Eye on the Prize

Push for GOP Governor, Dems' Damning Polls, Congressional Budget Challenges

Author

Jack O’Donnell
February 10, 2025

Good morning from Albany, New York where the Joint Legislative Budget Committee hearings continue tomorrow at 9:30 a.m. with the Health hearing. Expect another long one.

Legislative hearings continue throughout February and are followed by the Senate and Assembly developing their respective One-House budget proposals. This will lead to negotiations on a final budget, with the goal of completing it by the end of the state fiscal year on March 31st. Tune in to the live stream of tomorrow's hearing and access details on all upcoming budget hearings here.

The Conservative Party and GOP elected officials are focused on electing a Republican governor in 2026 and are wasting no time in mapping out their strategy. GOP gubernatorial hopefuls gathered at the New York State Conservative Party Conference last week in Albany, workshopping messages and pitching their colleagues on their mission for a Republican-controlled New York. Rep. Mike Lawler (R-NY), Kathy Hochul’s chief antagonist and current Republican frontrunner, delivered the keynote speech where he insisted, “Voters want balance. They want common sense.”

Conservatives Invade Albany

Republican Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman echoed that message with his own geographical twist, saying, “It’s the suburbs where we can really generate a lot of votes—and all it takes is to be bold, have leadership skills.” While Lawler remains the betting favorite for the GOP nod, Blakeman successfully flipped Nassau County in 2021 and has emerged as one of former President Donald Trump’s closest allies in New York. Onondaga County Executive Ryan McMahon also addressed the conference, touting his role in attracting a $100 billion investment from Micron to outside of Syracuse, but still accused Hochul of being “more intentional in her efforts to support migrants, who are here illegally, than working-class New Yorkers.” Regardless of who the GOP nominee is, it is clear that Republicans have their sights set squarely on New York.

Recent polling, only a snapshot in time mind you, is nonetheless encouraging Republicans who sense an opportunity in New York’s political landscape. A recent Siena College poll found that Hochul has a negative 39-47% favorability rating and a net negative job approval rating of 44-48%—both largely unchanged from December’s poll. Hochul has never surpassed a 50% favorability rating and has not held a positive favorability rating since January 2023. However, several of her policy priorities are viewed more positively. Hochul’s plans for universal free school meals and an increased police presence on overnight subways in New York City are supported by every demographic group, as are the increased child tax credit and phone-free schools initiatives. If Hochul can negotiate buy-in from the legislature on these policies, voters say it would improve the lives of New Yorkers by a 42-26% margin. There is also overwhelming support—91% of Republicans, 86% of independents, and 69% of Democrats—for deporting illegal immigrants convicted of a crime.

Favorite Son? New Yorkers Like Trump More Than Dem Governor, Poll Finds

Residents of deep-blue New York view President Donald Trump more favorably than Democratic governor Kathy Hochul, who struggles with low approval ratings and bleak reelection prospects, according to a recent poll.

The poll also found that President Trump has reached his highest favorability rating in New York since December 2016 at 41%, with 48% of respondents agreeing that Trump will lead a "new golden age in America." The picture is equally bleak nationally for Democrats as the party continues to struggle to revamp and revive its plans and programs while reacting to Trump "flooding the zone" in Washington: a poll from Quinnipiac University shows 57% of registered voters have an unfavorable view of the Democratic Party compared to 45% with an unfavorable view of the Republican Party, the largest favorability margin that Republicans have had since Quinnipiac began asking about party favorability in 2008. A separate poll from New York Times/Ipsos found that voters believe the issues most important to the Democratic Party are abortion, LGBTQ rights, and climate change—none of which were among the top issues for the overall group of respondents.

N.Y. Democrats Introduce Bill Allowing Delay of Special Election

A delay would impact the anticipated race to replace Rep. Elise Stefanik in the 21st Congressional District if she is confirmed as UN ambassador.

