Pressure Points

Good morning from New York City, where the New York State Financial Control Board (NYSFCB) met last week. The NYSFCB was created by the State Legislature in September 1975 pursuant to the New York State Financial Emergency Act of The City of New York (the "Act"). The Act gives the Control Board powers and responsibilities for review and oversight of the financial management of the New York City government and certain related public authorities. The Control Board includes everyone who is anyone in municipal finance and governance; the state and city comptrollers, the governor, the mayor, and three public members. The role of the NYSFCB today is largely ceremonial, and the stated purpose of the meeting was to formally approve New York City’s budget. Nonetheless, considering the precarious state of municipal finances and the controversy surrounding that budget over the past few months, all eyes were on the NYSFCB.

Mayor Zohran Mamdani was optimistic in describing New York City’s financial situation, quite the contrast from earlier this year when Mamdani pleaded with state lawmakers to raise personal and corporate income tax rates to balance the NYC budget. Sitting alongside Governor Kathy Hochul, Mamdani offered, “We demonstrated the responsible fiscal management needed to address these challenges and to strengthen our budget.” He later added, “There is real cause for optimism.” Mamdani pointed to better-than-expected Wall Street returns and an increase in commercial property leasing as the main drivers of his rosy outlook, while also touting his administration’s efforts to reduce spending by 2.5% by cutting duplicative and outdated services. 

Hochul, keen to avoid a public fight with Mamdani on taxes before the next budget cycle (or an election), touted his efforts, saying, “When the Mayor inherited a significant budget deficit that threatened the services that New York City relies on, I thought it was our responsibility to step up, help City Hall close the gap, get the city on stable financial footing and preserve the city's access to capital markets. That's a win for 8.5 million New York City residents that we both represent. It's a win for all New Yorkers, given the city's important role as an economic engine for the entire state. It has also allowed us to partner and deliver on our shared affordability agenda, advancing universal healthcare, childcare, and helping drive down the cost for New York families.”

However, the staff report and remarks from the FCB’s financial experts make clear that the measures taken to close the budget gap this year did not resolve the underlying structural imbalances (and some of those efforts simply pushed costs into next year). Marjorie Henning, a civilian member of the FCB appointed by Hochul, succinctly summarized the city’s financial outlook, saying, “Expenditures are expected to grow at over twice the rate of revenues; this is simply not sustainable.” That looming imbalance, paired with Mamdani’s desire to deliver on more of his progressive campaign promises, suggests that the fight over tax increases is only on pause. 

In political news, a new Siena University poll, the first public survey of the 2026 gubernatorial campaign to poll likely voters, found Hochul leading her Republican challenger, Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman, by about ten points (49-39%), a dramatic change from a June poll of registered voters that found Hochul leading 52-32%. While a 10-point lead remains healthy, more concerning for Hochul is that she is running behind her fellow statewide Democrats. Attorney General Letitia James (D) leads her challenger, Saritha Komatireddy (R), 54-36%, and State Comptroller Tom DiNapoli (D) leads Joseph Hernandez (R) 55-32%. Hochul is also lagging behind the 16-point edge that Democrats maintain on a generic congressional ballot. Democrats are not panicking yet, at least in public, and have pointed to Hochul’s commanding fundraising lead, a powerful asset that she has not begun to deploy. As of July, Hochul and the state party combined had more than $40 million on hand, compared to Blakeman’s $4.6 million. State Democratic Chair Jay Jacobs believes Trump’s unpopularity will turn people off to the GOP ticket altogether, telling reporters, “Trump is going to be an anchor that will bring Bruce Blakeman down. His record and what he stands for will be his undoing, but tying himself to Trump will make him sink deeper.” Hochul’s support dipped in the NYC suburbs and with unaffiliated or blank voters—changes likely tied to broader concerns voters have about crime and public safety, far-left Democrats (notably including Democratic Socialists) winning primaries and dominating the news, and a challenging environment for incumbents—and less explicably with younger voters (who move to undecided rather than to Blakeman).

If Trump is a challenge for the GOP’s effort to retake the Governor’s mansion, no one told the candidate. Blakeman hosted Trump in Nassau County on Friday, where they toured the Nassau County Police Academy with Attorney General Todd Blanche and FBI Director Kash Patel, a visit that quickly turned into a campaign rally focusing heavily on crime, immigration, and law enforcement.

Blakeman, who has made public safety and his partnership with federal immigration authorities central to his campaign, welcomed the high-profile endorsement. “Thank you, Mr. President, for sealing our borders,” Blakeman said, pointing to Trump’s immigration agenda and Nassau’s cooperation with federal authorities.

Trump devoted much of his speech to attacking Democrats as extremists who would lead the country into squalor and communism if elected in the midterms. He closed with a pointed message for Blakeman: “How the hell can you lose to that?” Trump said. “If you lose, you’re going to be ashamed for the rest of your life.”

Across the pond, voters from Clacton have returned Reform UK leader Nigel Farage to Parliament, a step he hopes will bring him closer to becoming the U.K.’s next Prime Minister. In an effort to dim Farage’s star, Britain’s main political parties declined to stand, leaving the field to the rich British tradition of standing up satirical candidates in elections. The result was 34 names on the ballot, including Farage’s main opponent, Count Binface (other candidates included Howling Laud Hope, Nick the Incredible Flying Brick, and Baron Von Thunderclap).

Farage, a close ally of President Trump and the architect of Brexit, held on to his seat with 63 percent of the vote. Count Binface managed a quite remarkable 27 percent. Turnout for the race was estimated to be around 44 percent. Citing security concerns, Farage skipped the traditional vote count. Local police denied there was any threat.

The election came amid the backdrop of a Parliamentary investigation into Farage’s alleged failure to declare millions of pounds of donations in the run-up to his 2024 election. Farage leaned into the allegations and said voters should ultimately decide whether there was any impropriety; nonetheless, a Parliamentary investigation will now continue. Farage also, implicitly, declared Count Binface—who claims to be from outer space, promised to “Nationalize Adele,” end VAR, and build affordable housing . . . maybe three—the establishment candidate. Watch Count Binface’s speech regarding coming first in the Clacton by-election (of the candidates who bothered to turn up for the results) here.

-Jack O’Donnell

Senate Minority Leader Senator Rob Ortt recently met with the leadership team at OD&A client, Horizon Health Services, to discuss the organization’s work expanding access to behavioral health and substance use disorder services across Western New York. The conversation offered an opportunity to hear directly from Horizon’s leaders about the challenges facing the behavioral healthcare system and the importance of continued support for the people and communities they serve.

OD&A Senior Associate Michael Greco hit the links at Senator Pat Gallivan’s annual golf outing, joining business and community leaders from across the region for a day of golf, conversation, and connection. A great day on and off the course!