The Dark Horse

Good morning from Vineyard Haven, Massachusetts. 

The biggest political news is Vice President Kamala Harris’s selection of Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate. Walz was close to unknown on the national level three weeks ago (though we pegged him as a dark horse contender), but online popularity from his straight talk and “Midwest Dad” vibes quickly catapulted him to the top of Harris’s shortlist. Here is where Walz stood out: 

• Before running for office, Walz was a high school geography teacher and State championship winning football coach who, in addition to teaching and coaching, volunteered to serve as the first faculty advisor to the school’s gay-straight alliance. Walz is also a veteran, having served in the Army National Guard for 24 years, and is an avid hunter and gun owner who supports common sense gun laws. 

• Walz arguably has the most governing experience of the finalists. After defeating a six-term Republican incumbent in a solidly purple district in Southern Minnesota in 2006, Walz went on to serve in Congress for twelve years before being elected Governor in 2018. As Governor, Walz has been able to enact progressive priorities such as free breakfast and lunch in public schools and legislation protecting the right to reproductive care, despite Minnesota’s more moderate electoral makeup and close margins in the State Legislature.

• Walz is also a strong communicator and effective messenger, having coined the “weird” attack against the Trump/Vance ticket which seems to have struck a nerve within the GOP. Walz has shown a willingness to go on the offensive against Republicans, specifically J.D. Vance. He has repeatedly appeared on television, podcasts, and other media outlets to push back on Vance and to appeal to white working class voters in key Midwest swing states. One of Walz’s most viral moments of the campaign came from his first rally as the VP nominee where he made reference to an online joke involving Vance and furniture.

The two men do, however, share a mutual love and respect for Diet Mountain Dew. 

Walz also reportedly had the best personal dynamic with Harris, especially when compared with the one-on-one meeting she had with one other VP finalist, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro. Shapiro’s team left the meeting with “not a great feeling,” which was reinforced when Shapiro followed up with a call where he told the Harris team he was “struggling with the decision to leave his current job as governor, in order to seek the vice presidency.” 

Given the abbreviated campaign timeline, the vetting process and Harris’ decision-making moved quickly. Her vetting team, led by Campaign Chair Jen O’Malley Dillon and former Attorney General Eric Holder, met with six candidates over Zoom in late July—Walz, Shapiro, Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear, Arizona Senator Mark Kelly, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, and Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker. After the initial vetting was over, a panel of close Harris advisors that included former Labor Secretary Marty Walsh, campaign advisor Cedric Richmond, and Nevada Senator Catherine Cortez Masto, met with the finalists again on Friday. By Saturday, Kelley, Shapiro, and Walz were invited to the Naval Observatory for a personal meeting with Harris, who told staff she wanted to sleep on it on Sunday night before making her decision. 

Another interesting political tidbit from the vetting process—Walz was one of 17 Democrats to vote to hold Attorney General Eric Holder in contempt of Congress in 2012 for refusing to comply with a subpoena, but the past-vote evidently had no bearing on Holder’s vetting of Walz. 

In New York, Harris is faring much better than President Biden who held a lackluster 8-point lead over Trump in the decidedly blue State before deciding to forgo reelection. In a new Siena College Poll, Harris has a 14-point lead over Trump (54%-39%), which Democrats are hoping will boost voter turnout and help Democrats down ballot, especially in key Congressional swing districts. Harris has seen her favorability skyrocket, up from 42% in October 2023 to 53% in the latest poll, and Harris is solidifying Democrats, including a lead with Black voters of 81%-11% compared to Biden’s 59%-29% from June.  

Governor Kathy Hochul’s approval rating continues to sag, despite widespread support for some of her more recent, high-profile policy initiatives. Hochul’s favorability rating did rise 1 point (39%-50% compared to 38%-49% in June), but Hochul hit 50% of voters viewing her unfavorably for the first time since becoming Governor. However, her push to ban smartphones in classrooms is supported by an overwhelming margin of 58%-36%, including both Republicans and Democrats. Similarly, her decision to pause the implementation of congestion pricing in Manhattan is viewed favorably across every region and demographic group—Republicans (68%), Democrats (56%) and independents (54%), all support the congestion pricing reversal. 

In other political news, prominent Progressive Rep. Cori Bush (D-Mo.) lost her primary race to St. Louis County Prosecutor Wesley Bell last week. Bush, a member of the liberal “Squad,” has been an outspoken critic of Israel and has faced criticism for being more worried about national politics than constituent issues in her district. Bush’s hardline opposition to Israel led to a number of pro-Israel PACs financially supporting her opponent, but Bell’s campaign portrayed Bush as an ineffective legislator rather than focusing on the war in Gaza. Most of Bell’s ads and campaign messaging centered on Bush’s vote against the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law and the Child Tax Credit, two enormously popular Democratic initiatives.  In an interview, Bell said, “I’ll be a progressive member of Congress, but I’m also going to be a practical member of Congress. I recognize that we can’t get anything done without majorities, and so that means we need to work with our fellow Democrats up there, and when we can, reach across the aisle and work with folks to get things done for this region and for this country.”

In Michigan, former Rep. Mike Rodgers defeated former U.S. Rep. Justin Amash and physician and former Congressional candidate Dr. Sherry O’Donnell in the Republican primary for Senate. Rodgers, who more or less sealed up the nomination when he was endorsed by Trump in March, will now run against current Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin. Michigan is rated as a true “toss up” by the Cook Political Report, but Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and national Democrats believe Slotkin, a former CIA analyst and rising star in the Democratic Party, has the ability to appeal to Michigan’s moderate voters that are likely to decide the election. This is a race to watch.

-Jack O’Donnell

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