Casino Jackpot

Good morning from Buffalo, New York. 

The epic, titanic, heavyweight battle among the world’s largest gaming companies to obtain a casino license in New York City appears headed to a fairly predictable finish after the New York Gaming Facility Location Board recommended last week that billionaire New York Mets owner Steve Cohen and Hard Rock, Bally’s, and Resorts World all receive licenses to operate in the nation’s largest untapped casino market.

Four other high-profile plans failed to gain the necessary approval of local advisory boards earlier this year, and MGM abruptly pulled its bid in October, leaving these as the last three proposals standing. The final approval will wait until the end of December, when the New York State Gaming Commission will vote on the Location Board’s recommendations and can, at that point, formally issue the gaming licenses. Governor Kathy Hochul, who is counting on the expected $7 billion in gaming taxes and $5.9 billion in hotel and retail taxes to fund state budget priorities, said in a statement, “From the moment that three downstate casino licenses were authorized in the 2022 State Budget, I have been clear: any approved project must provide real benefits to its community and have sustainable economic plans… The three projects approved today promise to unlock billions in funding for the MTA and create tens of thousands of jobs.” 

Mets owner Steve Cohen partnered with Hard Rock to propose an $8.1 billion redevelopment project in Flushing, Queens, next to Citi Field that will see a casino, hotel, convention center, entertainment venue, and 25 acres of new park space. Cohen’s project, known as Metropolitan Park, is the most ambitious of the three proposals and will connect the Billie Jean King National Tennis Center to Citi Field and Flushing Bay. Bally Corporation’s $4 billion proposal in the Bronx includes a 250-foot-tall casino spanning three million square feet, as well as a 500-room luxury hotel, dining and entertainment venues, a 2,000-person event center, and meeting spaces. President Donald Trump is a tangential winner in the Bally’s proposal as the former owner of the adjacent golf course. Bally’s bought the lease from the Trump Organization in 2023 with the stipulation that the company would receive a $115 million payment if Bally’s was eventually granted a casino license. Resorts World Casino New York City, owned by Genting, was recommended for a license at Aqueduct racetrack in Jamaica, Queens. The development plan calls for the current racino to be transformed into a $5.6 billion integrated resort featuring a 500,000-square-foot casino. 

Also in New York City, Mayor Eric Adams and Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani met at Gracie Mansion last week, the first face-to-face meeting between the two since Mamdani’s victory last month. After the meeting, Mamdani expressed his desire to continue a number of the outgoing mayor’s initiatives, saying, “I’ve said time and again that I’ve appreciated the Mayor’s work on City of Yes. I also think that trash containerization has been a good step forward in the way in which we handle garbage across this city, and these are things New Yorkers deserve to have to be built on, as opposed to be discarded.” A spokesman for Adams struck a similar tune, saying in a statement, “Mayor Adams wanted to ensure the mayor-elect knows our team is here to help ensure a smooth transition so that he can hit the ground running on day one, so Mayor Adams took the opportunity to discuss some of the programs and initiatives he has felt have been successful over the last four years, as well as some of the potential issues the incoming mayor may face once in office.”

Conventional wisdom says Mamdani will become the 111th mayor when he is sworn in on January 1st, but how many mayors has New York City really had? 

Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) is running for statewide office in New York and, in the meantime, burnishing her independent fighting persona via a highly public fight with Republican Congressional leadership, this time calling out House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) and threatening to scuttle the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA). Stefanik was pushing for a measure to be included in the NDAA that would require Congress to be notified of counterintelligence probes into candidates for federal office, and when it fell out of negotiations, she was quick to accuse Johnson of being part of the “deep state” for his role in excluding the measure.

Johnson pushed back, telling reporters, “All of that is false. I don't exactly know why Elise won't just call me. I texted her yesterday. She's upset one of her provisions is not being made, I think, into the NDAA… As soon as I heard this yesterday, I was campaigning in Tennessee, and I wrote her and said, What are you talking about? This hasn't even made it to my level.” Stefanik then accused Johnson of lying and siding with Democrats, posting on Twitter, “Just more lies from the Speaker. And in true form, the Speaker texted me yesterday claiming he ‘knew nothing about it.’ Yeah right. This is his preferred tactic to tell Members when he gets caught torpedoing the Republican agenda.” Stefanik made other derogatory remarks, claimed Johnson would not be reelected as Speaker, and emphasized that President Trump really runs the GOP Conference.