None of that appears to have deterred New York Democrats from playing politics with the imminent vacancy in CD 21, currently held by soon-to-be United Nations Ambassador Elise Stefanik. Late Friday, Senate Majority Leader Andrea Stewart-Cousins and Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie introduced a bill titled "Relating to filling vacancies in elective offices," which sets procedures for when special elections may be consolidated with general elections. The bill—likely to be voted on later today—would give Hochul discretion to set the special election as late as November. Democrats have been consistent in saying the measure is about economics and turnout: “At a time when people need our government to work more efficiently, this legislation is a common-sense approach that saves taxpayer dollars while maximizing voter turnout,” Stewart-Cousins wrote in a statement. Republicans are not happy.

Meanwhile, Lieutenant Governor Antonio Delgado appears to be hedging his bets, taking the unprecedented step of refusing to endorse Governor Hochul for reelection. When asked, Delgado stated, “My focus right now isn’t on the election. My focus is on governing right now. That’s the focus.” This is not the first example of “independence” from Delgado. In July, he released a statement calling on former President Biden to drop out of the race at the same time Hochul was publicly supporting his reelection campaign. In the weeks after November’s reelection, Delgado penned an op-ed that some read as a thinly veiled attack on Hochul and “neoliberal” Democrats. There have been no public reprisals from Team Hochul in response to these incidents, but Delgado’s response to a question about his current relationship with Hochul was telling, with the Lt. Governor plainly offering, “We always have the ability to communicate with each other, whether those are difficult discussions or not, like we’ve always been able to communicate, and I appreciate that.” Delgado has not committed to running against Hochul, nor has he ruled out such a run, saying, “Whatever happens in the future right now, I think is too distant of a matter.”

In Washington, D.C., facing a new government funding deadline of March 14, negotiations have stalled, and despite GOP control of the White House and both Chambers of Congress, it is all the Democrats’ fault, according to Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson. The House had been moving forward with "one big beautiful bill" containing all of Trump’s policy priorities, arguing that their thin majority and fractious caucus only provides enough political capital for one bite of the apple. Johnson has yet to produce a draft bill text after missing multiple self-imposed deadlines, the most recent of which was this past Friday. With no bill text and no clear path forward in the House, Senator Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) unveiled his conference’s spending plan on Friday, opting for an approach that would see Trump’s domestic policy agenda divided into two bills. "It’s time for the Senate to move," Budget Committee Chair Graham declared.

Graham Unveils Budget Plan to Beef Up Border Security and Defense

The initial bill, which Senate Republicans argue could progress swiftly, proposes an increase in military spending by $150 billion and border security spending by $175 billion, with a subsequent bill addressing tax policy and spending cuts to follow. The Senate Armed Services Committee is expected to be responsible for determining the military spending, while the Senate Homeland Security and Judiciary Committees will address the border spending. Senate Republicans aim to hold a committee vote on it next week. Ways and Means Chair Jason Smith expressed dissatisfaction: "It’s rather unfortunate that he’s going to engage in a process that doesn’t achieve anything." 

GOP Hardliners Rebel Over Johnson’s Budget Plans

Conservative backlash has brought Speaker Mike Johnson’s budget plans to a halt.

The central dilemma for Congressional Republicans is the desire to enact Trump’s agenda while still maintaining some semblance of fiscal responsibility. Hardline Republicans would like to see drastic spending reductions, with leadership said to be looking for at least $1 trillion in cuts to offset the costs of Trump’s corporate and individual tax cuts, whereas moderate members are hesitant about cutting government programs that their constituents rely on. That conundrum is also playing out in the fight over the cap on state and local tax (SALT) deductions. Blue-state Republicans have been pushing for an increase in the $10,000 cap, even threatening to vote against any tax bill that does not address SALT. Trump has expressed a willingness in the past to lift the cap, but many in the House GOP are less than eager to add the associated costs to their already-bloated reconciliation bill. The result is that GOP leaders remain stalled on a plan. One compromise being floated includes a short-term tax-cut proposal, which would allow Republicans to contain some costs and satisfy some hard-liner demands. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent quickly rejected that, adamant that he wants permanent cuts, not the extension under discussion.

