Striking Back

Good morning from Martha’s Vineyard, Massachusetts.

Redistricting. Drawing district lines, for as much partisan advantage as the market will bear, is the refrain every decade, but with Congress so closely divided and so much at stake, redistricting is very much back.

Texas is moving ahead with an unabashedly partisan (and very unusual) mid-decade redistricting plan (more on that later), and that has Democrats up in arms and has partisans in New York demanding a proportionate response. Instead, those Democratic stalwarts are running into a problem of their own making: the independent redistricting required by the New York Constitution—via recently enacted amendment—also explicitly prohibits mid-decade redistricting. What to do?

Deputy Senate Majority Leader Mike Gianaris and Assembly Member Micah Lasher last week introduced a new Constitutional amendment that would change that and permit New York to redraw its House map mid-decade, but only after another state strikes first. Unfortunately for Democrats, the proposal requires passage from two subsequent legislatures and a vote by the public, and therefore cannot be implemented in time for the 2026 midterm elections. 

Nonetheless, Lasher believes it is a worthwhile exercise, telling reporters, “Unfortunately, given the political environment we live in, the 2028 elections will be high-stakes elections, the 2030 elections will be high-stakes and so forth. We can’t just throw in the towel because the changes can’t be made in time for the election immediately in front of us. That would be incredibly short-sighted.” True.

Both Governor Kathy Hochul and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries have stopped short of publicly calling for New York to redraw congressional districts, but continue to say they are keeping their options open. Stay tuned! 

There is equally heated rhetoric in New York City, where former Governor Andrew Cuomo is taking a different approach, and Mayor Eric Adams continues to campaign aggressively. Their messages are not resonating. 

A new poll from Public Progress Solutions found Democratic mayoral nominee Zohran Mamdani dominating the crowded General Election field. The survey shows Mamdani with 50% support among respondents, with Cuomo at 22%, Republican Curtis Sliwa at 13%, and Adams at 7%. Amit Singh Bagga, the principal of Public Progress Solutions, said, “Our independent poll—the first in this cycle to be offered in four languages and to drill down into national origin and religious denomination—makes one thing clear: Black union households, young Jews, South Asians, East Asians, Latinos, and New Yorkers in every income bracket are all on the same Zohran Mamdani bus, and it’s headed in the direction of the Democratic Party’s future.” 

There is some hope for the Mamdani haters, if Cuomo were to somehow successfully consolidate the General Election field—and face Mamdani head-to-head in November—the poll shows he trails Mamdani 52-40 with likely voters and that Mamdani’s lead shrinks to just 3 points among registered voters. Responding to the survey, Cuomo offered, “The only thing that I think is material for accuracy is what the poll says about the registered voters. As we learned in the primary, when you’re assuming turnout levels, there are many variables.” 

To that point, Mamdani was masterful in motivating both young and new voters in the primary, and there is no reason to think he cannot do the same thing in November, and the anti-Mamdani forces need to find a way to consolidate the field. That has certainly not happened so far.

Of course, a lot can happen between now and Election Day, and last week’s terrible and tragic shooting in midtown will highlight public safety concerns, issues where Cuomo and Adams have standing to challenge Mamdani. Case in point, Cuomo said about the shooting, “This is a reality check: public safety is a matter of life and death. {Mamdani’s} positions when it comes to public safety are abhorrent and wholly disconnected from any responsible government approach.” In a Twitter post after the shooting, Mamdani said, “I’m heartbroken to learn of the horrific shooting in midtown and I am holding the victims, their families, and the NYPD officer in critical condition in my thoughts. Grateful for all of our first responders on the ground.” He is also effectively recalibrating on public safety.

Speaking of Texas, the state legislature released its new congressional map last week that, if enacted, could give the state five new Republican-leaning districts and offer a much clearer path for the GOP to maintain control of the House. The new map would give Republicans a more decisive advantage in two Democratic districts in heavily-Latino areas of the Rio Grande Valley, currently held by Democratic Reps. Henry Cuellar and Vicente Gonzalez. It also combines large parts of two districts currently held by Democrats, setting up a primary matchup between incumbent Democratic Reps. Greg Casar and Lloyd Doggett. Republicans currently hold 25 of the state’s 38 congressional seats, but are projected to win control of at least 30 under the new map.

Democratic governors have vowed to engage in mid-decade redistricting plans of their own if Texas moves forward with its new maps, but the states most likely to take action—California and New York—face a number of legal and procedural hurdles. 

-Jack O’Donnell

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