Stefanik’s provision was eventually added to the NDAA, and she did tone down her remarks, but, nevertheless, the episode is emblematic of the larger struggle for Johnson to keep his conference united in the face of electoral storm clouds gathering over the midterms for House Republicans next year, as well as a wave of retirements. In the last two weeks alone, high-profile members Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) and Rep. Troy Nehls (R-Tx.) announced they will not be seeking reelection, joining the over 20 GOP members who have already announced they are bowing out of Congress. The resignations span the ideological spectrum on the right, from ultra-conservative members like Rep. Chip Roy of Texas to moderates like Rep. Don Bacon (Neb.). Many observers see the inaction that has become a hallmark of this Congress, as well as the threat of returning to the minority in 2027, as the impetus for the unusually high number of retirements. Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) offered, “They just have to do whatever Trump wants them to do. What fun is that, if you’re an adult? Most of my colleagues are successful people who worked really hard to get here, and then they find out you’re just a rubber stamp for the Speaker, who’s a rubber stamp for the president. I don’t blame them for running for another office or going back home.” Expect more retirements to come.

Tennessee held a Special Election last week to fill the Congressional seat previously held by Rep. Mark Green (R). Republican Matt Van Epps defeated Democrat Aftyn Behn, maintaining the GOP Congressional majority. A win is always a win, but in politics, there are lessons or hints in the margins, especially in special elections. Van Epps’ 9-point win marks a significant shift towards Democrats, given that Trump won the district by 22 points only 13 months ago. That is in keeping with the other House special elections this year, all of which featured strong Democratic performances. In the four previous specials, Democrats had posted similar improvements of 16 to 22 points compared to the 2024 presidential margin in those districts. These consistent gains by an opposition party in special elections have often preceded strong midterm election results. Furthermore, special elections are usually low-turnout affairs where the intense motivation of Democrat’s anti-Trump, professional-class base shows up and exceeds expectations, but in an additional concern for Republicans is that turnout was healthy: about 180,000 votes were cast, far more than in any of the previous congressional special elections this year and almost identical to the number for the 2022 midterm election in Tennessee’s 7th District.

Behn herself saw hope for Democrats in her loss, describing her performance as a bellwether for races around the country, saying, “It portends what will happen next year, when you have Republicans that are in more competitive seats, struggling with candidates that look a lot like me. And for me, that’s a really exciting moment.” Speaker Johnson traveled to Tennessee in the final days of the race to campaign for Van Epps, a former helicopter pilot, and Trump called into a tele-rally to offer his support for the GOP nominee. The House GOP will have a 220-213 majority after Van Epps is sworn in, but Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene’s looming departure, as well as special elections to come early next year in New Jersey and Texas, will likely result in Democratic gains. 

That said, there were warning signs for Democrats in Tennessee, as well. Coming within a 9-point margin in such a Trump District is something that will—and should—encourage Democrats. However, primaries matter, and Democrats nominated the furthest-left candidate and paid a price for it. Behn won a crowded and closely divided Democratic primary with only a plurality of the vote. She has been a vocal and unapologetic leftist for much of her public life—so much so that other Democrats call her “the AOC of Tennessee.” Behn’s strong positions and unflinching rhetoric were the subject of significant attention and headlined the GOP campaign against her. A more moderate candidate likely would have made it even closer. That said, it is increasingly difficult for those types of candidates to make it through Democratic primaries.

Farewell to a quiet giant. 84-year old Steve Cropper, the man behind some of America’s most soulful music, has died. Cropper’s unmistakable guitar work on songs like “Green Onions,” “In the Midnight Hour,” and “(Sittin’ On) The Dock of the Bay” helped define the sound of artists like Otis Redding, Wilson Pickett, and Booker T. & The M.G.’s. He never chased the spotlight; he simply made every song deeper, warmer, and impossible to forget.

-Jack O’Donnell

Should NY make choosing natural gas more expensive by ending free natural gas hookups if they are within 100 feet of an existing line?