Both the House and Senate plan to begin holding hearings next week, setting up a showdown between the two chambers that will likely require Trump to decide the path forward. Republican senators had a private dinner with Trump at Mar-a-Lago on Friday, but we are still waiting for the outcome of that meeting.

N.Y. AG on Trump: 'We’re in the midst of a constitutional crisis.'

She discussed Elon Musk, transgender athlete bans, and potential investigations of her.

Despite some initial doubts and skepticism from Senate Republicans, all of Trump’s Cabinet nominees appear to be headed toward confirmation. Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Trump’s pick for Secretary of Health and Human Services, cleared the last remaining hurdle before a full floor vote last week when his nomination advanced through the Senate Finance Committee. Senator Bill Cassidy (R-La.), a doctor, was seen as bearish on Kennedy, telling him at one point, “The science is credible. Vaccines save lives. They are safe. They do not cause autism. There are multiple studies that show this,” before ultimately casting the deciding vote in Kennedy's favor.

Similarly, Tulsi Gabbard, nominated for Director of National Intelligence, got through the Senate Intelligence Committee despite concerns from Senator Todd Young (R-Ind.) and other national security hawks over Gabbard’s sympathy for the now-deposed Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad, and her past support of Pentagon leaker Edward Snowden. After private conversations with Gabbard, Trump, and Vice President J.D. Vance, (and a now-deleted tweet from Elon Musk calling him a “deep state puppet”), Young relented.

Finally…

Uncle O’Grimacey is back, delivering Shamrock Shakes from Ireland to McDonaldland after an unfortunate misunderstanding forced him into a 45-year exile.

—>Where’s the pushback so far?

—>Impact of Trump’s moves on the State’s bottom line

—>Congestion pricing dilemma

—>Jack’s favorite news link

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New to the NYS Legislature

Noah Burroughs, Democratic State Assembly Member for District 18, brings a lifelong dedication to education and community service to his new role representing Hempstead and surrounding communities in Nassau County. A proud Hempstead native, Noah’s journey has been shaped by the transformative power of education and a strong family legacy of civil rights advocacy.

Noah’s parents instilled in him the belief that education is the key to opportunity. His father, a staffer with the Southern Christian Leadership Conference during Martin Luther King Jr.'s leadership, shared inspiring stories of integrating communities in Georgia during the civil rights movement. These stories, coupled with his mother’s commitment to service, nurtured Noah’s sense of duty and his passion for advancing the rights of others.

After graduating from Hempstead High School, Noah pursued higher education and dedicated more than 20 years to serving Hempstead’s children as an educator. His work in the classroom reflects his unwavering commitment to ensuring that every child, regardless of their circumstances, has the tools to succeed. Recognized for his integrity, resilience, and compassion, Noah has become a tireless advocate for one of his community’s most vulnerable populations.

In 2021, Noah successfully ran for Village Trustee, where he worked alongside the mayor to implement policies that improved residents' quality of life. His accomplishments include revoking business licenses for establishments involved in illegal activities, increasing income limits for senior citizen tax exemptions, and enhancing police presence in senior housing properties. These initiatives reflect Noah’s ability to translate his vision for community improvement into tangible results.

Noah brings his dedication to public service, passion for education, and deep roots in Hempstead to Albany. As an Assembly Member, he is committed to addressing issues such as improving educational access, enhancing public safety, and ensuring economic opportunities for all. His leadership will be guided by the values that have defined his life: a belief in the power of community, the importance of education, and the drive to create a brighter future for every resident of Assembly District 18.

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This Day in History

February 10, 1986

The rock concert at Madison Square Garden in 1972 was part of a series by John and Yoko to spotlight various social issues. It turned out to be the last concert they performed together.

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