Upping the Ante

Good morning from Martha’s Vineyard, Massachusetts. 

Redistricting. Redistricting continues to be the word of the day, and, depending on where this goes, it may be the word of the year!

From a new map in Texas, the redistricting battle has expanded across the country, and now House Republicans—with the full encouragement of President Donald Trump—are looking to add a dozen or more House seats. In addition to the five seats in Texas, the GOP is targeting three new seats in Florida, one each in Missouri and Indiana, as well as two or three in Ohio. A Supreme Court decision on redistricting in Louisiana under the 1965 Voting Rights Act could also yield a more favorable Republican map.

Trump and his political team are doing everything they can to avoid a Democratic House and cushion the usual cyclical turn of midterms against the party in power. This is to prevent the endless investigations, spending showdowns, and potential impeachments from a Democratic House, as well as to ensure that the GOP-run House would remain an effective arm of the White House, continuing to let Trump drive the agenda.

Democrats have their hands tied; between ceding power to independent redistricting commissions and, frankly, effective gerrymandering of their own, Democrats have limited options.

California Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom—a 2028 hopeful—has a plan. However, the plan requires voters to back his efforts in a special election, an expensive and uncertain prospect, but one that could yield five new blue seats, possibly negating the proposed Texas map.

Other possibilities for Democrats? 

• Perhaps one seat in Maryland, but a court shot down a similar map in 2022 as an illegal partisan gerrymander.

• Maybe Illinois, although Democrats have already heavily gerrymandered the state in their favor.

• Democrats could, perhaps, get favorable court rulings in Wisconsin and Utah, but that remains to be seen.

• Other blue states would have to amend their constitutions to play. The deadline has passed to do this before the 2026 elections in New Jersey and Colorado. Democrats lack the votes in Washington State.

What does all that mean? 

It looks fairly easy for Republicans to get 12 or more new seats. Democrats can get two or three without amending a state constitution, and as many as eight if Newsom’s California plan works. This could mean the difference between a GOP-held House and a Speaker Hakeem Jeffries.

Back in New York, Governor Kathy Hochul is also up in arms: in an op-ed in the Houston Chronicle, Hochul wrote, “Up until now, Democrats have treated our political system like it’s still governed by norms, guarded by limits and rooted in fairness. Rules were meant to be followed. It hurts to say it, but that era has come to an end.” Hochul also hosted several members of the Texas House in an effort to elevate their cause.

While their options are limited for 2026, New York Democrats are planning ahead: Deputy Senate Majority Leader Mike Gianaris and Assembly Member Micah Lasher introduced a new constitutional amendment permitting New York to redraw its House map mid-decade, but only after another state strikes first. The proposal requires passage from two subsequent legislatures, as well as an affirmative vote by the public. Therefore, the soonest it could be implemented would be in time for the 2028 midterm elections.

It is also worth noting that another important consequence of this gerrymandering frenzy is that it will further accelerate the extinction of political moderates, as their swing districts disappear, and an already hyper-partisan Congress will become even further divided. Any hope of compromise will disappear as members focus on primary threats from the extreme wings of both parties.

That may explain why many frontline GOP members—especially those who may become collateral damage—are not joining President Trump and House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) in calling for a redistricting fight. In New York, Reps. Mike Lawler, Nicole Malliotakis, and Nick LaLota are all at risk if New York engages in retaliatory redistricting. Lawler, reading the writing on the wall, introduced legislation last week to ban “partisan gerrymandering and mid-decade redistricting.” Lawler added, “This is fundamentally why Congress is broken. There are very few competitive districts, resulting in most members focusing on primaries rather than engaging in a general election.” Malliotakis has also urged her GOP colleagues to exercise caution, offering, “I may differ in opinion from many of my colleagues on this, particularly the ones from Texas. I’m not somebody who’s supportive of any type of gerrymandering.”

Hochul, for one, is not buying the principled grandstanding from her state’s GOP congressional delegation, particularly Lawler, saying, “This is a guy who’s now saying, ‘I’m going to introduce a bill to get it changed.’ The same guy who promised a full restoration of the state and local tax deduction comes back far short of that and spins it as a win that everybody's buying. He has no power. He won't get it done. And I'm not sympathetic because he was silent.” 

Politics aside, there is at least ONE thing New York Democrats and Republicans agree on: the need for the Trump administration to maintain the Medicaid revenue the state generates from a new tax on managed care organizations, known as the MCO tax. The plan, which received final approval in the waning days of the Biden Administration, allows New York to implement a new tax on managed care organizations reimbursed using federal matching funds. Now, a new proposed rule from the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) would revoke the reimbursement authorization from states that have received approval within the last two years, including New York. That decision would put a $3.7 billion hole in New York’s budget over the next two years, with nursing homes, slated to receive $830 million, as the biggest losers. All seven GOP House members from New York signed onto a joint letter urging the Trump Administration to spare the MCO tax, writing, “The proposed rule would effectively invalidate New York’s newly approved Managed Care Organization (MCO) tax immediately, while permitting older arrangements in other states to be phased out over time. This approach undermines the flexibility Congress included and would place hospitals, nursing homes, and other healthcare providers in New York at a serious disadvantage. Implementing the full transition period would provide a fair and balanced path forward, allowing providers to adapt while upholding the policy’s long-term goals.” Whether Trump and his newly appointed CMS Director, Dr. Mehmet Oz, get behind that approach remains to be seen. 

-Jack O’Donnell

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Should New York State revisit redistricting ahead of the 10-year cycle in response to similar action in Texas?

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