenberg

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer called the impeachment “a new low” for Republicans, but indicated that he will allow the House to present their case in a Senate trial, which is all but certain to fail. Sixty votes are needed in the Senate in order to remove Mayorkas from office and even some Republican Senators have expressed skepticism. Senator Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) said the impeachment was “dead on arrival” and called it “the worst, dumbest exercise and use of time.” 

Interested in impeachment?

Do you want to learn more?

Have you heard the story of the first and (so far only) New York Governor to be impeached?

Finally…

It is not just humans who can end up on the No-Fly List due to unruly behavior in the air.

Apple of Their Eye: A Trump and Stefanik Ticket has GOP in a New York State of Mind

Our Jack O’Donnell talks to reporter Haisten Willis of the Washington Examiner about a potential Trump/Stefanik ticket. [Read more.]

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Shirley Anita St. Hill Chisholm was the first African American woman in Congress (1968).

Chisholm was also the first woman and African American to seek the nomination for President of the United States from one of the two major political parties (1972). [Read more.]

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Employee Spotlight

What do you do at OD&A?

As Director of Communications, I focus on helping both the firm and our clients raise their profile by showcasing their good work, generating interest in their mission, and creating stronger connections with the media and the public at large. I also manage the firm’s social media accounts, assist in the production of our newsletter, Monday Morning Memo, and produce, edit, and co-host our podcast, “From the Lobby with Jack O’Donnell.”

What do you like most about your work?

Using my strong media background to help clients understand the media, work with the media more effectively, and develop the best way to tell their story or handle a crisis. 

What are your proudest accomplishments at OD&A?

Our newsletter, Monday Morning Memo, won an Excalibur Award from the PRSA Buffalo Niagara. Through consistent and strategic efforts, our brand presence in the media and the firm’s audience growth rate on social media channels have increased substantially. I have also assisted numerous clients in gaining exposure, handling crises, and achieving goals by facilitating and strengthening connections with the media.

What is something you wish people knew about your job?

How the communications/PR field is evolving as the platforms to reach the public continue to expand. The growing digital distractions and reduced attention spans require more creativity than ever to keep the public engaged. 

What’s one thing most people don’t know about you?

The WNY community may remember I delivered the news each night as the primary co-anchor on Channel 7 Eyewitness News. Besides a long career in television news, I was also the first Public Information Officer for the Erie County District Attorney’s Office and forceful advocate for local businesses at the Amherst Chamber of Commerce. My husband and I are WNY natives, have two daughters, and two granddaughters.

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February 19, 1963: "The Feminine Mystique" by Betty Friedan, widely credited as the start of second-wave feminism, is published.

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